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Morning Briefing The US Treasury Yields seem to be struggling to sustain the bounce. That still keeps the downside open to test their support. Broadly, we expect the support to hold and the yields to rise eventually. The CPI data release will need a watch today. The German Yields have risen back again. They are oscillating in a range now. Bias is positive to see a bullish breakout and a fresh rise eventually. The 10Yr GoI has bounced. But a strong rise above the immediate resistance is needed to go higher and avoid falling back again.
GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US CPI

US CPI

US Headline CPI - YoY (%)        
  Expectation  
Date For Market Kshitij Prev Release Rev
13-Feb-26 Jan-26 - 2.85 2.65 2.39 -
11-Mar-26 Feb-26 2.50 2.51 2.39 2.43 -
10-Apr-26 Mar-26 3.40 2.96 2.43 3.29 -
12-May-26 Apr-26 - 3.82 3.29 - -
US Headline CPI - MoM (%)        
  Expectation  
Date For Market Kshitij Prev Release Rev
13-Feb-26 Jan-26 0.30 0.19 0.30 0.17 -
11-Mar-26 Feb-26 0.30 0.12 0.17 0.27 -
10-Apr-26 Mar-26 1.00 0.81 0.27 0.87 -
12-May-26 Apr-26 - 0.57 0.87 - -
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March '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast
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Mar '26 Monthly Forecast
Our March '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
March'26 EURUSD Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Mar'26 EURUSD Report
Our view of a fall towards 1.14 seems to be playing out well so far as the tensions in the Middle East and the US-Iran conflict have triggered a rise in Dollar Index and crude oil prices, thereby weakening to Euro to 1.1507 so far in Mar-26. Will it again attempt to rise targeting 1.20? Or will it remain below 1.19/20 now and see an eventual decline to 1.10? ...Read More
January'26 USDJPY Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 USDJPY Report
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More
April'26 GOI Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Apr'26 GOI Report
In our 09-Mar-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.69%) we had warned that the sharp rise in crude due to the US-Iran conflict could push Brent toward $134, which would lift CPI toward ~6.2%, eliminating any chance of RBI easing, and potentially force tightening. This inflation shock, along with higher US yields, was expected to push the 10Yr GOI up to ... Read More
April'26 Crude Oil Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Apr'26 Crude Oil Report
The escalation of war between US and Iran throughout March-26 has led to a rally in Brent prices to as high as $119.50, exceeding our bullish targets by a large margin, much ahead of expected time. Will it remain bullish for the coming years? ... Read More
Apr '26 US Treasury Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Apr '26 US Treasury Report
In our last report (27-Feb-26, UST10Yr 4.01%), which was published just one day before the start of the US-Israel-Iran War on 28-Feb, we had continued to target 4.60% on the US10Yr based on expectations of higher Crude. At that time, we were looking for Brent to rise .... Read More
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