Kshitij US Treasury Reports - Kshitij.com
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US Treasury Forecast
US Treasury Report
Overview
The Kshitij US Treasury Forecast covers movement in US Treasury bond yields and analyses its possible impact on Global Markets providing a macro view of the Global Economy.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:
  • Technical Price Charts of US Treasury yield across all tenors.
  • US yield differential and yield curve analysis
  • Correlations of US yields with commodity & currency markets
  • Fundamental economic data and their impact on the overall economy
  • Major updates from the FED impacting interest rates and the economy
July'24 US Treasury Report

July'24 US Treasury Report

In our Jun-24 report (29-May-24, US10Yr @ 4.57%), we were looking for the US10Yr to dip to 4.1% in June and bounce back to 4.6% by October. In line with the short-term view, Yields have come down across the Curve and the US10Yr saw a low of 4.20% on 17-Jun. We had also said that a fall in the US10Yr to 4.0-3.8% might happen if there is a growth slowdown.

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June'24 US Treasury Report

June'24 US Treasury Report

In our last report (01-May-24, US10Yr @ 4.69%), we were looking for the US2Yr to dip towards 4.5% and the US10Yr to dip towards 4.2%. In line with our expectation, the 2Yr dipped to a low of 4.71% and the 10Yr came down to a low of 4.31% after the US Unemployment rose to 3.9% and Crude prices came down a bit and remained subdued through May till now.

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May'24 US Treasury Report

May'24 US Treasury Report

In our last report (26-Mar-24, US10Yr @ 4.25%), we were looking for the US10Yr to fall towards 3.8-3.5%, based on expectations of a fall in Crude and softer US data. However, we were wrong on both counts as Brent Crude ($86.33) rose to a high of $92.18 and US data, especially inflation data, came out much stronger than expected.

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April'24 US Treasury Report

April'24 US Treasury Report

In our last report (23-Feb-24, US10Yr @ 4.25%), we had laid out our near term view (that the ongoing rise in the US10Yr may/ may not extend up to 4.5%), our medium term view (that the US10Yr can still fall to 3.5%) and our long term view of a rise towards 5.0% and higher going into 2025.

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March'24 US Treasury Report

March'24 US Treasury Report

In our last report (26-Jan-24, US10Yr @ 4.14%), we had suggested that the rise in Yields since 2020 could be like the one seen in 1967-1972, with more upside possible in the long term going into 2025. Within that we also said that the fall in US10Yr since 5.01% (Oct-23)could be an A-B-C correction. Within that, again, the immediate ongoing rally from 3.82% (28-Dec) could be the B-leg which might extend up to 4.5% and thereafter the C-leg (yet to commence) can target 3.5%.

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February'24 US Treasury Report

February'24 US Treasury Report

In our last report (26-Dec-23, US 10Yr @ 3.88%) we were looking for US Yields to dip to 4.04% and 3.5% on the US2Yr and US10Yr respectively in the near term. Instead, the US2Yr remained more or less steady while the US10Yr rose a decent bit as the market found that it was possibly a little ahead of the FED in its expectations of when and how much the FED would cut rates in 2024. Currently both the market and the FOMC Members seem to be debating this question.

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January'24 US Treasury Report

January'24 US Treasury Report

In our last report (27-Nov-23, US 10Yr @ 4.425%) we were looking for US Yields to rise to 5.10% in the near term before falling again in H1-24. However, that did not happen and instead the Yields continued to fall without respite. In our Dec-23 report, we had become bullish on Crude compared to our Nov-23 report, but instead of rising, Brent broke below $80 to see a low of $72.29 before bouncing back a bit. In a bit of a “goldilocks” development, the Nov-23 Unemployment surprised by dipping to 3.7% from 3.9% in Oct-23 while the Nov-23 CPI dipped further to 3.12%.

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December ' 23 US Treasury Report

December ' 23 US Treasury Report

In our last report (24-Oct-23, US 10Yr @ 4.85%) we had said that Brent can range between $80-100, the US 10Yr and 2Yr Yields can dip and the 10-2Yr Spread can rise. As it turns out, (A) Brent ($81.62) indeed saw a fall to the lower end of the $80-100 range and a false dip to $76.60 and has bounced back up from there, so the $80-100 range is still in play, (B) US Yields did indeed dip as expected, but the 10-2Yr Spread fell instead of rising.

July '24 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast
WHAT'S NEW?
July '24 Quarterly Forecast
Our July '24 Quarterly Dollar-Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
July '24 EURUSD Report
WHAT'S NEW?
July '24 EURUSD Report
The Euro has risen well in July, especially after a lower US CPI data as the Dollar Index declined sharply. Will the Euro continue its current rise beyond 1.09? EURJPY has fallen sharply from 175.42 last week. Will it continue to decline from here? Or could there be some more upside to 180/182 before reversing? ...Read More
July'24 Crude Oil Report
WHAT'S NEW?
July'24 Crude Oil Report
Brent fell to test $76.76 in the beginning of June-24 after the OPEC extended its production cuts for Q3-2024 but the price has managed to rise from there by the end of the month. How long will the $70-90 sideways range hold? Thereafter which side is the breakout likely? ... Read More
July '24 US Treasury Report
WHAT'S NEW?
July '24 US Treasury Report
In our Jun-24 report (29-May-24, US10Yr @ 4.57%), we were looking for the US10Yr to dip to 4.1% in June and bounce back to 4.6% by October. In line with the short-term view, Yields have come down across the Curve and the US10Yr saw a low of 4.20% on 17-Jun. We had also said that .... Read More
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