Kshitij US Treasury Reports - Kshitij.com
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US Treasury Forecast
US Treasury Report
Overview
The Kshitij US Treasury Forecast covers movement in US Treasury bond yields and analyses its possible impact on Global Markets providing a macro view of the Global Economy.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:
  • Technical Price Charts of US Treasury yield across all tenors.
  • US yield differential and yield curve analysis
  • Correlations of US yields with commodity & currency markets
  • Fundamental economic data and their impact on the overall economy
  • Major updates from the FED impacting interest rates and the economy
April'25 US Treasury Report

April'25 US Treasury Report

In line with expectations in our last report (07-Mar-25, UST10Yr 4.27%), Yields have come down across the Curve. Although the Citi Surprise Index moving up during the month, the economic data has been mixed. While the IIP, Capacity Utilisation and Retail Sales have risen by varying degrees, the Consumer Confidence has fallen sharply to 92.90. Of the two most important variables that the FED watches, Unemployment has risen slightly to 4.1% but the Core PCE has also risen to 2.79% for February, from 2.66% for January. Yields have fallen sharply after Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements yesterday (2nd/ 3rd April, 2025).

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March'25 US Treasury Report

March'25 US Treasury Report

As per the more preferred path in our last report (03-Feb-25, UST10Yr 4.55%) we were looking for the US10Yr to rise to 5.25% by May-25. This does not seem to be working out just. Rather, the alternative less preferred path, wherein the US10Yr could fall in Feb-25 itself, seems to be working out better. The US10-2Yr Spread (0.30%) has also fallen, contrary to our expectation of a rise. Economic data such as Personal Income, US Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence have fallen as expected.

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February'25 US Treasury Report

February'25 US Treasury Report

Assuming greater chances of a slowdown rather than a recession, we project the US10Yr to rise towards 5.25% (May-25), followed by a dip towards 4.55% (Jul-25) and then another rise back towards 5.25% (Jan-26). The 10-2Yr Spread can steepen. Some factors suggesting a slowdown are discussed. Yet, the US10Yr may rise as it has a positive correlation with Inflation Expectations, which is in an uptrend.

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January'25 US Treasury Report

January'25 US Treasury Report

Yields have risen across the Curve in line with the anticipations in our Dec-24 report (30-Nov-24, UST10Y 4.18%).Both the US5Yr and US10Yr have risen well as expected. Even the US2Yr has risen, but the rise is a little muted so far. As a result, contrary to expectation, the Curve has steepened more with the US10-2Yr Spread rising instead of dipping. The FOMC delivered one more rate cut, contrary to our expectation of a pause, but has reduced its anticipation of rate cuts for 2025.

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December'24 US Treasury Report

December'24 US Treasury Report

In our Nov-24 report (31-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 4.26%), we had said that it was possible that the FED may cut rates by at least another 50bp in 2024; that the fall in the US10Yr from 5.02% is over and an immediate dip from 4.4% to 4.0-3.8% could give way to an eventual rise past 4.8% towards 5.0%. In line with that, the FED did cut rates by 25bp in November. Although the US 10Yr rose to 4.50% during November on the back of strong US data, it has also fallen back to 4.26%, in line with our expectation of a fall towards 4.0-3.8%.

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November'24 US Treasury Report

November'24 US Treasury Report

In our Oct-24 report (01-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 3.79%), we had said that in contrast with history, there were no immediate signs of a US recession and the earlier it could set in might be in Jan-Mar 2025, or maybe even later. We also favored just a slowdown, or at most a shallow recession. In accordance with this, the US data in October has been mixed to strong, with Unemployment falling and Average Hourly Earnings and Consumer Confidence rising.
April '25 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast
WHAT'S NEW?
Apr '25 Quarterly Forecast
Our April '25 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
April'25 EURUSD Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Apr'25 EURUSD Report
Admist Global trade tariff announcements, market volatility ECB rate cut expectations and economic growth concerns will the Euro manage to hold below the immediate resistance near 1.12? Or will the global scenario force the Euro to surge beyond 1.12? ...Read More
April'25 Crude Oil Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Apr'25 Crude Oil Report
Brent has been narrowing its trade range since Oct-23, keeping its bottom floored near $67/68 region. Will the Mar-25 low of $68.33 hold and help the crude prices to move up to the higher end of the range in the coming months? Or will global scenario impact crude and force it to break below the $68/67 floor? ... Read More
April '25 US Treasury Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Apr '25 US Treasury Report
In line with expectations in our last report (07-Mar-25, UST10Yr 4.27%), Yields have come down across the Curve. Although the Citi Surprise Index moving up during the month, the economic data has been mixed. While the IIP, Capacity Utilisation and Retail Sales have risen by varying .... Read More
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