Kshitij US Treasury Reports - Kshitij.com

Kshitij US Treasury Reports - Kshitij.com

US Treasury Forecast

US Treasury Report

Overview
The Kshitij US Treasury Forecast covers movement in US Treasury bond yields and analyses its possible impact on Global Markets providing a macro view of the Global Economy.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:

Technical Price Charts of US Treasury yield across all tenors.
US yield differential and yield curve analysis
Correlations of US yields with commodity & currency markets
Fundamental economic data and their impact on the overall economy
Major updates from the FED impacting interest rates and the economy

December'23 US Treasury Report

December ' 23 US Treasury Report

In our last report (24-Oct-23, US 10Yr @ 4.85%) we had said that Brent can range between $80-100, the US 10Yr and 2Yr Yields can dip and the 10-2Yr Spread can rise. As it turns out, (A) Brent ($81.62) indeed saw a fall to the lower end of the $80-100 range and a false dip to $76.60 and has bounced back up from there, so the $80-100 range is still in play, (B) US Yields did indeed dip as expected, but the 10-2Yr Spread fell instead of rising.

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November'23 US Treasury Report

November ' 23 US Treasury Report

We see US Yields ripe for a fall. The US2Yr (5.08%) has Resistance at 5.25% and 5.35%. While these hold, there can be chances of a break below 5.0%. If so, the 2Yr can come down towards 4.5%, maybe 4.25%.

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October'23 US Treasury Report

October ' 23 US Treasury Report

Since 2006, generally a rising Real Yield is accompanied by falling Gold and falling Real Yield by rising Gold, except for the periods marked in the two broken red boxes. In these two times we see Gold rising despite a sharp increase in the Real Yields.

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September'23 US Treasury Report

September ' 23 US Treasury Report

We have been examining the market’s Inflation Expectation (as represented by the 10Yr Breakeven Inflation Expectation or BIE, currently at 2.33%) in our reports since May-23 and have said that the BIE can possibly remain above 2% and slowly rise towards 2.50-3.0% in the coming months. It is up from 2.18% in Apr-23. Can it rise further?

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August'23 US Treasury Report

August ' 23 US Treasury Report

The US Unemployment Rate is on the cusp of a rise. Whenever the Unemployment Y/Y% change has risen from sub-zero levels and moved higher (as in Dec-2000 and Jun-2007, see vertical green lines), Unemployment Rate has subsequently risen.

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July'23 US Treasury Report

July ' 23 US Treasury Report

We’d said that the Hourly Earnings Growth Rate (HEGR) may remain above 3.5%. The HEGR has remained between 4.30-4.35% for March-May. It might dip to 4.25%-4.11% in June-July, but still remain above 3.5%.

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June'23 US Treasury Report

June ' 23 US Treasury Report

In our Apr-23 report (27-Mar-23, US10Yr @ 3.44%) we had said that (A) the FED’s 2% inflation target is an arbitrary number which was possibly based on the benign post-1980 world of economic co-operation and declining inflation and that (B) it would seem difficult for CPI to keep coming down towards the Fed’s targets of 3.3% (2023), 2.5% (2024) and 2.1% (2025).It is good to see our view being echoed by marquee names like Mohamed A. El-Erian and Gita Gopinath, First MD of IMF.

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May'23 US Treasury Report

May ' 23 US Treasury Report

Since our last report (27-Mar-23, US 10Yr @ 3.38%) US Yields have moved up across the Curve despite the FED raising rates by only 25bp instead of the expected 50bp. Can US10Yr dip to 3.0% before rise?

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April'23 US Treasury Report

April ' 23 US Treasury Report

Since our last report (01-Mar-23, US 10Yr @ 3.95%) the collapse of the SVB and other banks in the USA, the collapse of Credit Suisse in Switzerland, and the teetering of Deutsche Bank in Germany, along with the rescue plans for each of them, have dominated the news.

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March'23 US Treasury Report

March ' 23 US Treasury Report

In our last report (30-Jan-23, US 10Yr @ 3.53%), we had said that a recession (which was the talk of the market at that time), might kick-in earliest by Oct-23 and as such, the FED may not cut rates in 2023. We had also said that the US 2Yr could still rise towards 5.25%, while the US 10Yr could still rise towards 4.00%. Since then, the talk of recession has faded away and instead the talk is about the persistence of inflation

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February'23 US Treasury Report

February ' 23 US Treasury Report

Since our last report (27-Dec-22, US 10Yr @ 3.75%) the Core PCE (4.42%, Dec-22) has dipped further. The entire Yield Curve has shifted lower by 14-26 bp since the last report. In particular, the US 10Yr dipped to 3.36% on 19-Jan, almost in line with our expectation of a fall towards 3.25%. The 10-2Yr Spread (-0.69%) has dipped again seeing a of -0.72% in January, in line with our target of -1.0%.

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January'23 US Treasury Report

January ' 23 US Treasury Report

Since our last report (25-Nov-22, US 10Yr @ 3.67%) the US Fed Funds Rate has risen by 50bp in Dec, in line with expectation. The Core PCE (4.68%, Nov-22) has dipped below 5%, mirroring the dip in the Core CPI. The US 10Yr dipped to 3.46% on 08-Dec but has risen well since then, going against our expectation of a fall towards 3%. The 10-2Yr Spread (-0.57%) has surprised by bouncing well from -0.8% (02-Dec) instead of falling further towards our target of -1.0%.

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Dec '22 US Treasury Report

Dec ' 22 US Treasury Report

Since our last report (US 10Yr @ 4.014% on 28-Oct-22), the FOMC has raised the FFR by 75bp (on 02-Nov), the US Unemployment Rate has increased a bit to 3.7% from 3.5% and Wage growth rate has dipped to 4.73% from 4.98% (on 04-Nov), while the Core CPI has dipped a bit to 6.31% from 6.66% (on 10-Nov). Due to these, the US bond yields have softened a little.

November'23 Monthly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov'23 Monthly Forecast

Our November'23 Monthly Dollar-Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

November '23 EURUSD Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '23 EURUSD Report

Euro inflation has been falling over the past few months but the ECB now looks at a possible pause in the falling inflation to stabilize or show some uptick over the next few months. Real yields have moved up sharply but ...Read More

Dec'23 Crude Oil Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Dec'23 Crude Oil Report

Global oil demand-supply Gap is projected to be stable to slightly bearish for the next 5-quarters (by EIA) but the forecast remain at elevated levels above -0.50. Will this pull up crude prices in 2024? ... Read More

December'23 US Treasury Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Dec'23 US Treasury Report

In our last report (24-Oct-23, US 10Yr @ 4.85%) we had said that Brent can range between $80-100, the US 10Yr and 2Yr Yields can dip and the 10-2Yr Spread can rise. As it turns out, (A) Brent ($81.62) indeed saw a fall to the lower end of the $80-100 range and a false dip to $76.60 and has bounced back up from there, so the $80-100 range is still in play .... Read More

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