Kshitij US Treasury Reports - Kshitij.com

Kshitij US Treasury Reports - Kshitij.com

US Treasury Forecast

US Treasury Report

Overview
The Kshitij US Treasury Forecast covers movement in US Treasury bond yields and analyses its possible impact on Global Markets providing a macro view of the Global Economy.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:

Technical Price Charts of US Treasury yield across all tenors.
US yield differential and yield curve analysis
Correlations of US yields with commodity & currency markets
Fundamental economic data and their impact on the overall economy
Major updates from the FED impacting interest rates and the economy

March'25 US Treasury Report

March'25 US Treasury Report

As per the more preferred path in our last report (03-Feb-25, UST10Yr 4.55%) we were looking for the US10Yr to rise to 5.25% by May-25. This does not seem to be working out just. Rather, the alternative less preferred path, wherein the US10Yr could fall in Feb-25 itself, seems to be working out better. The US10-2Yr Spread (0.30%) has also fallen, contrary to our expectation of a rise. Economic data such as Personal Income, US Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence have fallen as expected.

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February'25 US Treasury Report

February'25 US Treasury Report

Assuming greater chances of a slowdown rather than a recession, we project the US10Yr to rise towards 5.25% (May-25), followed by a dip towards 4.55% (Jul-25) and then another rise back towards 5.25% (Jan-26). The 10-2Yr Spread can steepen. Some factors suggesting a slowdown are discussed. Yet, the US10Yr may rise as it has a positive correlation with Inflation Expectations, which is in an uptrend.

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January'25 US Treasury Report

January'25 US Treasury Report

Yields have risen across the Curve in line with the anticipations in our Dec-24 report (30-Nov-24, UST10Y 4.18%).Both the US5Yr and US10Yr have risen well as expected. Even the US2Yr has risen, but the rise is a little muted so far. As a result, contrary to expectation, the Curve has steepened more with the US10-2Yr Spread rising instead of dipping. The FOMC delivered one more rate cut, contrary to our expectation of a pause, but has reduced its anticipation of rate cuts for 2025.

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December'24 US Treasury Report

December'24 US Treasury Report

In our Nov-24 report (31-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 4.26%), we had said that it was possible that the FED may cut rates by at least another 50bp in 2024; that the fall in the US10Yr from 5.02% is over and an immediate dip from 4.4% to 4.0-3.8% could give way to an eventual rise past 4.8% towards 5.0%. In line with that, the FED did cut rates by 25bp in November. Although the US 10Yr rose to 4.50% during November on the back of strong US data, it has also fallen back to 4.26%, in line with our expectation of a fall towards 4.0-3.8%.

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November'24 US Treasury Report

November'24 US Treasury Report

In our Oct-24 report (01-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 3.79%), we had said that in contrast with history, there were no immediate signs of a US recession and the earlier it could set in might be in Jan-Mar 2025, or maybe even later. We also favored just a slowdown, or at most a shallow recession. In accordance with this, the US data in October has been mixed to strong, with Unemployment falling and Average Hourly Earnings and Consumer Confidence rising.

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October'24 US Treasury Report

October'24 US Treasury Report

Since our Sep-24 report (29-Aug-24, US10Yr @ 3.84%), Crude (WTI $68.22) has remained below earlier support now resistance; Inflation is mixed (PCE down a bit from 2.65% to 2.37% but Core PCE up a bit to 2.82% to 2.86%); surprisingly Unemployment has inched lower from 4.3% to 4.2% and the US Fed has cut the FFR by 50bp to 5.0%. The Yield Curve has steepened with the US 10-2 Yield Spread moving up from -0.03% to +0.18%.

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September'24 US Treasury Report

September'24 US Treasury Report

In our Aug-24 report (31-Jul-24, US10Yr @ 4.14%), we were looking for the US10Yr to consolidated between 4.1-4.4% in August, before falling to 4.0-3.8% by Sep-Oct. As it turns out, there was no consolidation in August and the 10Yr has already fallen to 3.8%. The 2Yr has also fallen below 4% and the 10-2Yr Spread (-0.03%) hovers just below 0%. Powell has signalled a rate cut in September

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August'24 US Treasury Report

August'24 US Treasury Report

In our Jul-24 report (28-Jun-24, US10Yr @ 4.32%), we were looking for the US10Yr to fall to 4.20% in July and to 4.12% in August, for the US2Yr to fall to 4.45% and for the US10-2Yr Spread to rise to -0.3%, or maybe -0.2%. That is largely how the market has played out so far with the US10Yr seeing an earlier than expected low of 4.14% and the US2Yr seeing a low of 4.348%.

March '25 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Mar '25 Monthly Forecast

Our March '25 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

March'25 EURUSD Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Mar'25 EURUSD Report

The sharp fall in the Dollar Index over the last couple of months especially triggered by tariff announcements by Trump has weighed on most global currencies. Euro has correspondingly rallied much faster and quicker than expected. Will the Dollar Index pause its fall now or continue to decline? ...Read More

March'25 Crude Oil Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Mar'25 Crude Oil Report

Crude is headed towards the lower end of the sideways range. Will the range continue to hold and push the crude prices up with a limited downside in the near term? Or can prices break below the support levels and establish any fresh lows in the coming months? ... Read More

March '25 US Treasury Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Mar '25 US Treasury Report

As per the more preferred path in our last report (03-Feb-25, UST10Yr 4.55%) we were looking for the US10Yr to rise to 5.25% by May-25. This does not seem to be working out just. Rather, the alternative less preferred path, wherein the US10Yr could fall in Feb-25 itself .... Read More

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