Kshitij US Treasury Reports - Kshitij.com
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US Treasury Forecast
US Treasury Report
The Kshitij US Treasury Report covers movement in US Treasury bond yields and analyses its possible impact on Global Markets providing a macro view of the Global Economy.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:
  • Technical Price Charts of US Treasury yield across all tenors.
  • US yield differential and yield curve analysis
  • Correlations of US yields with commodity & currency markets
  • Fundamental economic data and their impact on the overall economy
  • Major updates from the FED impacting interest rates and the economy
Jan'19 US Treasury Report

January ' 19 US Treasury Report

The US yields have fallen in December more or less in line with our expectation. Despite the fall in Crude prices, FED increased rates by 25 bps in the Dec'18 policy meet. In the current report, we analyse the possible rate hikes as indicated by the FED along with possibility of further fall in the US yields in 2019. We consider some improvement in the market sentiment of US economic data going into mid-2019 or later.

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Nov'18 US Treasury Report

November ' 18 US Treasury Report

US yields have dipped in the last 2 weeks after testing multi-year highs. In the Nov '18 report, we examine if long-term resistance levels might hold in the near to medium term for US yields. We also forecast if yield curve steepening will continue in the near term. Also given are implications of possible movements in Crude, US CPI and US Average Hourly Earnings.

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Oct'18 US Treasury Report

October ' 18 US Treasury Report

The US 10 year yield has risen from 2.82% in Aug'18 to a high of 3.25% in Oct'18. Will it rise more in the next couple of months? How are Brent, US CPI, US Average Hourly Wages and US Retail Sales expected to impact yields? Will the yield curve now steepen?

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Jul'18 US Treasury Report

July ' 18 US Treasury Report

Yield curve inversion fears have overtaken global bond markets. A dip below 0 for the 10-2 yield spread has historically been followed by recessions in the US. Will the curve really invert? And if so, could it happen as early as this year?

May'18 US Treasury Report

May ' 18 US Treasury Report

Some dovishness from the Fed, bearishness in Crude prices and political turmoil in Italy have pulled the UST 10 Year yield below 2.9%. How much lower will it go? Can 3.5%-4.0% be expected as early as 2018? Is yield curve inversion likely? In the report, we answer these questions and give our projections for the rest of the year.

Apr'18 US Treasury Report

April ' 18 US Treasury Report

The 30 Year, 10 Year, 5 Year and 2 Year yields could rise towards 3.4%-3.5%, 3.2%-3.3%, 3.15% and 2.75% respectively in the near term by June. After that, we prefer a dip for the 4 yields towards 3.2%, 3%, 2.8% and 2.4% respectively. The dip in longer term yields (30 Year and 10 Year) could be brought about by Crude dipping towards 64 by Sep, while that in the shorter term yields (5 Year and 2 Year) could be due to a steepening yield curve after May-Jun (yield spreads are expected to rise from long term supports).

Mar'18 US Treasury Report

March ' 18 US Treasury Report

The much anticipated rate hike in the 21st March FOMC meeting has potential to move yields up a bit. Our analysis of short term and medium term trend lines makes us believe that a March rate hike should raise yields. However, after Mar-Apr, we see US yields declining in May-Jun. We analyze patterns followed by US yields around Fed rate hikes, their spreads with German and Japanese yields and also the dependence of rate hikes on crucial US economy indicators to arrive at the above conclusion.

Feb'18 US Treasury Report

February ' 18 US Treasury Report

In our Jan ’18 report, we had predicted a rise in US Yields towards respective long term resistances by Mar ’18 after an initial consolidation in Jan-Feb. But, the rise happened faster than anticipated. Will the US yields consolidate below long term resistances instead of breaching them in this month?

Jan'18 US Treasury Report

January ' 18 US Treasury Report

In our Nov’17 & Dec’17 reports, we had been bullish on US yields, expecting shorter term yields to rise slower than longer term yields, thereby putting a halt to yield curve flattening. Although US yields have risen on the whole, the yield curve has only seen further flattening. We now expect a month of consolidation ahead, with further bullishness in future months.