Kshitij US Treasury Reports

US Treasury Forecast

Overview
The Kshitij US Treasury Forecast covers movement in US Treasury bond yields and analyses its possible impact on Global Markets providing a macro view of the Global Economy.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:

Technical Price Charts of US Treasury yield across all tenors.
US yield differential and yield curve analysis
Correlations of US yields with commodity & currency markets
Fundamental economic data and their impact on the overall economy
Major updates from the FED impacting interest rates and the economy

June ' 23 US Treasury Report

In our Apr-23 report (27-Mar-23, US10Yr @ 3.44%) we had said that (A) the FED’s 2% inflation target is an arbitrary number which was possibly based on the benign post-1980 world of economic co-operation and declining inflation and that (B) it would seem difficult for CPI to keep coming down towards the Fed’s targets of 3.3% (2023), 2.5% (2024) and 2.1% (2025).It is good to see our view being echoed by marquee names like Mohamed A. El-Erian and Gita Gopinath, First MD of IMF.

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May ' 23 US Treasury Report

Since our last report (27-Mar-23, US 10Yr @ 3.38%) US Yields have moved up across the Curve despite the FED raising rates by only 25bp instead of the expected 50bp. Can US10Yr dip to 3.0% before rise?

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April ' 23 US Treasury Report

Since our last report (01-Mar-23, US 10Yr @ 3.95%) the collapse of the SVB and other banks in the USA, the collapse of Credit Suisse in Switzerland, and the teetering of Deutsche Bank in Germany, along with the rescue plans for each of them, have dominated the news.

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March ' 23 US Treasury Report

In our last report (30-Jan-23, US 10Yr @ 3.53%), we had said that a recession (which was the talk of the market at that time), might kick-in earliest by Oct-23 and as such, the FED may not cut rates in 2023. We had also said that the US 2Yr could still rise towards 5.25%, while the US 10Yr could still rise towards 4.00%. Since then, the talk of recession has faded away and instead the talk is about the persistence of inflation

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February ' 23 US Treasury Report

Since our last report (27-Dec-22, US 10Yr @ 3.75%) the Core PCE (4.42%, Dec-22) has dipped further. The entire Yield Curve has shifted lower by 14-26 bp since the last report. In particular, the US 10Yr dipped to 3.36% on 19-Jan, almost in line with our expectation of a fall towards 3.25%. The 10-2Yr Spread (-0.69%) has dipped again seeing a of -0.72% in January, in line with our target of -1.0%.

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January ' 23 US Treasury Report

Since our last report (25-Nov-22, US 10Yr @ 3.67%) the US Fed Funds Rate has risen by 50bp in Dec, in line with expectation. The Core PCE (4.68%, Nov-22) has dipped below 5%, mirroring the dip in the Core CPI. The US 10Yr dipped to 3.46% on 08-Dec but has risen well since then, going against our expectation of a fall towards 3%. The 10-2Yr Spread (-0.57%) has surprised by bouncing well from -0.8% (02-Dec) instead of falling further towards our target of -1.0%.

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Dec ' 22 US Treasury Report

Since our last report (US 10Yr @ 4.014% on 28-Oct-22), the FOMC has raised the FFR by 75bp (on 02-Nov), the US Unemployment Rate has increased a bit to 3.7% from 3.5% and Wage growth rate has dipped to 4.73% from 4.98% (on 04-Nov), while the Core CPI has dipped a bit to 6.31% from 6.66% (on 10-Nov). Due to these, the US bond yields have softened a little.

WHAT'S NEW?

May'23 Monthly Forecast

Our May'23 Monthly Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

May '23 EURUSD Report

EURINR has been holding below resistance near 90.60 and finding it difficult to break above 90.60. Will the pair hold and decline eventually giving more weightage to the resistance near 90.60? Or can the sideways movement be considered as a temporary pause post which we may see a sharp break out on the upside? ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

June'23 Crude Oil Report

Brent has been ranged since Dec-22 within $90-70 region. OPEC production cut has been implemented this month and the impact can be assessed in the next OPEC meeting scheduled on 4th June 2023.Possibility of economic slowdown could weigh ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

June'23 US Treasury Report

TESTIMONIALS