Kshitij US Treasury Reports - Kshitij.com

Kshitij US Treasury Reports - Kshitij.com

US Treasury Forecast

US Treasury Report

Overview
The Kshitij US Treasury Forecast covers movement in US Treasury bond yields and analyses its possible impact on Global Markets providing a macro view of the Global Economy.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:

Technical Price Charts of US Treasury yield across all tenors.
US yield differential and yield curve analysis
Correlations of US yields with commodity & currency markets
Fundamental economic data and their impact on the overall economy
Major updates from the FED impacting interest rates and the economy

Feb'26 US Treasury Report

Feb'26 US Treasury Report

In our last report (29-Dec-25, UST10Yr 4.12%) we had said the US2Yr could fall to 3.00%. However, contrary to our expectation, the US2Yr has moved up. The US10Yr has also risen, much earlier than expected. The US data releases are still straggling in, making economic assessments tougher than ever. In the meanwhile, given the continued geopolitical turmoil, central banks continue to decrease their US Treasury holdings in favour of gold and silver.

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Jan'26 US Treasury Report

Jan'26 US Treasury Report

As expected in our last report (09-Dec-25, UST10Yr 4.16%) the US Fed indeed reduced the Fed Rate further by 25bp to 3.75%. We had also said that we expect another 75bp of FED Rate cuts in 2026 on the back of rising Unemployment which has come in at 4.06% for Oct-25. The Core PCE dipped to 3.02% in Sep-25, down a bit from 3.07% in August. Economic data releases continue to be delayed in the aftermath of the federal shutdown from 01-Oct to 12-Nov, clouding projections and decision making. We also expected the US10Yr to rise to 5.25% by Sep-26 and the US10Yr-Fed Rate Spread to rise towards 1%+. So far, the US10Yr-Fed Rate Spread has risen to 0.41%, up from 0.02% in November.

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Dec'25 US Treasury Report

Dec'25 US Treasury Report

Since our last report (29-Oct-25, UST10Yr 3.985%) the US Fed has indeed reduced the Fed Rate by 25bp to 4.0%. Some economic data has started to be released after the federal shutdown ended on 12-Nov. Unemployment (Sep-25) has moved up to 4.4%, the highest since 4.3% in Jul-24. At the same time CPI has also risen to 3.02% for Sep-25, up from 2.33% in Apr-25. Although the Fed Rate has been reduced, Bonds Yields have hardened across the Curve.

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Nov'25 US Treasury Report

Nov'25 US Treasury Report

In our last report (09-Oct-25, UST10Yr 4.11%) we continued to expect the FED to cut rates by 25bp-50bp in its 29-Oct and 10-Dec meetings and for the US10Yr to dip to 3.95% by Dec-25 before rising towards 5.25% by Sep-26. The US Government shutdown since 01-Oct is still ongoing and food stamps/ food aid are likely to be stopped from 01-Nov. Gold ($4013) and Silver ($46.94) have both come down a decent bit from their recent highs of $4398 and $53.77 respectively. WTI Crude ($61.93) had fallen to a low of $55.98 and has inched up a from there.

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Oct'25 US Treasury Report

Oct'25 US Treasury Report

In our last report (03-Sep-25, UST10Yr 4.22%) we expected the FED cut rates by 50bp in the rest of 2025 and the shortend of the Curve to move down with the US2Yr falling towards 3.4-3.0%. At the same time, the US10Yr could be ranged between 4.16-4.70% till Feb-26 and then rise towards 5.15% by Aug-26. As widely expected, the FED cut rates by 25bp to 4.25% keeping room for 1 or 2 more cuts in 2025. The US2Yr did dip a bit, but only to 3.58%, while the US10Yr fell more from 4.22% to a low of 3.99%, leading to a degree of Curve flattening instead of Curve steepening. In the meanwhile, Gold has continued to rise and Japanese Yields have also soared along with the rise in Gold.

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Sep'25 US Treasury Report

Sep'25 US Treasury Report

In our last report (29-Jul-25, UST10Yr 4.42%) we expected the FED to remain on hold and said that since data was inconclusive the US10Yr was likely to be indecisively ranged in August, with a bit of a bullish bias. As it turns out, while the US10Yr has indeed remained largely ranged, it has dipped a bit within the range after Powell hinted at readiness for lower rates at his Jackson Hole speech on 22-Aug.

February '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Feb '26 Monthly Forecast

Our February '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

February'26 EURUSD Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Feb'26 EURUSD Report

Euro unexpectedly reached 1.2083 in Jan-26 on Dollar sell-off but recovered quickly back to lower levels. Will it again attempt to rise targeting 1.24? Or will it remain below 1.20/21 now and see an eventual decline to 1.10/08? ...Read More

January'26 USDJPY Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'26 USDJPY Report

In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More

February'26 GOI Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Feb'26 GOI Report

The 10Yr GOI (6.6472%) had risen to a high of 6.78% on 01-Feb. It has dipped a bit from there but has good Support at ... Read More

February'26 Crude Oil Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Feb'26 Crude Oil Report

Having risen sharply in Jan-26 to $70.58, will Brent again rise past $70 and continue to rise in the coming months? Or is the rise over and the price can move back towards $60? ... Read More

Feb '26 US Treasury Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Feb '26 US Treasury Report

In our last report (29-Dec-25, UST10Yr 4.12%) we had said the US2Yr could fall to 3.00%. However, contrary to our expectation, the US2Yr has moved up. The US10Yr has also risen, much earlier than .... Read More

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