Kshitij US Treasury Reports

US Treasury Forecast

Overview
The Kshitij US Treasury Forecast covers movement in US Treasury bond yields and analyses its possible impact on Global Markets providing a macro view of the Global Economy.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:

Technical Price Charts of US Treasury yield across all tenors.
US yield differential and yield curve analysis
Correlations of US yields with commodity & currency markets
Fundamental economic data and their impact on the overall economy
Major updates from the FED impacting interest rates and the economy

June'26 US Treasury Report

In our last report (29-Apr-26, UST10Yr 4.35%), we had said that the FED was likely to leave rates unchanged, which it did. We had also said that “once Kevin Warsh comes in, the FED is more likely to cut, responding to lower growth, pushing the Near-end lower, while the Far-end rises along with Crude induced inflation”. As per the market, the expectation for FED action has moved from one rate cut to one rate hike in 2026, so our call for a rate cut could be wrong.

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May'26 US Treasury Report

In our last report (28-Mar-26, UST10Yr 4.43%), we had assumed little chances of the USA being able to easily extricate itself from the US-Israel-Iran war, and we said that as long Brent remains above $80, we can look for a sharper rise in the US10Yr towards 5.5–5.6%, without a multi-month sideways consolidation between 4.00-4.60%. Since then, within the ongoing vacillation on the ceasefire and the on-off negotiations, Brent Crude dipped to $86.09 in mid-April but has bounced back well from there.

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Apr'26 US Treasury Report

In our last report (27-Feb-26, UST10Yr 4.01%), which was published just one day before the start of the US-Israel-Iran War on 28-Feb, we had continued to target 4.60% on the US10Yr based on expectations of higher Crude. At that time, we were looking for Brent to rise to a mere $78, a gross underestimate, as it turns out. Wth the war continuing through March, Brent has surged to a high of $119.50 already and the US10Yr has risen to a high of 4.47%.

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Mar'26 US Treasury Report

In our last report (28-Jan-26, UST10Yr 4.23%) we had established the linkage between higher Crude and higher Inflation leading onto higher Yields and had said Yields were likely to move up along with Crude prices. At the same time, given prospects of slowing growth there was room for at 25-50 bp Fed Rate cut in 2026. Surprisingly, despite higher Crude prices, there has been an across the Curve decline in Yields in February, attributed to “flight to safety” from declines in Silver, Gold and Stocks.

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Feb'26 US Treasury Report

In our last report (29-Dec-25, UST10Yr 4.12%) we had said the US2Yr could fall to 3.00%. However, contrary to our expectation, the US2Yr has moved up. The US10Yr has also risen, much earlier than expected. The US data releases are still straggling in, making economic assessments tougher than ever. In the meanwhile, given the continued geopolitical turmoil, central banks continue to decrease their US Treasury holdings in favour of gold and silver.

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Jan'26 US Treasury Report

As expected in our last report (09-Dec-25, UST10Yr 4.16%) the US Fed indeed reduced the Fed Rate further by 25bp to 3.75%. We had also said that we expect another 75bp of FED Rate cuts in 2026 on the back of rising Unemployment which has come in at 4.06% for Oct-25. The Core PCE dipped to 3.02% in Sep-25, down a bit from 3.07% in August. Economic data releases continue to be delayed in the aftermath of the federal shutdown from 01-Oct to 12-Nov, clouding projections and decision making. We also expected the US10Yr to rise to 5.25% by Sep-26 and the US10Yr-Fed Rate Spread to rise towards 1%+. So far, the US10Yr-Fed Rate Spread has risen to 0.41%, up from 0.02% in November.

WHAT'S NEW?

June '26 Monthly Forecast

Our June '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

June'26 EURUSD Report

In our May 2026 report (11-May-26, EURUSD 1.1762), we expected the Euro to rise to 1.1950 by May-26 before falling towards 1.16-1.14 in the coming months. We delayed the fall to 1.10 from the earlier expected Aug-26 to Mar-27 as the Dollar Index remained within a broad range for more than expected... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'26 USDJPY Report

In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

June'26 GOI Report

In our 11-Apr-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.03%) we had retained our bullish view on Brent towards $134 by Sep-26, while allowing for a near term dip to $95 on hopes of a US-Iran resolution. Brent fell to $89.93, lower than... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

June'26 Crude Oil Report

In our May 2026 report (4-May-26, Brent @ $110.75), we expected Brent to test $90.50 by Jul-26, followed by a rise to $145.13 by Sep-26 and $161.93 by Dec-26. Sustained trade below $100 was expected to be seen only on a credible resolution of the US-Iran war, which looked unlikely. ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

June '26 US Treasury Report

TESTIMONIALS