Kshitij US Treasury Reports - Kshitij.com
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US Treasury Forecast
US Treasury Report
Overview
The Kshitij US Treasury Forecast covers movement in US Treasury bond yields and analyses its possible impact on Global Markets providing a macro view of the Global Economy.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:
  • Technical Price Charts of US Treasury yield across all tenors.
  • US yield differential and yield curve analysis
  • Correlations of US yields with commodity & currency markets
  • Fundamental economic data and their impact on the overall economy
  • Major updates from the FED impacting interest rates and the economy
February'23 US Treasury Report

February ' 23 US Treasury Report

Since our last report (27-Dec-22, US 10Yr @ 3.75%) the Core PCE (4.42%, Dec-22) has dipped further. The entire Yield Curve has shifted lower by 14-26 bp since the last report. In particular, the US 10Yr dipped to 3.36% on 19-Jan, almost in line with our expectation of a fall towards 3.25%. The 10-2Yr Spread (-0.69%) has dipped again seeing a of -0.72% in January, in line with our target of -1.0%.

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January'23 US Treasury Report

January ' 23 US Treasury Report

Since our last report (25-Nov-22, US 10Yr @ 3.67%) the US Fed Funds Rate has risen by 50bp in Dec, in line with expectation. The Core PCE (4.68%, Nov-22) has dipped below 5%, mirroring the dip in the Core CPI. The US 10Yr dipped to 3.46% on 08-Dec but has risen well since then, going against our expectation of a fall towards 3%. The 10-2Yr Spread (-0.57%) has surprised by bouncing well from -0.8% (02-Dec) instead of falling further towards our target of -1.0%.

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December'22 US Treasury Report

December ' 22 US Treasury Report

Since our last report (US 10Yr @ 4.014% on 28-Oct-22), the FOMC has raised the FFR by 75bp (on 02-Nov), the US Unemployment Rate has increased a bit to 3.7% from 3.5% and Wage growth rate has dipped to 4.73% from 4.98% (on 04-Nov), while the Core CPI has dipped a bit to 6.31% from 6.66% (on 10-Nov). Due to these, the US bond yields have softened a little.

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November'22 US Treasury Report

November ' 22 US Treasury Report

In our last report (US 10Yr @ 3.548% on 21-Sep-22) we had said that a 4% end-2022 Fed Rate was fully priced in by the market. However, the 2022 FFR projection by the FOMC itself was put out at 4.4%. Thus, the US yields continued to rise after the 75bp hike in the 21-Sep FOMC, well past our cited resistance at 3.80% to a closing-high of 4.23% on 21-Oct, from where it has dropped a little now.

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September/October'22 US Treasury Report

September/October ' 22 US Treasury Report

Since our last report, Powell’s hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting on 27-Aug has sent yields up sharply, especially the US 2Yr which has risen well past 3.50%. The market now fully expects a 75bp hike in the FFR in today’s FOMC meeting, with a decent part of the market looking for 100bp.

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August'22 US Treasury Report

August ' 22 US Treasury Report

To be fair, Jerome Powell possibly has one of the toughest tenures as the Fed Chairman. While Powell may have erred in believing inflation to be “transitory”, the War pushed inflation beyond expectation. This after battling Covid in 2020 and then trying to sustain recovery through 2021.

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July'22 US Treasury Report

July ' 22 US Treasury Report

The US inflation continues to rise and the Fed is likely to remain aggressive on the rate hikes although a recession in the US is not far away. Under this backdrop, the US Treasury yields have declined sharply in the last one month. Has it made a top or is this a corrective fall within the broader uptrend. We analyse the scenario

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