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January ' 25 US Treasury Report

Yields have risen across the Curve in line with the anticipations in our Dec-24 report (30-Nov-24, UST10Y 4.18%).Both the US5Yr and US10Yr have risen well as expected. Even the US2Yr has risen, but the rise is a little muted so far. As a result, contrary to expectation, the Curve has steepened more with the US10-2Yr Spread rising instead of dipping. The FOMC delivered one more rate cut, contrary to our expectation of a pause, but has reduced its anticipation of rate cuts for 2025 (50bp instead of 100bp) and has raised its forecasts for GDP (2.1% for 2025 up from 2.0%) and Core PCE (2.5% for 2025 up from 2.02%), and lowered the Unemployment forecast for 2025 from 4.4% to 4.3%.

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April '25 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Apr '25 Quarterly Forecast

Our April '25 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

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Apr'25 EURUSD Report

Admist Global trade tariff announcements, market volatility ECB rate cut expectations and economic growth concerns will the Euro manage to hold below the immediate resistance near 1.12? Or will the global scenario force the Euro to surge beyond 1.12? ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

May'25 Crude Oil Report

The Brent crude prices have declined well in line with the Dollar over the last few months on global trade tariffs. Will they continue to decline some more over the next few months, or can they start to reverse higher? ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

May '25 US Treasury Report

In our last report (04-Apr-25, UST10Yr 3.89%) we had said that the US10Yr could fall to 3.90-80% within April-May and then be ranged between 3.90-4.40% for a few months before falling further towards 3.4% by Nov-25. As expected, the US 10Yr rose from 3.86% to as high as 4.59%, surpassing the projected range high of 4.4%, as there was .... Read More

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