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January ' 25 US Treasury Report

Yields have risen across the Curve in line with the anticipations in our Dec-24 report (30-Nov-24, UST10Y 4.18%).Both the US5Yr and US10Yr have risen well as expected. Even the US2Yr has risen, but the rise is a little muted so far. As a result, contrary to expectation, the Curve has steepened more with the US10-2Yr Spread rising instead of dipping. The FOMC delivered one more rate cut, contrary to our expectation of a pause, but has reduced its anticipation of rate cuts for 2025 (50bp instead of 100bp) and has raised its forecasts for GDP (2.1% for 2025 up from 2.0%) and Core PCE (2.5% for 2025 up from 2.02%), and lowered the Unemployment forecast for 2025 from 4.4% to 4.3%.

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January '25 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast

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Jan '25 Quarterly Forecast

Our January '25 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

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Jan'25 EURUSD Report

In our Dec-24 edition (12-Dec-24, EURUSD @ 1.0505), we expected the Euro to limit its downside to 1.0333 and bounce back towards 1.0650-1.08 by Feb-25 followed by an eventual rise to 1.09-1.11 by mid of 2025. But contrary to our expectations, Euro broke below 1.0333 and sustained lower towards 1.01. ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'25 Crude Oil Report

With the US economic data strong and stable, the earlier expected US slowdown has not played out, resulting in the crude price trading higher while above $70 (Brent). While there is uncertainty in the long-term direction for crude, as long as it stays within the range of $67-80 (Brent), we have kept our earlier forecasts intact this month. Supply from the OPEC countries is also likely to remain tight for the next couple of months. Additionally, a rising Dollar could keep the crude at the higher end of its sideways range for now. ... Read More

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Jan '25 US Treasury Report

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