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January ' 25 US Treasury Report

Yields have risen across the Curve in line with the anticipations in our Dec-24 report (30-Nov-24, UST10Y 4.18%).Both the US5Yr and US10Yr have risen well as expected. Even the US2Yr has risen, but the rise is a little muted so far. As a result, contrary to expectation, the Curve has steepened more with the US10-2Yr Spread rising instead of dipping. The FOMC delivered one more rate cut, contrary to our expectation of a pause, but has reduced its anticipation of rate cuts for 2025 (50bp instead of 100bp) and has raised its forecasts for GDP (2.1% for 2025 up from 2.0%) and Core PCE (2.5% for 2025 up from 2.02%), and lowered the Unemployment forecast for 2025 from 4.4% to 4.3%.

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