Kshitij Euro-Dollar Forecast

Euro-Dollar Forecast

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Overview
The Kshitij Euro Report takes a deep look at Technical and Fundamental Factors driving the EURUSD currency pair, and provides a macro view for the next 6 to 12 months. We combine 30 years of currency forecasting experience with 4 forecasting techniques and a consistent research process to arrive at forecasts every month.

Each report contains hard number forecasts for the next 6-12 months, which is very useful for costing and hedging purposes.

We also track these specific numeric forecasts against the actual to understand our performance. Our Forecasts of Dollar-Rupee have achieved 60% reliability (directional + numerical accuracy) in the past 20+ years.

Kshitij.com’s EURUSD forecast has been ranked no.2 for quarter ended June 2026 and no. 6 for quarter ended March 2026 worldwide by Bloomberg. Earlier it has been ranked #5 in June 2023.

July ' 26 Euro Report

In our June 2026 report (10-Jun-26, EURUSD 1.1546), we expected the Euro to rise towards 1.17 in Jun-26 before reversing lower, with surging crude prices, rising inflation, and potential central bank rate hikes posing key risks amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. The ECB raised rates by 25bps in June 2026, in line with market expectations, to counter rising inflationary pressures from higher energy prices. The Euro tested 1.1665, in line with our forecast, before reversing sharply lower to 1.1325 in Jun-26.

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June ' 26 Euro Report

In our May 2026 report (11-May-26, EURUSD 1.1762), we expected the Euro to rise to 1.1950 by May-26 before falling towards 1.16-1.14 in the coming months. We delayed the fall to 1.10 from the earlier expected Aug-26 to Mar-27 as the Dollar Index remained within a broad range for more than expected. The ECB had kept key rates unchanged in its April 2026 meeting, but was expected to move closer to a rate hike in its June 2026 meeting in response to a rise in inflation driven by energy prices.

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May ' 26 Euro Report

In our April 2026 report (13-Apr-26, EURUSD 1.1686), we expected the Euro to rise to 1.1950 by May-26 while retaining our long-term bearishness towards 1.10 by Aug’26. The main reasons were good chances of a rise in the Dollar Index and crude prices. The markets expect the ECB to move closer to a rate hike by June-26, given a possible rise in inflation driven by energy prices. On the US FED, the markets expect one rate cut this year and another in 2027

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Apr ' 26 Euro Report

The major rally in crude prices over the last 1-month and continued elevated prices through the year could lay major impact on the currencies. With the Dollar Index and Crude prices being elevated there could be little room for Euro on the upside. However, it would be interesting to see if any resolution is arrived at between US and Iran this year itself which could lead to some stability in prices.

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Mar ' 26 Euro Report

Our view of a fall towards 1.14 seems to be playing out well so far as the tensions in the Middle East and the US-Iran conflict have triggered a rise in Dollar Index and crude oil prices, thereby weakening to Euro to 1.1507 so far in Mar-26. Will it again attempt to rise targeting 1.20? Or will it remain below 1.19/20 now and see an eventual decline to 1.10?

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Feb ' 26 Euro Report

Euro unexpectedly reached 1.2083 in Jan-26 on Dollar sell-off but recovered quickly back to lower levels. Will it again attempt to rise targeting 1.24? Or will it remain below 1.20/21 now and see an eventual decline to 1.10/08?

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Jan ' 26 Euro Report

Brent and EU Inflation has been low in the last few months. If both the EU Inflation and Brent see a gradual rise in 2026, the upside could be limited for the Euro. At the same time, we need to keep a close watch on the Dollar Index whether it bounces higher and eventually moves up or continues to stabilize and decline through 2026.

July '26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

July '26 Quarterly Forecast

Our July '26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

July'26 EURUSD Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'26 USDJPY Report

In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

June'26 GOI Report

In our 11-Apr-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.03%) we had retained our bullish view on Brent towards $134 by Sep-26, while allowing for a near term dip to $95 on hopes of a US-Iran resolution. Brent fell to $89.93, lower than... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

July'26 Crude Oil Report

In our June 2026 report (1-Jun-26, Brent @ $95.47), we had expected Brent to correct to $88 before bouncing back to $120 and $145 by Aug-26 and Sep-26, respectively. A sustained trade below $90 was said to be incumbent on a fully credible resolution of the US-Iran war. ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

July '26 US Treasury Report

For the last few months we have been looking for Crude to rise towards $130-190 and pull up the US CPI towards 4.6% and the US10Yr Yield to 5.4% by Jan-27. This view has clearly gone wrong with Brent falling sharply below $90 as a result of the US-Iran peace deal, which is the .... Read More

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