Euro-Dollar Forecast

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Overview
The Kshitij Euro Report takes a deep look at Technical and Fundamental Factors driving the EURUSD currency pair, and provides a macro view for the next 6 to 12 months. We combine 30 years of currency forecasting experience with 4 forecasting techniques and a consistent research process to arrive at forecasts every month.

Each report contains hard number forecasts for the next 6-12 months, which is very useful for costing and hedging purposes.

We also track these specific numeric forecasts against the actual to understand our performance. Our Forecasts of Dollar-Rupee have achieved 60% reliability (directional + numerical accuracy) in the past 20+ years.

Kshitij.com’s EURUSD forecast has been ranked no.3 for quarter ended September 2026, no.2 for quarter ended June 2026 and no. 6 for quarter ended March 2026 worldwide by Bloomberg. Earlier it has been ranked #5 in June 2023.

Oct ' 26 Euro Report

In our September 2026 report (4-Sep-26, EURUSD 1.1620), we revised our Euro forecast upwards due to lack of followthrough selling below 1.14. We expected the Euro to range between 1.1980-1.13 for the next 1yr. However, in line with our earlier bearish outlook, the Euro fell sharply to test a low of 1.1161 so far in Oct-26, mainly triggered by a rise in energy prices, US Dollar and Bond Yields. This proved our Sep-26 upward revised forecast to be wrong.

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Sep ' 26 Euro Report

In our August 2026 report (10-Aug-26, EURUSD 1.1556), we expected the Euro to test 1.1630 by Sep-26 before falling towards 1.0985 by Jun-27. The main factors were support on the Dollar Index, rise in crude prices EU inflation, EU-US CPI differential. However, we indicated a few factors that indicated caution against a falling Euro like the bottoming out of the Net long short position and the support on the German-Italy yield spread. Euro broke above 1.1630 and tested 1.1712 in Aug-26 before falling off from there.

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Aug ' 26 Euro Report

In our July 2026 report (10-Jul-26, EURUSD 1.1442), we expected the Euro to rise from support at 1.13 to 1.16 by Aug-26 before resuming its broader downtrend towards 1.12 by Oct-26 and 1.0950 by Jun-27. In line with this, the Euro tested 1.1547 in July-26 and 1.1581 in Aug-26, the recent rise triggered by weakness in the Dollar Index and Yen strength on joint intervention by the BOJ and the US.

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July ' 26 Euro Report

In our June 2026 report (10-Jun-26, EURUSD 1.1546), we expected the Euro to rise towards 1.17 in Jun-26 before reversing lower, with surging crude prices, rising inflation, and potential central bank rate hikes posing key risks amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. The ECB raised rates by 25bps in June 2026, in line with market expectations, to counter rising inflationary pressures from higher energy prices. The Euro tested 1.1665, in line with our forecast, before reversing sharply lower to 1.1325 in Jun-26.

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For subscribers elsewhere

June ' 26 Euro Report

In our May 2026 report (11-May-26, EURUSD 1.1762), we expected the Euro to rise to 1.1950 by May-26 before falling towards 1.16-1.14 in the coming months. We delayed the fall to 1.10 from the earlier expected Aug-26 to Mar-27 as the Dollar Index remained within a broad range for more than expected. The ECB had kept key rates unchanged in its April 2026 meeting, but was expected to move closer to a rate hike in its June 2026 meeting in response to a rise in inflation driven by energy prices.

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '26 Monthly Forecast

Our November '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

Oct'26 EURUSD Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'26 USDJPY Report

In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov'26 GOI Report

In our 06-Oct-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.19%%), we examined the possibility of the RBI not raising the Repo rate, even though 91% of the market expected it to raise. We were barking up the wrong tree as the RBI did indeed raise the Repo on 07-Oct. Thankfully, our forecasted rise in Brent to $115-120 did materialize well with Brent touching a high of $118 on 30-Oct. We also forecasted that .... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov'26 Crude Oil Report

In our October 2026 report (5-Oct-26, Brent @ $101.71), we had stated Brent would be structurally bullish for the long term based on the technical analysis, within which a test of $115 was expected in Oct-26, followed by a test of $134 by Dec-26 and eventually targeting $145 in 2027. In line with our expectation, Brent did test $117.45, slightly higher than our expected $115 in Oct-26. ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '26 US Treasury Report

Our last report (03-Oct-26, UST10Y 5.28%) warned of increased chances of Brent rising towards $135-145, US Core PCE rising towards 4.5-5.0% and the US10Yr rising towards 5.80% (Dec-26) and 6.00% (Aug-27). While Brent has risen to nearly $117 and the Core PCE (Aug-27) has inched up to 3.01%, we find that US Yields have fallen across .... Read More

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