Kshitij Euro-Dollar Forecast - Kshitij.com
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Euro-Dollar Forecast
EURUSD Forecast ranked #5 by Bloomberg
Overview
The Kshitij Euro Report takes a deep look at Technical and Fundamental Factors driving the EURUSD currency pair, and provides a macro view for the next 6 to 12 months. We combine 26 years of currency forecasting experience with 4 forecasting techniques and a consistent research process to arrive at forecasts every month.

Each report contains hard number forecasts for the next 6-12 months, which is very useful for costing and hedging purposes.

We also track these specific numeric forecasts against the actual to understand our performance. Our Forecasts of Dollar-Rupee have achieved 75% reliability (directional + numerical accuracy) in the past 17+ years.

Kshitij.com’s EURUSD forecast has been ranked no. 5 worldwide by Bloomberg for quarter ended June 2023.
March '24 Euro Report

March ' 24 Euro Report

Euro has moved up from 1.0695 to 1.10 during the current Jan-Mar'24 quarter. With crucial resistance at 1.10, will Euro manage to rise past 1.10 and move higher? Or will it fall back into the 1.0695-1.10 range? We have laid out a few important factors and given our preferences with detailed analysis in the Mar-24 report.

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February '24 Euro Report

February ' 24 Euro Report

Dovish comments from FED in its Dec-23 meeting has triggered a rise in the Euro and fall in US Dollar as the FED has hinted at 3-rate cuts in 2024. It would be important to see if the Euro continues to rise from current levels or falls back to trade within the earlier range.

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December '23 Euro Report

December ' 23 Euro Report

Dovish comments from FED in its Dec-23 meeting has triggered a rise in the Euro and fall in US Dollar as the FED has hinted at 3-rate cuts in 2024. It would be important to see if the Euro continues to rise from current levels or falls back to trade within the earlier range.

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November '23 Euro Report

November ' 23 Euro Report

Euro inflation has been falling over the past few months but the ECB now looks at a possible pause in the falling inflation to stabilize or show some uptick over the next few months. Real yields have moved up sharply but has not shown major impact on the currency.

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October '23 Euro Report

October ' 23 Euro Report

Euro has broken above our expected supports at 1.08 and 1.06 over the last few months and has now held above 1.04. Will Euro reverse from 1.04 and move up in the coming months back towards 1.08/10? Or is there scope for a fall below 1.04?

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September '23 Euro Report

September ' 23 Euro Report

News from the ECB on hinting at possible pause in rate hikes earlier in July and then in September along with a higher US NFP data in early Sep-23 has aided Euro to fall and remain below 1.08 contrary to our expectation of holding above 1.08. In the current report we analyse factors that correlate well with Euro to take some cues for further movement from here.

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August '23 Euro Report

August ' 23 Euro Report

Euro fell sharply after the ECB hinted at a possible pause in its interest rate cycle in its next meeting in Sep-23 which was unexpected and unaccounted for given the high EU inflation rates. But will the fall stop in Euro at 1.08? Or will it continue to fall further into a medium term bear market?

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July '23 Euro Report

July ' 23 Euro Report

Euro has been trading within 1.05-1.11 since Jan-23. The rise from 1.0634 to 1.1012 in June-23 did not sustain and the Euro fell back to 1.0834 in early July-23. Now, a series of supports are seen near 1.0830, 1.07 and 1.06 respectively

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June '23 Euro Report

June ' 23 Euro Report

Negative GDP for Eurozone for first quarter of 2023 has taken it to a recession technically. Inflation is expected to remain stable in the coming months while both the ECB and the FED remain hawkish on their media statements. Within this can Euro bounce back to levels above 1.08 and move up? Or could it continue to trade below 1.08?

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May '23 Euro Report

May ' 23 Euro Report

EURINR has been holding below resistance near 90.60 and finding it difficult to break above 90.60. Will the pair hold and decline eventually giving more weightage to the resistance near 90.60? Or can the sideways movement be considered as a temporary pause post which we may see a sharp break out on the upside? For detailed report refer to the May23 edition of our monthly report.

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April '23 Euro Report

April ' 23 Euro Report

Euro has managed to rise over the last 1-month from levels near 1.05. Net Long/Short position in the market is still high and the long positions are likely to move up. With inflation data coming out lower for Mar-23, it would be important to see the forward guidance from the ECB in its next policy meeting on 4th May 2023. For detailed analysis on Euro, check out our latest April-23 report

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March '23 Euro Report

March ' 23 Euro Report

After falling from 1.1033 in Feb-23, Euro has tested 1.0516 so far in Mar-23. Could Euro be ranged below 1.10 for some more time? Can it break below 1.05? Find detailed analysis on the next course of movement for Euro projected in the Mar-23 report

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February '23 Euro Report

February ' 23 Euro Report

Euro faced rejection from 1.1033 and has fallen sharply this month. We keep our last month projections intact for the coming months but near-term volatility could be intact. The ECB have raised rates by 50bps in Feb-23 and expect to raise by another 50bps in its Mar-23 policy meeting. Important factors impacting the Euro are analysed in detail in the Feb-23 report with numerical forecasts for the next 12-months.

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January '23 Euro Report

January ' 23 Euro Report

The Chinese Yuan has appreciated strongly against the US Dollar over the last couple of months and if it continues, can aid strength in Euro. Important would be to see how long the US Dollar remains weak. Other important things to look at would be action from the central banks especially the ECB and the FED and the falling pace of inflation in the coming months. View our detailed analysis in the Jan-23 report.

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December '22 Euro Report

December ' 22 Euro Report

Euro has been rising sharply over the last 2-months and has broken above interim resistance at 1.06. View remains bullish for the coming months. Amplitude over the last 12-months indicate Euro strength which could be aided by Dollar weakness.



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