A 12-month forecast is more reliable than a one-month forecast - Kshitij.com
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A 12-month forecast is more reliable than a one-month forecast


Kshitij USDINR Forecasts Jan-24

We provide hard-number forecasts for each month from 1 month to 12 months.

It enables comparison between each forecast with the relevant forward rate for that month (as seen in the chart alongside), helping arrive at informed hedging decisions for each month.

Hedging Decision Framework

For Exports:
If Forward > Forecast, then Sell Forward
If Forward < Forecast, then Stay Open
For Imports:
If Forward > Forecast, then Stay Open
If Forward < Forecast, then Buy Forward


Dollar-Rupee Forecasts Month-wise Right/Wrong Ratio

While the 1-mth forecast has a reliability of 51.3%, the 12-mth forecast has a reliability of of 55.9%. The highest reliability is 62.9%, for the 4-mth forecast.

This gives us the confidence to hedge based on the insights derived from these forecasts.

The results are better than hedging without forecasts, as shared in the previous page.
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