Kshitij GOI Forecast - Kshitij.com

Kshitij GOI Forecast - Kshitij.com

GOI Forecast

GOI Report

Overview
The Kshitij 10Yr Indian GoI Report provides a comprehensive monthly view of yield movements, supported by key macroeconomic and market factors, to project the broader trend in the months ahead. As a core benchmark reflecting interest rate expectations, inflation trajectory, and market sentiment, the 10-year yield offers insight into the evolving landscape of the Indian economy.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:

Technical charts of the 10Yr Indian Government Bond yield
Interaction between key commodity prices and inflation trends
Domestic and global yield spread analysis
Broader macroeconomic indicators impacting yields

GOI October'25 Report

October ' 25 GOI Report

In our 10-Sep-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.48%) we expected the RBI to be on pause in its next MPC meeting on 01-Oct. This is to be seen tomorrow. We had also said there was room for the FOMC to cut rates by 25-50bp, and accordingly they did cut by 25bp on 17-Sep. We projected the 10Yr GOI to dip to 6.25% by December 2025 and then rise towards 6.59% by February 2026.

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GOI September'25 Report

September ' 25 GOI Report

In our 06-Aug-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.33%) we reiterated that Crude might have bottomed and could rise towards $82 in the long term, limiting the downside for inflation and yields; and that the 10Yr GOI would remain ranged between 6.45-6.20% till Dec-25 and then rise towards 6.6% by Feb-26. We also said that the Yield could steepen in the near term as we were looking for a rate cut from the RBI.

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GOI August'25 Report

August ' 25 GOI Report

In our 10-Jul-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.38%) we said that Crude might have bottomed and could rise towards $82 (in the long term), limiting the downside for inflation, and hence both US and Indian Yields could rise in the long term. Within that there could be scope for Curve-steepening as the short-end of the Curve could fall in the near term, before rising in the longer term.

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GOI July'25 Report

July ' 25 GOI Report

In our 05-Jun-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.25%) we said that the 10Yr GOI downside is limited to 6.0% from where it can rise towards 6.5%. In line with that, although the 10Yr GOI dipped to a low of 6.1334% as an immediate reaction to the 50bp Repo Rate cut on 06-June, it has bounced back well. The US Fed retained the FFR at 4.5% at the FOMC meeting on 18-Jun, citing inflation concerns. Brent rose to a high of $79.40 on 23-June at the height of the Israel-Iran conflict and then fell back to $65.92 as the ceasefire came into effect, from where it has risen back to $70.00.

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GOI June'25 Report

June ' 25 GOI Report

As expected in our 13-May-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.33%) the 10Yr GOI has indeed dipped further in the last few weeks to a low of 6.227%, in line with its target of 6.20-6.00% in the near term.

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GOI May'25 Report

May ' 25 GOI Report

As expected in our 08-Apr-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.49%) the RBI did cut the Repo by 25bp in its 09-Apr meeting and the 10Yr GOI has fallen from 6.49% to a low of 6.30% instead of rising towards 6.60%. This is contrary to the sharp rise in US10Yr after the imposition of tariffs by the USA led to an exodus from US Bonds and the US Dollar. Surprisingly, despite the fall in Brent to a low of $58.20, the FOMC has refused to lower rates citing increased risk of stagflation in the USA. In our last report we had also said that the RBI it may be on a wait and watch mode in its 06-June meeting. Let us see now.

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GOI Apr'25 Report

Apr ' 25 GOI Report

In our 17-Mar-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.69%) we said that the RBI could cut the Repo by 25bp in its 09-Apr meeting (tomorrow) but given the chances that the CPI could rise again further rate cuts after Apr-25 would be uncertain. As such we said we expect a gradual rise in the 10Yr GOI from 6.60% towards 6.80%-7.0%. However, the 10Yr GOI has already broken well below 6.60%. Trump has unleashed his reciprocal tariffs on the world and at the same time OPEC has announced production increases. Both together have contributed to Brent breaking well below $68.

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For subscribers in India
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For subscribers elsewhere

GOI Mar'25 Report

Mar ' 25 GOI Report

In our 07-Feb-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.66%) we said that although we did not expect the RBI to lower the Repo, but if it did indeed lower the Repo Rate by 25bps from 6.5% to 6.25%, the 10Yr GOI would fall towards 6.4%. As it turns out, the RBI did indeed deliver a 25bps rate cut but despite that the GOI 10Yr remained above 6.65%. US 10Yr yield (currently 4.34%, previously 4.43%) fell to a low of 4.1080% before rising to the current level.

September '25 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Sep '25 Monthly Forecast

Our September '25 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

September'25 EURUSD Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Sep'25 EURUSD Report

In our August 2025 outlook (dated 11-Aug-2025, EURUSD at 1.1623), we projected the Euro to strengthen towards 1.19–1.20 over the following months, before retreating to 1.14 by December 2025 and further easing to ...Read More

Oct'25 USDJPY Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Oct'25 USDJPY Report

In our 12-Sep-25 report (USDJPY 147.96), we expected the USDJPY to limit the downside to 144 and ascend towards 155-158 in the coming months. In line with our view, USDJPY limited the downside to ... Read More

October'25 GOI Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Oct'25 GOI Report

In our 10-Sep-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.48%) we expected the RBI to be on pause in its next MPC meeting on 01-Oct. This is to be seen tomorrow. We had also said there was room for the FOMC to cut rates by 25-50bp, and accordingly they ... Read More

October'25 Crude Oil Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Oct'25 Crude Oil Report

The WTI Net Long/short position has remained below 2 for about 2-months now, the longest time since 2006. The market sentiment continues to be bearish on crude prices for the near term. ... Read More

Sep '25 US Treasury Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Sep '25 US Treasury Report

In our last report (29-Jul-25, UST10Yr 4.42%) we expected the FED to remain on hold and said that since data was inconclusive the US10Yr was likely to be indecisively ranged in August, with a bit of .... Read More

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