Kshitij GOI Forecast - Kshitij.com

GOI Forecast

GOI Report

Overview
The Kshitij 10Yr Indian GoI Report provides a comprehensive monthly view of yield movements, supported by key macroeconomic and market factors, to project the broader trend in the months ahead. As a core benchmark reflecting interest rate expectations, inflation trajectory, and market sentiment, the 10-year yield offers insight into the evolving landscape of the Indian economy.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:

Technical charts of the 10Yr Indian Government Bond yield
Interaction between key commodity prices and inflation trends
Domestic and global yield spread analysis
Broader macroeconomic indicators impacting yields

GOI November'26 Report

Nov ' 26 GOI Report

In our 06-Oct-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.19%%), we examined the possibility of the RBI not raising the Repo rate, even though 91% of the market expected it to raise. We were barking up the wrong tree as the RBI did indeed raise the Repo on 07-Oct. Thankfully, our forecasted rise in Brent to $115-120 did materialize well with Brent touching a high of $118 on 30-Oct. We also forecasted that the 10Yr GOI would rise to a high of 7.43% by Dec-26, then fall to a low of 7.05% by Feb-27. The expected movement did indeed take place, but much earlier than we had thought.

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GOI October'26 Report

Oct ' 26 GOI Report

In our 10-Sep-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.98%), we had noted that the Long end of the Curve, viz. the 10Yr GOI was rising due to a number of factors. We said, “Whether the RBI will raise rates on 07-Oct will depend on whether Crude happens to be breaking higher or would have cooled off from $105 to $95”. That situation remains more or less the same. Crude rose to $110, dipped below $96 but again rose to $104 from there. The US10Yr has soared past the Oct-23 high of 5.02% to a high of 5.35% so far. The US FED has raised rates by 25bp to 4.00% and the Aug-26 India CPI has come in at a high of 4.82%.

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GOI September'26 Report

Sep ' 26 GOI Report

In our 05-Aug-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.82%), we projected a 6.63-6.95% range for a few months before a rise towards 7.10% by Jul-27, assuming Brent stayed within $75-95 before rising to $115. Brent is already up to $105, pushing the 10Yr GOI close to 7.00%, while the US10Yr trades above 4.80%. Globally, inflation concerns are pushing yields higher and pressuring central banks to raise rates.

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GOI August'26 Report

Aug ' 26 GOI Report

Our last report on 13-Jul-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.74%) stood on a foundation of uncertainty regarding what happens in the Strait of Hormuz. We assumed that Crude would remains below $90, and hence we projected lower inflation (below 4.5%) and therefore lower Yields. As it turns out, Brent rose past $90 to $102 on 23-July and has fallen back below $90 again. In the meanwhile, the Jun-26 Bharat CPI has risen to 4.38% and the 10Yr GOI has also risen nearly 10bp. Over in the USA, the US10Yr has risen further even though the FED has left rates unchanged in a 9-3 split vote.

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GOI July'26 Report

July ' 26 GOI Report

In our last report on 03-Jun-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.03%) we remained bullish on Brent and therefore called for higher CPI and higher Yields. At the same time, we said, “Our view will come under threat if Brent trades below $85 for at least two weeks.” As it happens, the USA and Iran smoked the peace pipe (at least for a while) and Crude fell to a low of $70.14 and the 10Yr GOI came down to a low of 6.68%. The RBI Governor has said it is premature to talk about a rate hike.

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GOI June'26 Report

June ' 26 GOI Report

In our 11-Apr-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.03%) we had retained our bullish view on Brent towards $134 by Sep-26, while allowing for a near term dip to $95 on hopes of a US-Iran resolution. Brent fell to $89.93, lower than our expected dip of $95, but has bounced back above that. The April CPI rose to 3.48%, a tad lower than our expectation of 3.66%. Our long term 10Yr GOI target of 7.45% allowed for a near term consolidation between 6.85-7.10%. The traded range for the 10Yr GOI in May was 6.90-7.14%, more or less in line with our expectations. All eyes are on ongoing negotiations between USA-Israel-Iran

Nov '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '26 Monthly Forecast

Our November '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

Oct'26 EURUSD Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Oct'26 EURUSD Report

In our September 2026 report (4-Sep-26, EURUSD 1.1620), we revised our Euro forecast upwards due to lack of followthrough selling below 1.14. We expected the Euro to range between 1.1980-1.13 for the next 1yr. However, in line with our earlier bearish outlook, the Euro fell sharply to ... Read More

January'26 USDJPY Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'26 USDJPY Report

In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More

November'26 GOI Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov'26 GOI Report

In our 06-Oct-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.19%%), we examined the possibility of the RBI not raising the Repo rate, even though 91% of the market expected it to raise. We were barking up the wrong tree as the RBI did indeed raise the Repo on 07-Oct. Thankfully, our forecasted rise in Brent to $115-120 did materialize well with Brent touching a high of $118 on 30-Oct. We also forecasted that .... Read More

Nov'26 Crude Oil Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov'26 Crude Oil Report

In our October 2026 report (5-Oct-26, Brent @ $101.71), we had stated Brent would be structurally bullish for the long term based on the technical analysis, within which a test of $115 was expected in Oct-26, followed by a test of $134 by Dec-26 and eventually targeting $145 in 2027. In line with our expectation, Brent did test $117.45, slightly higher than our expected $115 in Oct-26. ... Read More

November '26 US Treasury Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '26 US Treasury Report

Our last report (03-Oct-26, UST10Y 5.28%) warned of increased chances of Brent rising towards $135-145, US Core PCE rising towards 4.5-5.0% and the US10Yr rising towards 5.80% (Dec-26) and 6.00% (Aug-27). While Brent has risen to nearly $117 and the Core PCE (Aug-27) has inched up to 3.01%, we find that US Yields have fallen across .... Read More

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