Kshitij GOI Forecast

GOI Forecast

Overview
The Kshitij 10Yr Indian GoI Report provides a comprehensive monthly view of yield movements, supported by key macroeconomic and market factors, to project the broader trend in the months ahead. As a core benchmark reflecting interest rate expectations, inflation trajectory, and market sentiment, the 10-year yield offers insight into the evolving landscape of the Indian economy.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:

Technical charts of the 10Yr Indian Government Bond yield
Interaction between key commodity prices and inflation trends
Domestic and global yield spread analysis
Broader macroeconomic indicators impacting yields

June ' 26 GOI Report

In our 11-Apr-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.03%) we had retained our bullish view on Brent towards $134 by Sep-26, while allowing for a near term dip to $95 on hopes of a US-Iran resolution. Brent fell to $89.93, lower than our expected dip of $95, but has bounced back above that. The April CPI rose to 3.48%, a tad lower than our expectation of 3.66%. Our long term 10Yr GOI target of 7.45% allowed for a near term consolidation between 6.85-7.10%. The traded range for the 10Yr GOI in May was 6.90-7.14%, more or less in line with our expectations. All eyes are on ongoing negotiations between USA-Israel-Iran

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May ' 26 GOI Report

In our 07-Apr-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.05%) we had assigned a 65-70% probability to Crude rising towards $145 by Sep-26 and had said that this could cause the CPI to move up to 6.2% by Nov-26 and the 10Yr GOI to target 7.37% by Feb-27. Since then, Brent has seen two short-lived dips below $100 but has bounced back both times as there has been predictable back and forth and dilly dallying in the US-Iran negotiations.

@ Rs. 8770/- * | @ $130
For subscribers in India
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For subscribers elsewhere

April ' 26 GOI Report

In our 09-Mar-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.69%) we had warned that the sharp rise in crude due to the US-Iran conflict could push Brent toward $134, which would lift CPI toward ~6.2%, eliminating any chance of RBI easing, and potentially force tightening. As it turns out, the war has entered its 6th week, Brent has risen to a high of $119.50 already, the US10Yr has risen to a high of 4.476% and the 10Yr GOI has soared to a high of 7.14%, as even a ceasefire is unsure, leave alone cessation and resolution of the war.

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For subscribers in India
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For subscribers elsewhere

March ' 26 GOI Report

In our 05-Feb-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.65%) we had reasoned that the RBI would not cut rates (they did not) as there were chances of a rise in CPI in the coming months. We concluded that the 10Yr GOI has room to rise to 6.9-7.0%. Since then, the 1-mth TBill (5.01%) fell to a low of 4.47% but has risen back from there.

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February ' 26 GOI Report

In our 09-Jan-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.63%) we had wondered if actual CPI would undershoot projections; and had said that the RBI might cut rates further. We expected the Yield Curve to steepen and 10Yr GOI to have limited upside. The Dec-25 CPI rose to 1.33%. How the CPI pans out from here will need to be seen. In the meanwhile the Yield Curve has indeed steepened with the 10Yr GOI – 1Mth TBill Spread rising to 1.9%.

@ Rs. 7999/- * | @ $115
For subscribers in India
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For subscribers elsewhere

January ' 26 GOI Report

In our 04-Dec-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.54%) we conceded that RBI may cut the Repo due to the unexpectedly sharp fall in the Oct-25 CPI to 0.25%. The RBI then indeed did cut the Repo to 5.25%. After that the FOMC cut the Fed Rate to 3.75% on 10-Dec while the BOJ hiked its interest rate to 0.75% on 19-Dec. The RBI conducted OMOs and USDINR Buy/ Sell Swaps to infuse liquidity into the system.

July '26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

July '26 Quarterly Forecast

Our July '26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

July'26 EURUSD Report

In our June 2026 report (10-Jun-26, EURUSD 1.1546), we expected the Euro to rise towards 1.17 in Jun-26 before reversing lower, with surging crude prices, rising inflation, and potential central bank rate hikes posing key risks amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict.... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'26 USDJPY Report

In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

June'26 GOI Report

WHAT'S NEW?

July'26 Crude Oil Report

In our June 2026 report (1-Jun-26, Brent @ $95.47), we had expected Brent to correct to $88 before bouncing back to $120 and $145 by Aug-26 and Sep-26, respectively. A sustained trade below $90 was said to be incumbent on a fully credible resolution of the US-Iran war. ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

July '26 US Treasury Report

For the last few months we have been looking for Crude to rise towards $130-190 and pull up the US CPI towards 4.6% and the US10Yr Yield to 5.4% by Jan-27. This view has clearly gone wrong with Brent falling sharply below $90 as a result of the US-Iran peace deal, which is the .... Read More

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