Kshitij GOI Forecast - Kshitij.com
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GOI Forecast
GOI Report
Overview
The Kshitij 10Yr Indian GoI Report provides a comprehensive monthly view of yield movements, supported by key macroeconomic and market factors, to project the broader trend in the months ahead. As a core benchmark reflecting interest rate expectations, inflation trajectory, and market sentiment, the 10-year yield offers insight into the evolving landscape of the Indian economy.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:
  • Technical charts of the 10Yr Indian Government Bond yield
  • Interaction between key commodity prices and inflation trends
  • Domestic and global yield spread analysis
  • Broader macroeconomic indicators impacting yields
GOI July'25 Report

July ' 25 GOI Report

In our 05-Jun-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.25%) we said that the 10Yr GOI downside is limited to 6.0% from where it can rise towards 6.5%. In line with that, although the 10Yr GOI dipped to a low of 6.1334% as an immediate reaction to the 50bp Repo Rate cut on 06-June, it has bounced back well. The US Fed retained the FFR at 4.5% at the FOMC meeting on 18-Jun, citing inflation concerns. Brent rose to a high of $79.40 on 23-June at the height of the Israel-Iran conflict and then fell back to $65.92 as the ceasefire came into effect, from where it has risen back to $70.00.

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GOI June'25 Report

June ' 25 GOI Report

As expected in our 13-May-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.33%) the 10Yr GOI has indeed dipped further in the last few weeks to a low of 6.227%, in line with its target of 6.20-6.00% in the near term.

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GOI May'25 Report

May ' 25 GOI Report

As expected in our 08-Apr-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.49%) the RBI did cut the Repo by 25bp in its 09-Apr meeting and the 10Yr GOI has fallen from 6.49% to a low of 6.30% instead of rising towards 6.60%. This is contrary to the sharp rise in US10Yr after the imposition of tariffs by the USA led to an exodus from US Bonds and the US Dollar. Surprisingly, despite the fall in Brent to a low of $58.20, the FOMC has refused to lower rates citing increased risk of stagflation in the USA. In our last report we had also said that the RBI it may be on a wait and watch mode in its 06-June meeting. Let us see now.

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GOI Apr'25 Report

Apr ' 25 GOI Report

In our 17-Mar-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.69%) we said that the RBI could cut the Repo by 25bp in its 09-Apr meeting (tomorrow) but given the chances that the CPI could rise again further rate cuts after Apr-25 would be uncertain. As such we said we expect a gradual rise in the 10Yr GOI from 6.60% towards 6.80%-7.0%. However, the 10Yr GOI has already broken well below 6.60%. Trump has unleashed his reciprocal tariffs on the world and at the same time OPEC has announced production increases. Both together have contributed to Brent breaking well below $68.

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GOI Mar'25 Report

Mar ' 25 GOI Report

In our 07-Feb-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.66%) we said that although we did not expect the RBI to lower the Repo, but if it did indeed lower the Repo Rate by 25bps from 6.5% to 6.25%, the 10Yr GOI would fall towards 6.4%. As it turns out, the RBI did indeed deliver a 25bps rate cut but despite that the GOI 10Yr remained above 6.65%. US 10Yr yield (currently 4.34%, previously 4.43%) fell to a low of 4.1080% before rising to the current level.

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GOI Feb'25 Report

Feb ' 25 GOI Report

In our 13-Jan-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.66%) we said that there is Support at 6.65% on the 10Yr GOI and while that holds there can be a slow rise towards 6.91% by April. That forecast is being put to the test as Crude has come off again, the RBI has introduced several measures to boost liquidity and US Yields themselves have come down, even though the FED has refrained from cutting rates. The ECB and BOE have cut rates by 25bp each and the Market expects the RBI to also cut rates at the first MPC meeting of the new RBI Governor Mr Sanjay Malhotra.

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GOI Jan'25 Report

Jan ' 25 GOI Report

In line with our 05-Dec-24 report (10Yr GOI 6.7281%), the RBI kept rates steady in December. The Nov-24 CPI came down to 5.48% from 6.21% in Oct-24 and the government has lowered its FY25 GDP estimate to 6.4%. As such, the RBI continues to face pressure to cut rates in its 07-Feb-25 meeting. On the other hand, US Yields are rising strongly, the Dec-24 Services PMI for Bharat has risen well to 59.3, up from 57.79 in Oct-24. The 10Yr GOI has managed to stay above 6.65% so far, in line with expectations. Whether it will rise towards 7.05% by October is to be seen.



July '25 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast
WHAT'S NEW?
July '25 Quarterly Forecast
Our July '25 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
July'25 EURUSD Report
WHAT'S NEW?
July'25 EURUSD Report
The Dollar Index has high chances of rebounding from support at 96, in which case, it could limit the immediate upside for Euro and lead to a decline in the coming months ...Read More
July'25 USDJPY Report
WHAT'S NEW?
July'25 USDJPY Report
In our 07-Jun-25 report (USDJPY 144.90), we expected the pair to extend the fall to 138-136 initially before ascending towards 150 in the longer run. Contrary to expectation, the pair ... Read More
July'25 GOI Report
WHAT'S NEW?
July'25 GOI Report
In our 05-Jun-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.25%) we said that the 10Yr GOI downside is limited to 6.0% from where it can rise towards 6.5%. In line with that, although the 10Yr GOI dipped ... Read More
August'25 Crude Oil Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Aug'25 Crude Oil Report
Our August 2025 Crude Oil Monthly Report covers updates on OPEC+ production, inventory changes and cross-commodity correlations. Our analysis includes both technical setups and broader market indicators shaping the near-term outlook for Brent. ... Read More
Aug '25 US Treasury Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Aug '25 US Treasury Report
In our last report (28-Jun-25, UST10Yr 4.28%) we had highlighted the stagflation dilemma faced by the US FED (which still remains); had said that the Inflation Expectation could rise (it did indeed rise); that Inflation is .... Read More
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