In our 10-Sep-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.48%) we expected the RBI to be on pause in its next MPC meeting on 01-Oct. This is to be seen tomorrow. We had also said there was room for the FOMC to cut rates by 25-50bp, and accordingly they did cut by 25bp on 17-Sep. We projected the 10Yr GOI to dip to 6.25% by December 2025 and then rise towards 6.59% by February 2026. Instead so far, the 10Yr GOI has been in a mild uptrend in September with a low of 6.44% on 09-Sep and a high of 6.63% on 01-Sep and then 6.58% on 30-Sep. The 50% tariffs by USA continue, the GST rates have been reduced and the India CPI has risen to 2.07% in August up from 1.61% in July.
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WHAT'S NEW?
Mar '26 Monthly Forecast
Our March '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
WHAT'S NEW?
Mar'26 EURUSD Report
Our view of a fall towards 1.14 seems to be playing out well so far as the tensions in the Middle East and the US-Iran conflict have triggered a rise in Dollar Index and crude oil prices, thereby weakening to Euro to 1.1507 so far in Mar-26. Will it again attempt to rise targeting 1.20? Or will it remain below 1.19/20 now and see an eventual decline to 1.10? ...Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 USDJPY Report
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Mar'26 GOI Report
The Real 10Yr Yield at 0.90% plus CPI at 6.2% implies that the nominal 10Yr GOI rate can ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Mar'26 Crude Oil Report
The Net Long short position for WTI has started to move up. Currently above 2, will it rise sharply towards 4-6 and higher or fall back towards 1.5 or lower? The US-Iran conflict has lead to a sharp rally in crude prices. Will it dominate prices in the coming months? ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Mar '26 US Treasury Report
In our last report (28-Jan-26, UST10Yr 4.23%) we had established the linkage between higher Crude and higher Inflation leading onto higher Yields and had said Yields were likely to move up along with .... Read More