The Dollar Index has again fallen lower but can be ranged within 101.50-98 region for the near term. The Euro on the other hand can move up within 1.14-1.1750 region and fall later. Yen may depreciate towards 160/161 followed by a dip back towards 158/157 while EURJPY can remain within the 183-186 region. EURINR may rise to 110 in the next few sessions before pausing for a dip. Aussie and Pound can remain ranged for now within 0.72-0.68 and 1.3250-1.35/36 respectively. USDCNY is holding above crucial level of 6.80 and has scope to rise towards 6.85 or higher soon. USDINR may have room for a fall to 92 but if the ceasefire between Iran and US does not last and gets breached, USDINR can start rising sharply in the coming days to 93 and higher.

Dollar Index (98.877) has immediate resistance near 99.75 and support near 98.50. A narrow range of 98.50-99.75 and broader range of 98-101.50 can hold for the medium term.

EURUSD (1.1690) is holding above near term support at 1.14 but whether it would test 1.1750 or higher is uncertain at the moment.

EURINR (108.0985) has risen above our expected level of 108 and could be headed towards resistance at 110 in the near term.

EURJPY (185.99) seems to be slowly gaining upside momentum. It is headed towards 186 as expected and a break above this level of seen can be further bullish towards 188.

Dollar-Yen (159.63) has resistance at 160.50-160 below which the first preference is to see a fall towards 157.

USDCNY (6.8298) is trading near very crucial levels if seen on a medium term chart. 6.80 is a crucial level which needs to hold well and produce a bounce back towards 6.85-6.90. Else the pair could be vulnerable to break the long term support and end up declining further in the coming weeks.

Aussie (0.7078) and Pound (1.3430) have moved up. We may expect the currencies to remain ranged within the broad 0.68-0.72 and 1.32-1.35/36 region for the next few sessions.

USDINR (92.6625) closed lower yesterday. Although there is scope for a dip to 92.25/92, if the Iran-US war escalate again, the Rupee may start to depreciate towards 93+ levels again.

The US Treasury Yields seem to be struggling to sustain the bounce. That still keeps the downside open to test their support. Broadly, we expect the support to hold and the yields to rise eventually. The CPI data release will need a watch today. The German Yields have risen back again. They are oscillating in a range now. Bias is positive to see a bullish breakout and a fresh rise eventually. The 10Yr GoI has bounced. But a strong rise above the immediate resistance is needed to go higher and avoid falling back again.

The US 10Yr (4.29%) and 30Yr (4.89%) Treasury yields seem to be struggling to sustain the bounce. That still keeps the downside open to see 4.25%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.75% (30Yr) again. Thereafter a rise can take them up to.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.05%-5.1% (30Yr) over the medium term.

The German 10Yr (2.98%) and 30Yr (3.52%) yields have risen back again. Support at 2.9%-2.85% (10Yr) and 3.4%-3.35% (30Yr) can limit the downside if there is a dip again. The broader bias is positive to see 3.2% (10Yr) and 3.65% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.9601%) has bounced. A strong follow-through rise above 7% is needed from here to go back up to 7.1% and higher. Else, the yield can fall back to 6.85%-6.8%.

Dow is holding above 48000 and can rise towards 48500-49000. DAX may extend gains towards 25000-25200 despite the recent dip. Nifty remains weak below 24000 and can decline towards 23600-23400, whereas Nikkei continues to hold a positive outlook towards 57000-57500. Shanghai has moved above 4000 and can rise further towards 4025-4050 if it sustains above 3950.

Dow (48360, -0.12%) is trading above 48000 and can move higher towards 48500-49000 in the coming weeks.

DAX (24080, -0.50%) has dipped, but the outlook remains biased towards a rise to our earlier mentioned levels of 25000-25200 in the near term.

Nifty (23,775.10, -0.93%) tested a low of 23682 before closing. While it remains below 24000, a further decline towards 23600-23400 can be expected in the coming weeks.

Nikkei (56815, +0.21%) dipped slightly yesterday, but the view remains intact for a rise towards 57000-57500 in the near term.

Shanghai (4008.53, +1.08%) has risen above 4000 and needs to sustain above 3950 to move higher towards 4025-4050 in the coming sessions.

Crude prices remain under pressure and need to stay below $100 to extend the decline. Brent can fall towards $90-$85 or even $80, while WTI may decline towards $90-$85 in the near term. Precious metals remain firm with Gold likely to rise towards $4900-$5000 and Silver towards $80-$85. Copper continues to strengthen and can move towards $5.80-$6.00. Natural Gas has broken below $2.70 and may decline further towards $2.65-$2.60 in the coming sessions.

Brent ($96.46) is holding below $100 and needs to sustain below this level to see a further decline towards $90-$85 or even $80 in the coming weeks if the US-Iran truce holds.

WTI ($98.64) is hovering below $100 and can decline further towards $90-$85 in the near term.

Gold ($4777.40) remains likely to move towards $4900-$5000 in the near term.

Silver ($75.47) can rise towards $80-$85 in the near term.

Copper ($5.7765) is moving up in line with our expectations and can rise towards $5.80-$6.00 in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($2.6790) has fallen below $2.70 and can extend the decline towards $2.65-$2.60 in the coming sessions.

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN CPI
...Market 1.2 ...Previous 1.3

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN PPI
...Market 0.5 ...Previous -0.9

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US CPI
...Kshitij 0.8 ...Market 1.0 ...Previous 0.3

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core CPI
...Kshitij 0.1 ...Market 0.3 ...Previous 0.2

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 CA Labour Force
...Market 12.60 ...Previous -83.9



DATA YESTERDAY
===============
GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Personal Income
...Kshitij 0.4 ...Market 0.3 ...Previous 0.4

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PCE Price Index
...Kshitij 0.4 ...Market 0.5 ...Previous 0.4

{GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core PCE
...Kshitij 0.4 ...Market 0.5 ...Previous 0.4