GOOD MORNING!
FOREX
The Dollar Index has recovered today after a sharp fall yesterday. Euro has dipped back below 1.17 after trading higher. The Yen may deppreciate towards 160/161 followed by a dip back towards 158/157 while EURJPY can remain within the 183-186 region. EURINR may trade within 108-106 zone while Aussie and Pound too can remain ranged for now within 0.72-0.68 and 1.3250-1.35/36 respectively. USDCNY is holding above 6.80 and has scope to rise towards 6.85 soon. USDINR may have room for a fall to 92 this week before eventually bouncing back towards 93 or higher by the end of this month.
Dollar Index (99.076) has risen from levels seen yesterday. It is to be seen if the index can sustain above 99 and rise back towards 100 again or fall back towards 98/97. Near term view is uncertain at the moment.
EURUSD (1.1660) tested 1.1721 yesterday before slightly coming off from there. We may expect 1.1750 to limit the immediate upside. A break past 1.1750 to the upside could turn bullish again for the currency towards 1.18 or higher.
EURINR (107.8699) may continue to trade within 107-108 region for the near term.
EURJPY (185.21) has broken above 185 and may have scope for a rise to 186 or higher in the coming days. Immediate downside is likely to be limited to 183.
Dollar-Yen (158.83) tested 157.884 yesterday as expected and has bounced back today. It is likely to hold below resistance at 160/161 with immediate support at 157.
USDCNY (6.8327) is slightly up today. While above 6.80, we may expect the currency pair to move up towards 6.85.
Aussie (0.7034) and Pound (1.3394) have both dipped on recovery seen in the Dollar Index. However, a range of 0.72-0.68 and 1.35/36-1.3250 respectively may hold for the near term.
USDINR (92.5850) closed lower yesterday. There is a fair chance that the Rupee may appreciate towards 92 this week before eventually bouncing back towards 93 or higher by end of Apr-26.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury Yields have risen back sharply. The supports are holding well in line with our expectation. That keeps the broader bullish view intact. More rise is on the cards. The US PCE data release will need a watch today. The German Yields have declined sharply failing to sustain the bounce seen on Tuesday. That keeps the door open to test the support first before resuming the broader uptrend. The 10Yr GoI has declined sharply and well beyond its key support. Failure to rise back from here can drag it further lower. The RBI kept their policy rates unchanged at 5.25%.
The US 10Yr (4.30%) and 30Yr (4.89%) Treasury yields have risen back very well. The support at 4.25%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.75% (30Yr) is holding well. That keeps our broader bullish view intact to see 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.05%-5.1% (30Yr) on the upside over the medium term.
The German 10Yr (2.94%) and 30Yr (3.46%) yields have declined sharply failing to sustain the bounce. This keeps alive the chances of seeing 2.9%-2.85% (10Yr) and 3.4%-3.35% (30Yr) first. Thereafter a fresh rise can take them up to 3.2% (10Yr) and 3.65% (30Yr).
The 10Yr GoI (6.8984%) has come down sharply below 6.95%. Failure to rise back above 6.95% can take it down to 6.85%-6.8%. We will have to wait and see.
STOCKS
Global equities remain positive. Dow is holding above 48000 and can rise towards 48500-49000, while DAX may continue higher towards 25000-25200. Nifty is struggling near 24000 and needs a sustained break to move towards 24200-24400. Nikkei has seen some pullback but can still rise towards 57000-57500. Shanghai needs a break above 4000 to extend gains towards 4025-4050.
Dow (48077, -0.14%) has risen above 48000 in line with our expectations and can move higher towards 48500-49000 in the coming weeks.
DAX (24080, -0.50%) can rise towards our earlier mentioned levels of 25000-25200 in the near term.
Nifty (23,997.35, +3.78%) struggled to sustain above 24000 and closed slightly below it. A sustained break above 24000 could take the index towards 24200-24400 in the near term.
Nikkei (56165, -1.61%) is falling but the view remains intact for a rise towards 57000-57500 in the near term.
Shanghai (3,973.02, -0.55%) rose to 3994 in line with our expectations but has failed to break past 4000. A sustained break above this level is needed to move higher towards 4025-4050 in the near term.
COMMODITIES
Crude prices remain weak as easing tensions continue to weigh on the market. Brent can decline towards $90-$85 or even $80, while WTI may fall towards $90-$85 in the near term. Precious metals are showing resilience with Gold likely to rise towards $4900-$5000 and Silver towards $80-$85. Copper remains positive and can move towards $5.80-$6.00. Natural Gas continues to weaken and may decline further towards $2.70 in the coming sessions.
Brent ($96.88) remains weak and can decline further towards $90-$85 or even $80 in the coming weeks if the US-Iran truce holds.
WTI ($97.64) remains below $100 and can decline further towards $90-$85 in the near term.
Gold ($4766.60) tested a high of $4888.80 yesterday but closed lower. The view remains intact for a further rise towards $4900-$5000 in the near term.
Silver ($74.02) has dipped back but remains likely to move higher towards $80-$85 in the near term.
Copper ($5.7205) remains likely to rise towards $5.80-$6.00 in the coming sessions.
Natural Gas ($2.7270) has fallen in line with our expectations and can decline further towards $2.70 in the coming sessions.
DATA TODAY
GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Personal Income
...Kshitij 0.4 ...Market 0.3 ...Previous 0.4
GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PCE Price Index
...Kshitij 0.4 ...Market 0.5 ...Previous 0.4
GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core PCE
...Kshitij 0.4 ...Market 0.5 ...Previous 0.4
DATA YESTERDAY
===============
GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
...Market 5.25 ...Previous 5.25 ...Actual 5.25
GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
...Previous 3.35 ...Actual 3.35
GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI MSF
...Previous 5.50 ...Actual 5.5
GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Retail Sales
...Market -0.2 ...Previous -0.1 ...Actual -0.2
DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
WARNING !!
Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto.
