Kshitij Consultancy Services
Morning Briefing
Daily forecasts on global Stocks, Commodity, Forex and Interest Rates markets
09 Feb 23. 0903 IST or 0333 GMT or 2233 EST

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GOOD MORNING!
FOREX

Dollar Index could trade within 103-104 while Euro can trade above 1.07 for a few sessions. EURJPY and USDJPY looks bullish for a rise to 142-142.50 and 132-133 respectively while Pound and Aussie look stable to bullish within the 1.20-1.22 and 0.6850-0.70 range. USDCNY remains below 6.80 while USDRUB can continue the range of 67/68-72/73. USDINR is holding well below resistance at 82.75 and has scope to fall to 82.25-82.00 in the next few sessions.

Dollar Index (103.375) trades in a narrow range below 104 and could remain within 104-103 for a while before attempting to rise higher while EURUSD (1.0727) also looks stable above 1.07 just now and may remain so for a few sessions.

EURJPY (141.04) holds above 140 and can rise to 142-142.50 in the near term while Dollar-Yen (131.46) too is attempting to rise while above 131.

Pound (1.2078) is trying to inch up slowly towards 1.22 while above 1.20. Immediate view can be bullish over the next few days.

Aussie (0.6948) can rise within the range of 0.6850-0.70. Thereafter, we need to see if the Aussie breaks higher or not.

USDCNY (6.7903) is stuck within a narrow range and may continue so unless a sharp movement comes in.

USDRUB (72.0450) has dipped but while above 70, it could attempt to test 72.40-73.00. Narrow range of 72-68 and broad range of 67-73 can hold for the near term.

USDINR (82.4975) is holding well below resistance at 82.75 and could have fair chance of declining to 82.25-82.00 in the near term.

EURINR (88.6254) could face rejection from 89.00 and fall towards 88 in the near term. Watch price action near 89-89.20.

INTEREST RATES

The US Treasury yields hovers below their key levels which have to be broken to see an extended rise and avoid a fall back. The German yields remain bullish and have room to rise further. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can move up towards the upper end of their respective range. The RBI increased the repo rates by 25-bps to 6.5% yesterday.

The US 10Yr (3.63%), 30Yr (3.69%) yields have dipped slightly. 3.7% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) are crucial levels that has to be broken to see further rise and avoid a fall back to 3.4% (10Yr) and 3.5% (30Yr) again.

The German 10Yr (2.36%) and 30Yr (2.32%) yields continue to rise towards 2.4%-2.5% as expected.

The 10Yr (7.3435%) looks likely to rise within the 7.28%-7.4% range. That will reduce the chances of the fall to 7.2%-7.15% mentioned yesterday. Need to wait and watch.

The 5Yr GOI (7.2354%) on the other hand can move up towards the upper end of the 7.05/7.10%-7.25/7.3% range.

STOCKS

Dow continues to oscillates within the 33500-34300 range. DAX has risen back well and has scope to test the resistance at 15600-15700. Nikkei fall is likely to get stall at 27420-27400. Shanghai has rebounded sharply as the support at 3225 has held well. Nifty is bullish for a test of 18000.

Dow (33949.01, -0.61%) oscillates within the 33500-34300 range. We retain our bullish bias to see a break above 34300 and a rise to 35000 going forward.

DAX (15412-05, +0.60%) remains bullish to see 16000 on the upside. Intermediate resistance is at 15600-15700.

Nikkei (27478.89, -0.46%) has declined further but it may get a bounce from here as support is seen near 27420-27400.

Shanghai (3254.94, +0.74%) has risen back well as the support at 3225 has held well. It can rise further towards 3300 while above 3225.

Nifty (17871.70, +0.85%) has risen above 17800. Need to see if this break can sustain and get a follow-through rise towards 18000 – the upper end of the 17400-18000 range.

COMMODITIES

Brent and WTI have risen well above the resistance at $84.50 and $77.50 respectively and can rise further from here. Gold, Copper and Silver are likely to hold below the resistance at 1910, 4.15 and 23.00 respectively.

Brent ($84.97) has broken above $84.50 and can now move up to test immediate resistance at $87.

WTI ($78.37) has risen above $77.50. A further rise to $80-81 is possible from here.

Gold ($1891.40) is holding higher within the close range of 1900-1880. Resistance is at 1905-1910. While below which, there is scope for a fall to 1850.

Copper (4.0615) tested a high of 4.12 and has fallen back from there. It is likely to be range bound within 4.15-4.00 for a while with a bearish view of seeing a break below 4.0 and fall to 3.9.

Silver (22.41) continues to hold well above the support at 22. It may trade within 22-23 for some time.

DATA TODAY

No major data release today.

DATA YESTERDAY:-
----------------
4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
...Kshitij Expn - ...Expected 6.50% ...Previous 6.25% ...Actual 6.50%

4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
...Kshitij Expn - ...Expected - ...Previous 3.35% ...Actual 3.35%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
...Kshitij Expn - ...Expected - ...Previous 6.50% ...Actual 6.75%

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

WARNING !!
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