GOOD MORNING!
FOREX
The Dollar Index fell to 98.246 before recovering from there. While above 98, the DXY can attempt to rise back towards 99 and above. EURUSD moved above 1.17 but faces immediate resistance at 1.1770-1.1800 which can cap the upside for now. EURINR can test 107 soon. Thereafter, whether it extends the rise further or declines will have to be seen. EURJPY & USDJPY can head towards 186/187 & 160-162 levels respectively. USDCNY can fall towards 6.95-6.90 levels. Aussie & Pound can trade within 0.6650-0.6750 & 1.33-1.355 range respectively for now. USDINR rose to 91.0450 before easing. While below 91.25, the pair can decline towards 90.75–90.50 in the near term.
Dollar Index (98.496) slipped sharply below 99 to 98.246 amid a broad US market sell-off triggered by the Greenland issue. Support is seen near 98, above which a bounce towards 99 and higher is possible. A break below 98–97 is unlikely for now, though the 100.00-100.50 targets can get delayed.
EURUSD (1.1726) rose sharply to a high of 1.1769 contrary to our expectation of it holding below 1.17. Immediate resistance is coming between 1.1770-1.1800 region which can hold and push the pair towards 1.17 and lower levels in the medium term.
Similarly, EURINR (105.8764) also surged well due to Euro. Our target of 107 can get tested soon. Thereafter, it remains to be seen whether the rise extends toward 108 or a pullback toward 105 follows. Watch price action closely around 107.
EURJPY (185.20) is rising as expected and can test our targets of 186-187 levels in the near term.
Dollar-Yen (157.96) has immediate support just below current levels and while it holds, the targets of 160-162 are kept open.
USDCNY (6.9642) can fall towards 6.95 or even 6.90 in the coming weeks while the resistance at 6.97 holds.
Aussie (0.6713) continues to move within the 0.6650-0.6750 range
Pound (1.3424) has immediate resistance between 1.350-1.355 levels and while it holds, a range of 1.330-1.350/355 can hold for some time.
USDINR (91.0280) attempted to move above 91 but failed to sustain, turning lower from 91.0450. Immediate resistance is seen near 91.25, which if holds, could push the pair back towards 90.75-90.50 over the next week. Only a break above 91.25 would open the way for a rise towards 91.50.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury yields have risen sharply and are heading up towards their next resistance level much faster than expected. The ongoing trade tensions between the US and Europe is pushing the yields higher. The price action around the resistance will need a watch to see if the yields are reversing lower or extending the rise. The German Yields have come up and are hovering around their resistance. A strong rise from here can take them further higher and will negate our view of seeing a fall. The 10Yr GoI sustains higher. There is some room to rise from here before a reversal happens.
The US 10Yr (4.28%) and 30Yr (4.92%) Treasury yields have risen sharply and are heading up towards 4.3%-4.35% and 4.95% respectively. The price action thereafter will need a close watch to see if the yields are reversing lower or extending the rise.
The German 10Yr (2.86%) and 30Yr (3.48%) yields are hovering around their key resistance levels of 2.85% and 3.5% respectively. A strong break above these resistances will be bullish to see 2.9%-2.95% (10Yr) and 3.6% (30Yr). It will also negate the fall to 2.75%-2.7% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr) that we have been expecting.
The 10Yr GoI (6.6722%) is holding higher. Immediate support is at 6.65% while above which the rise to 6.7%-6.75% will remain alive. After this rise, the yields can reverse lower.
STOCKS
Most indices are looking weak on political issues in Japan and tariff hike threats by Trump in Europe, insisting on his intentions to take control of Greenland. The Dow has declined and could test 48000-47500 while the DAX has plunged over the last 2-sessions, re-entering the 25000-23000 zone seen in the second half of 2025. Nifty broke below 25500 but could take support either from 25000 or lower from 24000 in the medium term. Nikkei looks bearish towards 52000. Only Shanghai trades in the green, above 4100 now. It can remain stable within 4050-4200 for the very near term.
The Dow(48488.59, -1.76%) declined sharply breaking below 49000 as expected. With tariff threats and Trump reaffirming his intentions on taking control over Greenland, Dow is likely to decline further in the near term to 48000-47500 as concerns of trade war between US and Europe loom.
DAX (24703.12, -1.03%) has been opening with gap downs over the last 2-sessions. Having broken below 25000, the index has returned back into the 23000-25000 zone that prevailed between July-Dec'25. We cannot negate scope for a fall to 24000-23000 in the coming sessions. The overall view is bearish below 25000.
Nifty (25232.50, -1.38%) plunged yesterday breaking below the immediate support at 25500. There are decent supports near 25000 and lower at 24000 which now comes into the picture for the coming days. While the US-Europe trade concerns exist, Nifty could trade weak.
Nikkei (52810.69, -0.34%) has also dipped on concerns of new tax mandate to remove food tax which could impact Government spending. On the index, supports are seen near 52000 and lower at 51000 from where a rebound can be expected in the medium term.
Shanghai (4123.94, +0.25%) is trading above 4100. However, we remain cautious while below 4200. A break below 4050, if seen, can drag the index down to 3900.
COMMODITIES
Crude prices have strengthened. Brent likely to move higher towards $66–$68 and WTI targeting $61–$62 on tighter global supplies. Gold has surged on a weaker dollar and geopolitical concerns and can extend its rise towards $4,900–$5,000 in the near term. Silver continues to trade with a bullish bias and is likely to move up towards $96–$98. Copper is holding above $5.8 and can bounce towards $6.0–$6.2 unless it breaks below $5.8 and slips to $5.6–$5.4. Natural gas remains strong after its sharp rally and can rise further towards $4.2–$4.4 in the coming sessions.
Brent ($64.14) bounced back to a high of $65.15 yesterday as reduced global crude supplies supported prices after Kazakhstan’s largest oil producer shut production following fires at the Tengiz and Korolev oil fields. A further rise towards $66–$68 remains likely.
WTI ($59.72) bounced back to a high of $60.51, in line with our expectations. A further rise towards $61–$62 can be seen in the near term.
Gold ($4,822.40) has moved up sharply as the dollar weakens. President Trump threatened steep tariffs on French champagne after French President Macron ruled out joining a US-led peace initiative. There are also fears that rising tensions in Greenland could prompt European investors to dump dollar assets. A further rise towards $4,900–$5,000 can be seen in the near term.
Silver ($94.32) remains bullish, with a move towards $96–$98 likely in the near term.
Copper ($5.8240) is holding above $5.8. A sustained break below this level is needed for a fall towards $5.6–$5.4; otherwise, it can bounce back towards $6.0–$6.2.
Natural Gas ($3.8490) surged to a high of $3.99 yesterday. The latest weather outlook signals sustained heating demand and possible production losses in Texas due to freezing temperatures. An Arctic blast is expected to push into Texas over the weekend, dropping temperatures below freezing and potentially leading to freeze-offs that halt natural gas production. A further rise towards $4.2–$4.4 can take place in the coming sessions.
DATA TODAY
GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
...Expectations 3.3 …Previous 3.3
DATA YESTERDAY
================
GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK Unemp
...Expectations 5.0 …Previous 5.1 ...Actual 5.1
DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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