Kshitij Consultancy Services
Morning Briefing
Daily forecasts on global Stocks, Commodity, Forex and Interest Rates markets
05 Jun 23. 0900 IST or 0330 GMT or 2330 EST

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Higher US NFP on Friday has lead to a rally in the Dollar Index as it bounces from 103.40/38 to 104.1350 currently. Euro is breaking below 1.07 while EURJPY and USDJPY are headed towards 151 and 141 while above 149 and 139 respectively. Pound and Aussie look weak on Dollar strength and can head towards 1.24/1.2350 and 0.6550 respectively. USDRUB looks bearish below 80 while EURINR can fall to 87.50-87 if a break below 88 is seen in the near term. USDINR can rise in the near term targeting 82.50/60. Aiding a rise in USDINR could be rising USDCNY which can move up to 7.12/15 soon while above 7.08/09.

Dollar Index (104.1350) has started to rally post the NFP data release that saw an increase from 294k (Apr23) to 339k (May23) taking support from 103.40/38 levels. A re-test of 104.50 looks likely in the near term but it has to be seen if the index can break higher and head towards 105 or faces decline to fall back towards 103.

EURUSD (1.0699) has just dipped back below 1.07 and if the fall sustains, we may have to allow for a fall to 1.0650-1.06 soon.

EURJPY (149.91) has scope to rise to 151 while above 149.

Dollar-Yen (140.107) has risen and is headed towards 141 while above 139.

USDCNY (7.1034) has risen back to levels above 7.08/09 and while it has scope for a rise to 7.12/15, it could bring in weakness for Euro, USDINR and other EM currencies as well.

Pound (1.2431) and Aussie (0.6604) have fallen sharply from 1.2550 and 0.6640 respectively and could continue to decline for the next few sessions targeting 1.24-1.2350 and 0.6550. The move has been contrary to our expected rise that we had expected on Friday. Some positive movement can only come in on fresh Dollar weakness which looks less likely for the near term.

USDRUB (80.7750) is holding below 82 and could have scope to fall towards 79/78.

USDINR (82.31) did fell sharply last week but could see some upmove today on Dollar strength, rising back towards 82.50/60.

EURINR (88.2749) is ranged within 88-89 but could be vulnerable to see a fall to 87.50-87.00.


The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply after the jobs report data on Friday. The US NFP increased by 339K as against the market expectation for an increase of 189K. A further rise in the yields from here can take them higher and reduce the danger of a deeper fall expected last week. The German yields have also risen well. But they can still fall back to test their supports first before witnessing a fresh rise. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain bearish and can fall more.

The US 10Yr (3.71%) and the 30Yr (3.90%) have risen back sharply again. A further rise from here can take the yields up to 3.8%-3.9% (10Yr) and 4%-4.1% (30Yr) again. That will avoid the danger of the fall to 3.4% (10Yr) and 3.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.31%) and the 30Yr (2.48%) have bounced back. But still a fall to 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.4% (30Yr) is possible first before a fresh leg or rise begins.

The 10Yr GoI (6.9823%) remains stable but lower while the 5Yr GOI (6.8867%) has dipper further. The overall bearish view is intact to see 6.9%-6.85% (10Yr) and 6.85% or 6.75%-6.7% (5Yr) on the downside.


Dow Jones and Nikkei have risen sharply and looks further bullish from here. DAX continues to move up as expected. Nifty can rise above 18600 today. Shanghai has managed to hold higher and might target further higher levels in the near term.

Dow (33762.76, +2.12%) has surged above 33300 and has tested 33800 much faster than expected. The outlook is bullish now to see 34,300-34,500.

DAX (16051.23, +1.25%) is heading up towards 16200-16300 in line with our expectation.

Nifty (18534.10, +0.25%) can rise above 18600 today. The view is bullish to see 18800-19000 in the near-term. 18500-18400 is a good support zone.

Nikkei (32045.83, +1.65%) has surged well above our expected level of 32000. A further rise to 32800-33000 looks possible before a pause is seen.

Shanghai (3237.40, +0.23%) is attempting to break above 3240. A sustained move above 3240 can see a rise towards 3300. This may negate the chances of seeing a fall towards 3125-3100.


Crude prices opened higher in today's session after the Saudi Arabia announced a production cut by 1mln barrels per day from July in yesterday's OPEC+ meeting. But prices couldn't sustain the rise and is coming off sharply from the levels of $79 (Brent) and $75 (WTI), respectively. Gold and Silver fell sharply after the US jobs report shows that 339k fresh jobs were added to the economy in May. The strong labor market could lead Fed to continue to raise its interest rate in its upcoming June meeting. Copper tested the key resistance as expected and has come down from there.

As expected, Brent ($76.76) rose sharply to $78.73 just below the resistance at $79 and is coming off sharply from there. It is expected to trade in a broad sideways range of $80/79 and $72 for some time.

WTI ($72.45) opened higher near $75 but couldn't rise further and has declined towards $72. While below $75, it is expected to be ranged within $75-$67 for some time.

Gold (1961.30) fell sharply towards 1960 from the level of 2000 contrary to our expectation of seeing a rise to 2025 or higher. Support is at 1960-1950-1940. While these support levels hold, we can expect a rise back towards 2000. Else view can turn bearish towards 1925.

Silver (23.65) has declined towards 23.50 contrary to our expectation. The level of 23.50 is a key immediate support which if holds can lead to a rise towards 24-24.50. Else a test of 23 can be seen.

Copper (3.7105) tested the resistance near 3.80 as expected and has come down from there. While below 3.80, it is expected to trade within 3.80-3.65 for some time.


5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
...Kshitij Expn 62.7 ...Expected 57.0 ...Previous 62.0

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
...Kshitij Expn 2.4 ...Expected 2.1 ...Previous 2.6

12:30 18:00 US NFP
...Kshitij Expn 259K ...Expected 189K ...Previous 294K ...Actual 339K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
...Kshitij Expn 3.6% ...Expected 3.5% ...Previous 3.4% ...Actual 3.7%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
...Kshitij Expn 0.4 ...Expected 0.3 ...Previous 0.4 ...Actual 0.3

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
...Kshitij Expn 0.38% ...Expected - ...Previous 0.4% ...Actual 0.5%

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto.

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