Kshitij Consultancy Services
Morning Briefing
Daily forecasts on global Stocks, Commodity, Forex and Interest Rates markets
01 Dec 23. 0915 IST or 0345 GMT or 2245 EST

To receive “Morning Briefing” in your email inbox and WhatsApp everyday please register.

Several data releases were seen yesterday. Higher German Unemployment rate, lower inflation rate for Eurozone, higher US Jobless claims, higher US Personal income and personal spending, OPEC+ meeting outcome, decent recovery in US yields across all timeframes all put together has brought in volatility in the markets. Euro has faced downward pressure breaking below 1.09 but holds above support at 1.0850 above which some hopes of potential rise is still in place. Dollar Index has moved up taking support at 102.50 but while below 104, there are chances of a fall back again soon. Overall immediate movements are likely to be a reaction to market news and data released yesterday. PMI data releases for most countries are due today which could keep the market volatility alive. Most currencies have seen a correction within an ongoing movement seen over the last 1-week but the overall larger trend is likely to remain intact as the corrections may last for a few more sessions.

Dollar Index (103.339) rose sharply taking support at 102.50 as EURUSD (1.0906) broke below 1.09 overnight but is holding well above support at 1.0850. While Dollar Index remains below 104 and Euro above 1.0850, there are chances for testing respective targets of 102-101.50 and 1.10/11 respectively.

EURJPY (161.40) rose sharply from 160.59 and could trade in a range of 162-160.50 before moving lower eventually.

Dollar-Yen (148.02) has bounced from 146.67 in line with the rise in Dollar Index. The rise could extend to 149-149.50 before reversing back towards 147/146 in the longer run.

USDCNY (7.1363) seems to be finding support at 7.12 and could be ranged within 7.12-7.15/16 for some sessions before falling lower towards 7.10/05. Overall view is bearish while below 7.15.

Aussie (0.6610) has been highly volatile between 0.6675-0.6570 over the last 3-sessions. We may expect some more of volatility for the next few sessions before showing a clear direction from here on either side.

Pound (1.2644) came off from levels below 1.2750 but while it trades above 1.26, there is scope for an eventual rise towards 1.28 soon.

USDRUB (89.8422) has moved up but needs to break and sustain above 90 to pick up upside momentum else can fall back to 88/87 in the next few sessions.

USDINR (83.40) closed higher at 83.40 before showing some dip in the NDF markets. With slightly higher US Dollar and weaker Euro, would USDINR attempt to rise above 83.40? Or maybe it could continue trading within 83.40-83.25 for a few more sessions. However, charts show a potential rise to 83.50 soon.

EURINR (90.8554) has immediate support just above 90.50 which if holds can produce bounce towards 91-91.50 in the next few sessions.


The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply. Need to see if they sustain the rise and get a strong follow-through rise from here or not. The US PCE rose 3.5% (YoY) in October, down from 3.68% a month ago. The German yields remain lower and stable. The outlook is bearish, and the yields have room to fall more. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI continues to oscillate within their sideways range.

The US 10Yr (4.33%) and the 30Yr (4.51%) yields have risen back. A strong follow-through rise above 4.4% (10Yr) from here will be bullish to see 4.6%-4.8% and even higher levels. The 30Yr can rise above 4.6% if it sustains above 4.5%.

The German 10Yr (2.44%) and the 30Yr (2.68%) yields remain stable. We retain our view of seeing a fall to 2.4%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.6%-2.5% (30Yr) is possible while below 2.5% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.2803%) and 5Yr GOI (7.2604%) have risen back within their 7.2%-7.3% range. The bias on the 10Yr is bullish to break above 7.3% and rise to 7.4%. But the 5Yr continues to remain mixed and unclear still.


Dow Jones has risen sharply above 35500 and can now rise further on the upside. DAX remains bullish to rise towards it crucial resistance in the near term. Nifty outlook is bullish while above the support at 20000-19900. Nikkei has bounced back keeping the 33000-34000 range tarde intact. Shanghai is coming down as expected and can fall towards 3000-2950.

Dow (35950.89, +1.47%) has surged above 35500. It can test 36300-36500 next.

DAX (16215.43, +0.30%) is heading up towards 16500-16600 in line with our expectation. A break above 16300 can accelerate the rise.

Nifty (20133.15, +0.18%) sustains well above 20000. This keeps intact out bullish view of seeing 20300-20400 on the upside. 20,000 and 19,900 are good supports.

Nikkei (33530, +0.13%) has bounced back above 33500. This keeps our 34000-33000 range trade intact.

Shanghai (3017.62, -0.4%) has fallen below 3020. View remains bearish for a fall towards 3000 or even lower to 2950.


Crude prices fell sharply from levels below their key resistance after OPEC+ announced that it will reduce its output of crude oil by 1 million barrels per day but didn't provide any information on how the cutbacks would be carried out. Gold and Silver can fall back if they fails to overcome the hurdle at 2075 and 26 respectively. Copper is holding well above the support at 3.80 and looks bullish to rise towards its resistance. Natural gas is bearish while it stays below 2.90.

Brent ($80.48) rose to $84.59 in line with expectations to see a rise towards $84-85 and has fallen back sharply from there. But has managed to hold above the immediate support at $80.50-80. It can trade within a broad $85-77 range with a bit bearish view while it stays below $85.

WTI ($75.75) tested a high of $79.60 in with our expectation to see a test of $80 and has declined sharply from there to levels below $76. Immediate support is at $75. But while below the resistance at $80, there is scope for a break below $75 and fall towards $73-72 or even lower to $71.50. For now a broad range of $72-80 can hold for some time.

Gold (2061.10) fell to 2051.20 yesterday and has bounced back slightly from there. A sustained break above 2075 can see an extended rise to 2090-2100. Else it can dip towards 2025.

Silver (25.74) is slowly inching up towards the resistance at 26. Only a strong break above it can see a rise towards 26.50 or higher. Else it can see a dip towards 25.40-25.00.

Copper (3.8595) has risen above 3.85 as the support at 3.80 is holding well. View is bullish for a rise towards 3.90-4.00 while it remains above 3.80-3.78.

Natural Gas (2.7990) remains stable above 2.75. Immediate resistance is at 2.90. While that holds, there is potential for a fall towards 2.70 or even lower to 2.50.


23:30 5:00 JP Unemp
...Kshitij Expn 2.8% ...Expected 2.6% ...Previous 2.6%

0:30 6:00 JP PMI
...Kshitij Expn 47.8 ...Expected 48.1 ...Previous 48.7

1:45 7:15 CN PMI
...Kshitij Expn 50.2 ...Expected 49.3 ...Previous 49.5

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
...Kshitij Expn 56.3 ...Expected - ...Previous 55.5

8:00 13:30 CH GDP
...Kshitij Expn - ...Expected 0.1% ...Previous 0.0%

8:30 14:00 CH PMI
...Kshitij Expn 41.7 ...Expected 42.0 ...Previous 40.6

9:00 14:30 EU PMI
...Kshitij Expn - ...Expected 43.8 ...Previous 43.1

9:30 15:00 UK PMI
...Kshitij Expn 45.2 ...Expected 46.7 ...Previous 44.8

13:30 19:00 CA Labour Force
...Kshitij Expn - ...Expected 18.5K ...Previous 17.5K

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
...Kshitij Expn 49.1 ...Expected - ...Previous 48.6

15:00 20:30 US Manufacturing ISM
...Kshitij Expn 46.5 ...Expected 47.7 ...Previous 46.7

23:30 5:00 JP Unemp
...Kshitij Expn 2.8% ...Expected 2.6% ...Previous 2.6%

10:00 15:30 EU Unemp
...Kshitij Expn 6.4% ...Expected 6.5% ...Previous 6.5%

12:00 17:30 IN GDP
...Kshitij Expn - ...Expected - ...Previous 7.8%

13:30 19:00 US Personal Income
...Kshitij Expn 0.5% ...Expected 0.2% ...Previous 0.3%

13:30 19:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
...Kshitij Expn 0.3% ...Expected 0.2% ...Previous 0.3%

13:30 19:00 CA GDP
...Kshitij Expn - ...Expected 0.1% ...Previous 0.0%

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto.

Morning Briefing is one of our premium services. You can view the full content only for few days. To receive Morning Briefing in your Email and Whatsapp everyday please register.


Your free view of Morning Briefing will end soon. To continue viewing it please register.

Indian Rupee Market | Long-term Forecasts | Economic Calendar | Graph Gallery | Colour of Money | Free Data | Testimonials | About Us | Site Map