GOOD MORNING!
FOREX
The DXY has risen as expected and could test 98 while the Euro is declining towards 1.17. EURINR could continue to dip towards support near 107-106.50. EURJPY can test 184 a break above which is needed for a further rise to 186. USDJPY has moved up well and can test 156. USDCNY is stuck just above 6.90 and may continue so with immediate upside limited to 6.92.
The Aussie can test 0.70/69 while below 0.7150 while the Pound can test 1.34/1.3350 before pausing for a bounce. USDINR rallied to 91.18 on the NDF and needs to see if such a rally is seen today on the Onshore which could open chances of 91.25/91.50. Else the earlier range of 90.80-90.40 could continue to hold today.
Dollar Index (97.863) is rising as expected and headed towards 98. A break past 98 will take the index further up to 98.75-99 before pausing for a correction.
EURUSD (1.1768) has dipped below 1.18 in line with our expectations and is headed towards 1.17 in the near term.
EURINR (107.2034) has dipped to initial support near 107. There is lower support seen at 106.5. Either of the levels could hold and produce a bounce back towards 108 and higher in the longer run.
EURJPY (182.49) is looking bullish for the near term with initial resistance at 184, a break above which could open doors on the upside towards 186-188 in the longer run. Watch price action near 184.
Dollar-Yen (155.08) has also risen as expected along with a rise in the Dollar Index. Immediate resistance is seen near 156 below which a dip back to 154-152 looks possible.
USDCNY (6.9081) is stable and likely to trade within the 6.90-6.92 region for the near term.
Aussie (0.7050) needs to bounce back from 0.70 else could fall towards 0.69 in he next few sessions.
Pound (1.3457) is headed towards support near 1.34/1.3350 from where a bounce can be expected for the medium term.
USDINR (90.6725) closed at 90.6725 on Wednesday. Yesterday, the market being closed for Shivaji Jayanti, the spot rallied to 91.18 on the offshore NDF. It would be crucial to see if such a rise is seen today on the OTC market in which case a test of 91.25/91.50 could be targeted. Else the earlier range of 90.80-90.40 can continue to hold today.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury yields have come off from their highs. That keeps the downside open to fall more before a reversal happens. The US PCE data release today will need a close watch. The German Yields remain stable and range bound. The near-term picture is weak. The yields have room to fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI is holding well above its supports. We can expect the yield to rise in the coming days. Support is there to limit the downside.
The US 10Yr (4.06%) and 30Yr (4.69%) Treasury yields have come down from their highs. That keeps the downside open to see 4%-3.95% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.55% (30Yr). Thereafter a rise is possible.
The German 10Yr (2.74%) and 30Yr (3.41%) yields are struggling to rise. We retain our view of seeing a fall to 2.7%-2.65% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr).
The 10Yr GoI (6.6780%) is holding above 6.64%. That keeps intact our bullish bias to see a rise back to 6.7%-6.8%. We reiterate that 6.6%-6.8% can be the trading range and the yield can rise within it.
STOCKS
Global markets are mixed. The Dow is holding above support and can move up towards 49800–50000. DAX has fallen from recent highs but can recover towards 25300–25500 as long as it holds above 24900–24800. Nifty has reversed lower but can bounce towards 25600–25800 while above 25300, else it may slip to 25200–25000. Nikkei remains weak with downside towards 56150–56000. Shanghai is closed for the holiday and will reopen on 24-Feb-26.
Dow (49509, +0.10%) is hovering above its immediate support and, as long as it holds, a bounce towards 49800–50000 remains likely.
DAX (25097, +0.15%) rose to a high of 25371 and closed at 25339 on 18-Feb-26. However, yesterday it failed to sustain at higher levels and fell sharply to a low of 25016. Immediate support is seen near 24900–24800, while holding above this keeps the possibility of a rise towards 25300–25500 in the near term.
Nifty (25,454.35, -1.41%) reversed sharply to a low of 25388.75 yesterday, in line with our expectations. While it holds above 25300, a bounce back towards 25600–25800 can be seen in the near term. Alternatively, a sustained break below this can drag it down to 25200–25000.
Nikkei (56815.0, -2.32%) is falling in line with our expectations, with a further decline towards 56150–56000 likely in the near term.
Shanghai (4082.07, -1.26%) is closed for a week-long Lunar New Year (Spring Festival) holiday. Normal trading sessions will resume from 24-Feb-26.
COMMODITIES
Brent has risen on geopolitical risks and needs to sustain above $72 to move towards $74–$76. While WTI must hold above $66 to extend gains towards $68–$70. Gold is likely to stay range-bound between $5100–$4800 and Silver between $80–$70 in the near term. Copper has bounced from support, but a break above $5.8 is needed for a rise towards $6.0–$6.2. Natural Gas looks weak, and a sustained break below current support can drag it lower towards $2.7–$2.6.
Brent ($71.96) shot up to $72.12 yesterday due to mounting geopolitical risks in the Middle East. A sustained break above $72 is needed for a further rise towards $74–$76.
WTI ($66.73) has risen above $66 and needs to hold above this level for a further rise towards $68–$70 in the near term.
Gold ($5017.10) can remain in a narrow range of $5100–$4800 for some time.
Silver ($78.15) also looks likely to hold within a range of $80–$70 for some time.
Copper ($5.7490) has bounced from support in line with our expectations. It now needs to break above $5.8 to continue the rise towards $6.0–$6.2. Else, it can fall towards $5.5–$5.4.
Natural Gas ($2.9860) is attempting to break below support, contrary to our expectations, after weekly natural gas storage levels fell less than expected. A sustained break below this can drag it down to $2.7–$2.6.
DATA TODAY
GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP CPI
...Kshitij 2.8 ...Expectations 2.0 ...Previous 2.1
13:30 19:00 US Personal Income
...Kshitij 0.3 ...Expectations 0.3 ...Previous 0.3
13:30 19:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
...Kshitij 0.3 ...Expectations 0.4 ...Previous 0.2
13:30 19:00 US Core PCE
...Kshitij 0.3 ...Expectations 0.4 ...Previous 0.2
13:30 19:00 US GDP
...Expectations 3.20 ...Previous 4.30
15:00 20:30 US New Home Sales
...Kshitij 726 ...Expectations 736 ...Previous 737
DATA YESTERDAY
================
GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Labour Force
...Expectations 20.1 ...Previous 65.2 ...Actual 17.8
GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Trade Balance
...Expectations -85.7 ...Previous -56.8 ...Actual
GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Philifed Index
...Expectations 7.8 ...Previous 12.6 ...Actual
DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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