Kshitij Consultancy Services
Morning Briefing Daily forecasts on global Stocks, Commodity, Forex and Interest Rates markets
18 Apr 19. 0856 IST or 0326 GMT or 2326 EST

Equities broadly remain bullish. But a dip in the near-term looks likely before we see a fresh rally. Sensex and Nifty has broken the range on the upside as expected and could be gearing-up to make record highs in the coming weeks.

The resistance at 26500 seems to be holding well for the Dow (26449.54, -3.12, -0.01%). We retain the bullish outlook for a rise to 26750 and 27000. However, a dip to 26250 cannot be ruled out before the Dow breaks above 26500 decisively and gears-up for a further rally.

DAX (12153.07, +51.75, +0.43%) has risen breaking above the key resistance level of 12030 and is currently poised in the next crucial 12150-12200 resistance zone. A test of 12200 is likely in the coming sessions. A pull-back from 12200 can take the DAX lower to 12100 and 12000 again.

Nikkei (22172.73, -105.24, -0.47%) has come-off sharply after making a high of 22345 yesterday. A dip to 22100 looks likely in the near term.

Shanghai (3264.67, +1.55, +0.05%) has risen back sharply from around 3150 as against our expectation to test 3130. Resistance is in between 3280 and 3300 which can be tested in the near term. A pull-back from this resistance zone can drag the index down to 3200 and 3150 again. But a strong break above 3300 will pave way for a fresh rally to 3350 and 3400.

Sensex (39275.64, +369.80, +0.95%) and Nifty (11787.15, +96.80, +0.83%) has broken the range above 39000 and 11700 respectively as expected. The outlook is bullish. Sensex can rise to 39500 or even higher levels. Nifty can target 11900 and 12000. However, a dip to 39000 on the Sensex and 11700 on the Nifty cannot ruled out in the near term before we see these indices targeting the above mentioned levels.


Gold has broken below a crucial support and turns bearish for further fall. But Silver is holding around 15 and looks mixed in the near term. Copper might see some upticks in the coming sessions. Oil looks mixed.

Gold (1274) has declined breaking below the crucial support level of 1280. The region between 1280 and 1283 will now act as a good resistance and cap the upside. A fall to 1265 and 1260 can be seen in the coming days.

Silver (14.98) looks mixed and is oscillating around the psychological level of 15. It could trade sideways between 14.80 and 15.10 for some time. Within this range, a dip to 14.9-14.85 is possible in the coming sessions.

Copper (2.96) spiked to 2,99 and has come-off from there. Immediate support is at 2.95. While above this support, the bias is bullish for it to test 3.0 in the coming sessions. But a break below 2.95 can take it down to 2.92.

Brent (71.50) remains mixed. It has come-off after making a high around 72.25 and looks likely to dip to 70.90-70.75.

WTI (63.7) has been oscillating between 63 and 64.8 for some time. Within this range, a dip to 63 can be seen in the coming sessions. A break below 63 can drag WTI lower to 62. A strong break above 64.8 is needed to boost the momentum and take the prices to 66 and even higher levels.


Currencies looks mixed. Dollar-Yen and Euro-Yen might dip in the near term while the Euro can see some upticks before a fresh fall. Aussie is hovering around a key resistance, but looks likely to breach it and move higher in the coming days. Dollar-Rupee remains bullish.

The Dollar Index (97.01) seems to be not gaining strength although it is managing to hold above 96.62 - the 21-week moving average support. A dip to 96.85-96.80 looks likely in the near term and a bounce from there can take it back to 97.10.

The Euro (1.1295) continues to face resistance around 1.1325 and dip to 1.1275. Near-term support is around 1.1265. While this support holds, the bias is slightly positive for the Euro to break 1.1325 and test 1.1350 in the near term before we see a fresh fall.

The Euro-Yen (126.42) looks mixed as it is stuck in a narrow range between 126.2 and 126.8 over the last few days. A break below 126.2 can take it to 126 and 125.7. On the other hand a rise to 127.5 is possible on a break above 126.8.

Dollar-Yen (111.95) seems to lack strong follow-through buyers above 112 and looks vulnerable to test 111.50 in the coming sessions.

The Aussie (0.7180) has come-off after testing the key resistance at 0.72. It may remain range bound between 0.7150 and 0.72 for some time and a breakout on either side will decide the next move. On the charts, the possibility remains high for the Aussie to breach 0.72 and rally to 0.73 in the coming weeks.

Chinese Yuan (6.6913) has broken below the key support level of 6.70. A test of 6.67 looks likely in the near term.

Dollar-Rupee (69.6050) keeps the bullish view intact for a test of 69.75 in the near term. A break above 69.75 will take it further higher to 70. Support is in between 69.50 and 69.45.


The US 2Yr (2.39%), 5Yr (2.39%), 10Yr (2.58%) and 30Yr (2.98%) have dipped from 2.42%, 2.42%, 2.61% and 3.01% respectively. The resistance around 3% on the 30Yr seems to be holding well and a dip to 2.95% is likely while it remains below 3%.

The German 2Yr (-0.566%) has dipped slightly and the 5Yr (-0.36%) remains stable. The 10Yr (0.08%) and 30Yr (0.73%) have risen breaking above their respective resistances of 0.07% and 0.70% and looks bullish to test 0.1% and 0.8% in the near term.

The 10Yr GOI (7.5399%) yield can dip to test 7.50% in the near term after which a bounce to 7.55% and 7.57% again.


1:30 7:00 Australia Labour Force
...Kshitij Expn 18.0 K ...Expected 15.2 K ...Preevious 10.7 K ...Actual 25.7 K

12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
...Kshitij Expn 0.14 % ...Expected 0.90 % ...Previous -0.23 %

12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index
...Kshitij Expn 5.29 ...Expected 11.2 ...Previous 13.7

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
...Kshitij Expn 1228 K ...Expected 1230 K ...Previous 1162 K


CN Retail Sales
...Expected 8.3 ...Previous 8.2 ...Actual 8.7

...Expected 6.30 ...Previous 6.4 ...Actual 6.4

...Expected 5.6 ...Previous 5.3 ...Actual 8.5

...Kshitij Expn 1.87 % ...Expected 2.00 % ...Previous 1.81 % ...Actual 1.90 %

...Kshitij Expn 0.72 % ...Expected 1.40 % ...Previous 1.31 % ...Actual 1.30 %

EU Trade Bal
...Expected 16.8 EUR Bln ...Previous 17.4 EUR Bln ...Actual 19.5 EUR Bln

US Trade Balance
...Kshitij Expn -53.1 $ Bln ...Expected -53.5 $ Bln ...Previous -51.1 $ Bln ...Actual -49.4 $ Bln

CA Inflation Y/Y
...Kshitij Expn 1.4 % ...Expected 1.4 % ...Previous 1.5 % ...Actual 1.6 %

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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