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Kshitij USDINR forecasts beat market consensus

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OCTOBER - 2019
DATE	TIME		ECONOMIC DATA	UNIT	EXPECTATIONS		PREV	ACTUAL
	GMT	IST			KSHITIJ	MARKET
1-Oct-19	22:30	4:00	AU PMI	Index	-	-	53.1	54.7
	23:30	5:00	JP Unemp	%	2.2	2.3	2.2	2.2
	23:50	5:20	JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	Index	-	1	7	5
	1:30	7:00	JP PMI	Index	49.3	49.3	48.9	48.9
	4:30	10:00	RBA Meeting	%	-	0.75	1.00	0.75
	5:00	10:30	IN Manufacturing PMI	Index	51.5	51.8	51.4	51.4
	7:30	13:00	CH PMI	Index	45.9	46.5	47.2	44.6
	8:00	13:30	EU PMI	Index	-	-	45.6	45.7
	8:30	14:00	UK PMI	Index	47.2	47.0	47.4	48.3
	12:30	18:00	CA GDP	%	-	-	0.2	0.0
	14:00	19:30	US Manufacturing ISM	Index	49.5	50.4	49.1	47.8
	14:00	19:30	CA PMI	Index	-	-	49.1	51.0
2-Oct-19	6:30	12:00	CH CPI	%	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.1
	12:15	17:45	US ADP Emp	K	158	140	157	135
3-Oct-19	0:30	6:00	Australia Trade Balance	A$ Bln	-	6.00	7.25	5.93
	9:00	14:30	EU Retail Sales	%	-	0.3	-0.5	0.3
4-Oct-19	5:00	10:30	IN Services PMI	Index	-	52.1	52.4	48.7
	6:15	11:45	RBI Repo Rate	%	-	5.15	5.40	5.15
	6:15	11:45	RBI Reverse Repo Rate	%	-	4.90	5.15	4.90
	6:15	11:45	RBI MSF	%	-	-	5.65	5.40
	12:30	18:00	US NFP	K	-	140	168	136
	12:30	18:00	US Unemployment Rate	%	-	3.7	3.7	3.5
	12:30	18:00	US Avg Hrly Earnings	%	-	0.3	0.4	0.0
	12:30	18:00	US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees	%	-	-	0.43	0.17
	12:30	18:00	US Trade Balance	$ Bln	-	-54.7	-54.0	-54.9
8-Oct-19	3:15	8:45	CN PMI	Index	-	-	51.6	51.9
8-Oct-19	12:30	18:00	US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)	%	-	-	0.3	-0.3
	12:30	18:00	US PPI	%	-	-	0.1	-0.3
10-Oct-19	8:30	14:00	UK Trade Bal	GBP (Bln)	-9.75	-10.0	-9.6	-9.81
	12:30	18:00	US CPI (MoM)	%	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
	12:30	18:00	US Core CPI (MoM)	%	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1
11-Oct-19	12:00	17:30	IN IIP	%	-	1.8	4.6	-1.1
	12:30	18:00	CA Labour Force	K	-	11.2	81.1	53.7
14-Oct-19	6:30	12:00	IN WPI	%	0.8	0.90	1.08	0.33
	9:00	14:30	EU Ind Prodn (MoM)	%	0.3	0.3	-0.4	0.4
	12:00	17:30	IN CPI	%	3.55	3.70	3.28	3.99
15-Oct-19	1:30	7:00	CN CPI (YoY)	%	-	2.9	2.8	3.0
	1:30	7:00	CN PPI	%	-	-1.2	-0.8	-1.2
	8:30	14:00	UK Unemp	%	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.9
	12:30	18:00	IN Trade bal	$ Bln	-12.8	-12.9	-13.5	-10.9
16-Oct-19	8:30	14:00	UK CPI Y/Y	%	1.86	1.80	1.78	1.78
	9:00	14:30	EU CPI (YoY)	%	0.9	1.0	1.0	0.8
	9:00	14:30	EU Trade Bal	EUR Bln	-	18.6	19.0	20.3
	12:30	18:00	US Retail Sales (MoM)	%	1.1	0.3	0.6	-0.3
	12:30	18:00	CA Inflation Y/Y	%	2.1	2.0	1.9	1.9
	20:00	1:30	US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)	$ Bln	-	74.3	83.8	-41.1
17-Oct-19	1:30	7:00	Australia Labour Force	K	22.7	15.3	37.9	14.7
	12:30	18:00	US Philifed Index	Index	-	7.3	12.0	5.6
	12:30	18:00	US Housing Starts	K	1351	1320	1386	1256
	13:15	18:45	US Industrial Production	%	0.4	-0.1	0.7	-0.4
	13:15	18:45	US Capacity Utilization	%	78.0	77.7	77.9	77.5
18-Oct-19	23:30	5:00	JP CPI	%	-	0.4	0.2	0.2
	2:00	7:30	CN GDP	%	-	6.10	6.2	6.0
	2:00	7:30	CN Retail Sales	%	-	7.8	7.5	7.8
	2:00	7:30	CN IIP (YoY)	%	-	5.0	4.4	5.8
22-Oct-19	14:00	19:30	US Existing Home Sales	K	-	-	5490	-
24-Oct-19	11:45	17:15	ECB Mtg	%	-	-	0.00	-
	12:30	18:00	US Durable Goods Orders	%	-	-	0.18	-
	14:00	19:30	US New Home Sales	K	-	-	713	-
25-Oct-19	8:00	13:30	GER IFO Business Climate	Index	-	-	94.6	-
	8:00	13:30	GER IFO Business Situations	Index	-	-	98.5	-
	8:00	13:30	GER IFO Business Expectations	Index	-	-	90.8	-
29-Oct-19	13:00	18:30	US Case Schiller	%
29-Oct-19	14:00	19:30	US Cons Conf	Index


OCTOBER - 2019
				Expectations
GMT	IST	1-Oct-19		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
22:30	4:00	AU PMI	Index	-	-	53.1	54.7
23:30	5:00	JP Unemp	%	2.2	2.3	2.2	2.2
23:50	5:20	JP Tankan Manf Index	Index	-	1	7	5
1:30	7:00	JP PMI	Index	49.3	49.3	48.9	48.9
4:30	10:00	RBA Meeting	%	-	0.75	1.00	0.75
5:00	10:30	IN Manufacturing PMI	Index	51.5	51.8	51.4	51.4
7:30	13:00	CH PMI	Index	45.9	46.5	47.2	44.6
8:00	13:30	EU PMI	Index	-	-	45.6	45.7
8:30	14:00	UK PMI	Index	47.2	47.0	47.4	48.3
12:30	18:00	CA GDP	%	-	0.1	0.2	0.0
14:00	19:30	US Manufacturing ISM	Index	49.5	50.4	49.1	47.8
14:00	19:30	CA PMI	Index	-	-	49.1	51.0
GMT	IST	2-Oct-19		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
6:30	12:00	CH CPI	%	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.1
12:15	17:45	US ADP Emp	K	158	140	157	135
GMT	IST	3-Oct-19		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
0:30	6:00	Australia Trade Bal	A$ Bln	-	6.00	7.25	5.93
9:00	14:30	EU Retail Sales	%	-	0.3	-0.5	0.3
GMT	IST	4-Oct-19		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
5:00	10:30	IN Services PMI	Index	-	52.1	52.4	48.7
6:15	11:45	RBI Repo Rate	%	-	5.15	5.40	5.15
6:15	11:45	RBI Rev Repo Rate	%	-	4.90	5.15	4.90
6:15	11:45	RBI MSF	%	-	-	5.65	5.40
12:30	18:00	US NFP	K	-	140	168	136
12:30	18:00	US Unemp Rate	%	-	3.7	3.7	3.5
12:30	18:00	US Avg Hrly Earnings	%	-	0.3	0.4	0.0
12:30	18:00	US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees	%	-	-	0.43	0.17
12:30	18:00	US Trade Balance	$ Bln	-	-54.7	-54.0	-54.9
GMT	IST	8-Oct-19		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
3:15	8:45	CN PMI	Index	-	-	51.6	51.9
12:30	18:00	US Core PPI	%	-	-	0.3	-0.3
12:30	18:00	US PPI	%	-	-	0.1	-0.3
GMT	IST	10-Oct-19		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
8:30	14:00	UK Trade Bal	GBP (Bln)	-9.75	-10.0	-9.6	-9.81
12:30	18:00	US CPI (MoM)	%	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
12:30	18:00	US Core CPI (MoM)	%	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1
GMT	IST	11-Oct-19		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
12:00	17:30	IN IIP	%	-	1.8	4.6	-1.1
12:30	18:00	CA Labour Force	K	-	11.2	81.1	53.7
GMT	IST	14-Oct-19		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
6:30	12:00	IN WPI	%	0.8	0.90	1.08	0.33
9:00	14:30	EU Ind Prodn (MoM)	%	0.3	0.3	-0.4	0.4
12:00	17:30	IN CPI	%	3.55	3.70	3.28	3.99
GMT	IST	15-Oct-19		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
1:30	7:00	CN CPI (YoY)	%	-	2.9	2.8	3.0
1:30	7:00	CN PPI	%	-	-1.2	-0.8	-1.2
8:30	14:00	UK Unemp	%	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.9
12:30	18:00	IN Trade bal	$ Bln	-12.8	-12.9	-13.5	-10.9
GMT	IST	16-Oct-19		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
8:30	14:00	UK CPI Y/Y	%	1.86	1.80	1.78	1.78
9:00	14:30	EU CPI (YoY)	%	0.9	1.0	1.0	0.8
9:00	14:30	EU Trade Bal	EUR Bln	-	18.6	19.0	20.3
12:30	18:00	US Retail Sales (MoM)	%	1.1	0.3	0.6	-0.3
12:30	18:00	CA Inflation Y/Y	%	2.1	2.0	1.9	1.9
20:00	1:30	US TICS�	$ Bln	-	74.3	83.8	-41.1
GMT	IST	17-Oct-19		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
1:30	7:00	Australia Lab Force	K	22.7	15.3	37.9	14.7
12:30	18:00	US Philifed Index	Index	-	7.3	12.0	5.6
12:30	18:00	US Housing Starts	K	1351	1320	1386	1256
13:15	18:45	US Ind Production	%	0.4	-0.1	0.7	-0.4
13:15	18:45	US Cap Utilization	%	78.0	77.7	77.9	77.5
GMT	IST	18-Oct-19		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
23:30	5:00	JP CPI	%	-	0.40	0.20	0.20
2:00	7:30	CN GDP	%	-	6.10	6.2	6.0
2:00	7:30	CN Retail Sales	%	-	7.8	7.5	7.8
2:00	7:30	CN IIP (YoY)	%	-	5.0	4.4	5.8
GMT	IST	22-Oct-19		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
14:00	19:30	US Ex Home Sales	K	-	-	5490	-
GMT	IST	24-Oct-19		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
11:45	17:15	ECB Mtg	%	-	-	0.00	-
12:30	12:30	US Dur Goods Orders	%	-	-	0.18	-
14:00	19:30	US New Home Sales	K	-	-	713	-
GMT	IST	25-Oct-19		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
8:00	13:30	GER IFO Bus Climate	Index	-	-	94.6	-
8:00	13:30	GER IFO Bus Situations	Index	-	-	98.5	-
8:00	13:30	GER IFO Bus Expn	Index	-	-	90.8	-

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Shyam Group of Companies
Bengaluru

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Marico Ltd.
Mumbai

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Lupin Ltd.
Mumbai

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OCTOBER - 2019
MONDAY		TUESDAY		WEDNESDAY		THURSDAY		FRIDAY
		1	CN	2	CN, IN	3	CN, EU	4	CN
			RBA Mtg		CH CPI	3	AU Trade Bal		IN Svcs PMI
			AU PMI		US ADP Emp		EU Retail Sales		RBI Mtg
			JP Tankan						US NFP
			JP PMI						US Unemp
			JP Unemp						US Avg Hrly Earnings
			IN Manf PMI						US Trade Bal
			CH PMI
			UK PMI
			EU PMI
			US ISM
			CA PMI

7	AU, CN	8	IN	9		10	UK Trade Bal	11	IN IIP
			US PPI				US CPI		CA Lab Force
			US Core PPI				US Core CPI


14	JP, US, CA	15	UK Unemp	16	UK CPI	17	AU Lab Force	18	JP CPI
	IN WPI		CN CPI (YoY)		EU CPI		US Ind Prodn		CN Retail Sales
	IN CPI		CN PPI		EU Trade Bal		US Cap Util		CN IIP
	EU Ind Prodn		In Trade Bal		US Retail Sales		US Philli Fed		CN GDP
					US TIC		US Hsg Starts
					CA CPI

21		22	US Ex Home Sales	23		24	ECB Mtg	25	GER IFO
							US Dur Goods
							US New Home Sales



28	IN	29	US Cons Conf	30	AU CPI	31	BOJ Mtg
28		29	US Case Schiller	30	EU Biz Climate	31	UK Cons Conf
					US GDP		EU GDP
					US ADP Emp		EU Unemp
					FOMC Mtg		US Pers. Inc.
					BOC Mtg		US PCE
							CA GDP


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