Economic Calendar

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Lower Crude suggests global growth to slow in 2020

The YoY (%) change in Crude is well correlated with global growth. Market consensus is for global growth to pick up in 2020 and 2021. But we expect Crude to dip further in 2020. As such the growth projections are likely to be revised lower which in turn can result in a strong sell-off in the global equities post March 2020.

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FEBRUARY - 2020
DATE	TIME		ECONOMIC DATA	UNIT	EXPECTATIONS		PREV	ACTUAL
	GMT	IST			KSHITIJ	MARKET
3-Feb-20	22:30	4:00	AU PMI	Index	48.8	-	48.3	45.4
	1:30	7:00	JP PMI	Index	48.1	49.3	49.3	48.8
	3:15	8:45	CN PMI	Index	-	51.0	51.5	51.1
	5:00	10:30	IN Manufacturing PMI	Index	52.7	52.8	52.7	55.3
	7:30	13:00	CH PMI	Index	49.2	50.3	50.2	47.8
	9:00	14:30	EU PMI	Index	-	47.8	47.8	47.9
	9:30	15:00	UK PMI	Index	48.9	49.8	49.8	50.0
	14:00	19:30	US Manufacturing ISM	Index	47.5	48.5	47.2	50.9
	14:00	19:30	CA PMI		-	-	50.4	50.6
4-Feb-20	3:30	9:00	RBA Meeting	%	-	0.75	0.75	0.8
5-Feb-20	5:00	10:30	IN Services PMI	Index	54.2	52.4	53.3	55.5
	10:00	15:30	EU Retail Sales	%	-0.4	-0.5	0.8	-1.6
	13:15	18:45	US ADP Emp	K	186	150	199	291
	13:30	19:00	US Trade Balance	$ Bln	-45.9	-47.4	-43.7	-48.9
6-Feb-20	0:30	6:00	Australia Trade Balance	A$ Bln	-	5.60	5.52	5.22
	6:15	11:45	RBI Repo Rate	%	-	5.15	5.15	5.15
	6:15	11:45	RBI Rev Repo Rate	%	-	4.90	4.90	4.90
	6:15	11:45	RBI MSF	%	-	-	5.40	5.40
7-Feb-20	13:30	19:00	US NFP	K	627	160	147	225
	13:30	19:00	US Unemployment Rate	%	-	3.5	3.5	3.6
	13:30	19:00	US Avg Hrly Earnings		0.3	0.3	0.1	0.3
	13:30	19:00	US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees	%	-	-	0.1	0.1
	13:30	19:00	CA Labour Force	K	-	16.3	35.2	34.5
10-Feb-20	1:30	7:00	CN CPI (YoY)		-	4.9	4.5	5.4
	1:30	7:00	CN PPI		-	0.1	-0.5	0.1
	7:30	13:00	CH CPI		0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2
11-Feb-20	9:30	15:00	UK Trade Bal	GBP (Bln)	-7.0	-10.0	-4.9	0.9
	9:30	15:00	UK GDP	%	-	0.0	0.4	0.4
12-Feb-20	10:00	15:30	EU Ind Prodn (MoM)	%	-0.7	-1.8	0.0	-2.1
	12:00	17:30	IN IIP	%	-1.86	1.80	1.82	-0.30
	12:00	17:30	IN CPI		7.89	7.40	7.35	7.59
13-Feb-20	13:30	19:00	US Core CPI (MoM)	%	-	0.2	0.1	0.2
	13:30	19:00	US CPI (MoM)	%	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2
14-Feb-20	6:30	12:00	IN WPI	%	3.06	2.92	2.59	3.10
	10:00	15:30	EU Trade Bal	EUR Bln	-	19.1	19.1	22.2
	12:30	18:00	IN Trade bal	$ Bln	-11.5	-11.6	-11.3	-15.2
	13:30	19:00	US Retail Sales (MoM)	%	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.1
	14:15	19:45	US Industrial Production	%	-0.3	-0.2	-0.5	-0.3
	14:15	19:45	US Capacity Utilization	%	76.9	76.9	77.1	76.8
17-Feb-20	23:50	5:20	JP GDP	%	-	-1.0%	0.5%	-1.6%
18-Feb-20	9:30	15:00	UK Unemp	%	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.8
	21:00	2:30	US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)	$ Bln	-	31.4	27.1	85.6
19-Feb-20	9:30	15:00	UK CPI Y/Y	%	1.8	1.7	1.3	1.7
	13:30	19:00	US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)	%	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.5
	13:30	19:00	US PPI	%	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5
	13:30	19:00	US Housing Starts	K	1626	1400	1626	1567
	13:30	19:00	CA Inflation Y/Y	%	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.4
20-Feb-20	1:30	7:00	Australia Labour Force	K	-	10.0	28.7	13.5
	13:30	19:00	US Philifed Index		-	10.1	17.0	36.7
21-Feb-20	23:50	5:20	JP CPI		-	0.7	0.8	0.7
	10:00	15:30	EU CPI (YoY)	%	2.0	1.4	1.3	1.4
	15:00	20:30	US Existing Home Sales	K	5503	5480	5540	-
24-Feb-20	9:00	14:30	GER IFO Business Climate		95.3	-	95.9	-
	9:00	14:30	GER IFO Business Situations	Index	98.3	-	99.1	-
	9:00	14:30	GER IFO Business Expectations	Index	91.6	-	92.9	-
25-Feb-20	14:00	19:30	US Case Schiller	%	-	-	2.6	-
	15:00	20:30	US Cons Conf		-	-	131.6	-
26-Feb-20	14:00	19:30	US New Home Sales	K	-	-	694.0	-
27-Feb-20	10:00	15:30	EU Biz Climate		-	-	102.8	-
	13:30	19:00	US Durable Goods Orders	%	-	-	2.4	-
	13:30	19:00	US GDP	%	-	-	2.1	-
28-Feb-20	23:05	4:35	UK Cons Conf		-	-	-9.0	-
	23:30	5:00	JP Unemp	%	-	-	2.2	-
	12:00	17:30	IN GDP	%	-	-	4.50%	-
	13:30	19:00	CA GDP	%	-	-	0.1	-
	15:00	20:30	US Personal Income	%	-	-	0.2	-
	15:00	20:30	US PCE Price Index M/M	%	-	-	0.2	-


FEBRUARY - 2020
				Expectations
GMT	IST	3-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
22:30	4:00	AU PMI	Index	48.8	-	48.3	45.4
1:30	7:00	JP PMI	Index	48.1	49.3	49.3	48.8
3:15	8:45	CN PMI	Index	-	51.0	51.5	51.1
5:00	10:30	IN Manf PMI	Index	52.7	52.8	52.7	55.3
7:30	13:00	CH PMI	Index	49.2	50.3	50.2	47.8
9:00	14:30	EU PMI	Index	-	47.8	47.8	47.9
9:30	15:00	UK PMI	Index	48.9	49.8	49.8	50.0
14:00	19:30	US Manf ISM	Index	47.5	48.5	47.2	50.9
14:00	19:30	CA PMI		-	-	50.4	50.6
GMT	IST	4-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
3:30	9:00	RBA Meeting	%	-	0.75	0.75	0.75
GMT	IST	5-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
5:00	10:30	IN Services PMI	Index	54.2	52.4	53.3	55.5
10:00	15:30	EU Retail Sales	%	-0.4	-0.5	0.8	-1.6
13:15	18:45	US ADP Emp	K	186	150	199	291
13:30	19:00	US Trade Balance	$ Bln	-45.9	-47.4	-43.7	-48.9
GMT	IST	6-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
0:30	6:00	Au Trade Bal	A$ Bln	-	5.60	5.52	5.22
6:15	11:45	RBI Repo Rate	%	-	5.15	5.15	5.15
6:15	11:45	RBI Rev Repo Rate	%	-	4.90	4.90	4.90
6:15	11:45	RBI MSF	%	-	-	5.40	5.40
GMT	IST	7-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
13:30	19:00	US NFP	K	627	160	147	225
13:30	19:00	US Unemp Rate	%	-	3.5	3.5	3.6
13:30	19:00	US Avg Hrly Earn		0.3	0.3	0.1	0.3
13:30	19:00	US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees	%	-	-	0.1	0.1
13:30	19:00	CA Labour Force	K	-	16.3	35.2	34.5
GMT	IST	14-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
6:30	12:00	IN WPI	%	3.06	2.92	2.59	3.10
10:00	15:30	EU Trade Bal	EUR Bln	-	19.1	19.1	22.2
12:30	18:00	IN Trade bal	$ Bln	-11.5	-11.6	-11.3	-15.2
13:30	19:00	US Retail Sales (MoM)	%	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.1
14:15	19:45	US Industrial Production	%	-0.3	-0.2	-0.5	-0.3
14:15	19:45	US Capacity Utilization	%	76.9	76.9	77.1	76.8
GMT	IST	17-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
23:50	5:20	JP GDP	%	-	-1.0%	0.5%	-1.6%
GMT	IST	18-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
9:30	15:00	UK Unemp	%	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.8
21:00	2:30	US TICS	$ Bln	-	31.4	27.1	85.6
GMT	IST	19-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
9:30	15:00	UK CPI Y/Y	%	1.8	1.7	1.3	1.7
13:30	19:00	US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)	%	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.5
13:30	19:00	US PPI	%	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5
13:30	19:00	US Housing Starts	K	1626	1400	1626	1567
13:30	19:00	CA Inflation Y/Y	%	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.4
GMT	IST	20-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
1:30	7:00	Australia Lab Force	K	-	10.0	28.7	13.5
13:30	19:00	US Philifed Index		-	10.1	17.0	36.7
GMT	IST	21-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
23:50	5:20	JP CPI		-	0.7	0.8	0.7
10:00	15:30	EU CPI (YoY)	%	2.0	1.4	1.3	1.4
15:00	20:30	US Ex Home Sales	K	5503	5480	5540	-
GMT	IST	24-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
9:00	14:30	GER IFO Bus Clim.		95.3	-	95.9	-
9:00	14:30	GER IFO Bus Sitn	Index	98.3	-	99.1	-
9:00	14:30	GER IFO Bus Expn	Index	91.6	-	92.9	-
GMT	IST	25-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
14:00	14:00	US Case Schiller	%	-	-	2.6	-
15:00	15:00	US Cons Conf		-	-	131.6	-
GMT	IST	26-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
14:00	14:00	US New Home Sales	K	-	-	694.0	-
GMT	IST	27-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
10:00	10:00	EU Biz Climate		-	-	102.8	-
13:30	13:30	US Dur Goods	%	-	-	2.4	-
13:30	13:30	US GDP	%	-	-	2.1	-
GMT	IST	28-Feb-20		Kshitij	Market	Prev	Actual
23:05	23:05	UK Cons Conf		-	-	-9.0	-
23:30	23:30	JP Unemp	%	-	-	2.2	-
12:00	12:00	IN GDP	%	-	-	4.50%	-
13:30	13:30	CA GDP	%	-	-	0.1	-
15:00	15:00	US Pers. Inc.	%	-	-	0.2	-
15:00	15:00	US PCE Price Index	%	-	-	0.2	-

Download 2020 Economic Calendar

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Marico Ltd.
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Lupin Ltd.
Mumbai

WHAT'S NEW?

Feb'20 Monthly Forecast

Our Feb'20 Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

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Jan'20 EURUSD Report

The Euro has been stuck in a narrow range for more than two months now. Will it continue to remain sideways or will it break this range on either side? ... Read More

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Dec'19 USDJPY Report

Rising Gold and Nikkei, weaker Dollar Index and mixed signals from other important factors have been keeping Dollar-Yen ranged for the last one month. Keeping possibilities of the sideways range to continue, we examine chances of a sharper move that could come in the 1st quarter of 2020 in our Dec'19 report. ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Feb'20 Calendar Wallpaper

The YoY (%) change in Crude is well correlated with global growth. Market consensus is for global growth to pick up in 2020 and 2021. ....... Download Feb'20 Wallpaper

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Jan'20 Crude Oil Report

In the Jan'20 Crude report we look Crude price movement by itself on the technical charts to see the movement that looks possible for 2020. ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'20 US Treasury Report

The US Treasury yields have started to bounce after having fallen sharply over the last one month. Can the yields sustain this bounce or will it reverse lower again? ... Read More

FEBRUARY - 2020
MONDAY		TUESDAY		WEDNESDAY		THURSDAY		FRIDAY
3	AU PMI	4	RBA Mtg	5	IN Svcs PMI	6	AU Trade Bal	7	US NFP
	JP PMI				EU Retail Sales		RBI Mtg		US Unemp
	IN Manf PMI				US Trade Bal				US Avg Hrly Earnings
	CH PMI				US ADP Emp				CA Lab Force
	UK PMI
	EU PMI
	CA PMI
	CN PMI
	US ISM

10	CH CPI	11	JP	12	IN IIP	13	US CPI	14	In Trade Bal
			UK Trade Bal		IN CPI		US Core CPI		IN WPI
			UK GDP		EU Ind Prodn				EU Trade Bal
									US Ind Prodn
									US Cap Util
									US Retail Sales


17	US	18	UK Unemp	19	IN	20	AU Lab Force	21	IN
	JP GDP		US TIC		UK CPI		US Philli Fed		JP CPI
					US PPI				EU CPI
					US Core PPI				US Ex Home Sales
					US Hsg Starts
					CA CPI

24	JP	25	US Cons Conf	26	US New Home Sales	27	EU Biz Climate	28	JP Unemp
	GER IFO	25	US Case Schiller	26		27	US Durable Goods	28	IN GDP
							US GDP		UK Cons Conf
									US Pers. Inc.
									US PCE
									CA GDP

19 Shivaji Jayanti		21 Mahashivratri