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IN CPI, Brent and USDINR: No reason for Rupee weakness?

The Rupee has appreciated in 2019, in line with lower CPI. Now need to see if the current rally in Brent tapers off, leading to lower CPI and stronger Rupee.

Table View | Calendar View | Apr-19 Calendar Story


APRIL - 2019
DATE	TIME		ECONOMIC DATA	UNIT	EXPECTATIONS		PREV	ACTUAL
	GMT	IST			KSHITIJ	MARKET
1-Apr-19	21:30	3:00	AU PMI		-	-	54.0	51.0
	23:50	5:20	JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index		-	13	19	12
	0:30	6:00	JP PMI		48.53	48.9	48.9	49.2
	1:45	7:15	CN PMI		49.87	50.1	49.9	50.8
	7:30	13:00	CH PMI		52.35	53.6	55.4	50.3
	8:00	13:30	EU PMI		-	-	47.6	47.5
	8:30	14:00	UK PMI		51.76	51.2	52.1	55.1
	9:00	14:30	EU Unemp	%	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8
	12:30	18:00	US Retail Sales (MoM)	%	-0.07	0.30	0.83	-0.23
	13:30	19:00	CA PMI		-	-	52.6	50.5
	14:00	19:30	US Manufacturing ISM		53.24	-	54.2	55.3
2-Apr-19	3:30	9:00	RBA Meeting	%	-	1.50	1.50	1.50
	5:00	10:30	IN Manufacturing PMI		53.83	-	54.3	52.6
	6:30	12:00	CH CPI		0.55	0.60	0.62	0.69
	12:30	18:00	US Durable Goods Orders	%	1.86	-1.10	0.11	-1.63
3-Apr-19	0:30	6:00	Australia Trade Balance	A$ Bln	-0.83	3.71	4.35	4.80
	9:00	14:30	EU Retail Sales	%	0.27	0.2	0.9	0.4
	12:15	17:45	US ADP Emp	K	231	184	197	129
4-Apr-19	5:00	10:30	IN Services PMI		53.52	-	52.50	52.00
	6:15	11:45	RBI Repo Rate	%	-	-	6.25	6.00
	6:15	11:45	RBI Reverse Repo Rate	%	-	-	6.00	5.75
	6:15	11:45	RBI MSF	%	-	-	6.50	6.25
5-Apr-19	12:30	18:00	US NFP	K	85	175	33	196
	12:30	18:00	US Unemployment Rate	%		3.8	3.8	3.8
	12:30	18:00	US Avg Hrly Earnings		-	0.30	0.40	0.14
	12:30	18:00	US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees	%	-	-	0.30	0.26
	12:30	18:00	CA Labour Force	K	-	-10.0	55.9	-7.2
10-Apr-19	8:30	14:00	UK Trade Bal	GBP (Bln)	-12.42	-12.5	-14.6	-14.1
	11:45	17:15	ECB Mtg	%	-	0.00	0.00	0.00
	12:30	18:00	US CPI (MoM)	%	0.15	0.3	0.2	0.4
	12:30	18:00	US Core CPI (MoM)	%	0.15	0.2	0.1	0.2
11-Apr-19	1:30	7:00	CN CPI (YoY)		-	2.4	1.5	2.3
	1:30	7:00	CN PPI		-	0.4	0.1	0.4
	12:30	18:00	US PPI	%	0.27	0.3	0.1	0.6
	12:30	18:00	US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)	%	0.22	0.2	0.1	0.3
12-Apr-19	9:00	14:30	EU Ind Prodn (MoM)	%	-0.38	-0.5	1.9	-0.2
	12:00	17:30	IN IIP	%	3.29	-	1.44	0.08
	12:00	17:30	IN CPI		2.86	-	2.57	2.86
15-Apr-19	6:30	12:00	IN WPI	%	2.98	-	2.93	3.18
	12:00	17:30	IN Trade bal	$ Bln	-14.05	-	-9.59	-10.89
	20:00	1:30	US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)	$ Bln	16.70	-18.2	-7.24	51.88
16-Apr-19	8:30	14:00	UK Unemp	%	3.8	3.9	3.9	3.9
	13:15	18:45	US Industrial Production	%	0.26	0.20	0.09	-0.09
	13:15	18:45	US Capacity Utilization	%	78.35	79.2	79.0	78.8
17-Apr-19	2:00	7:30	CN Retail Sales		-	8.3	8.2	8.7
	2:00	7:30	CN GDP		-	6.30	6.4	6.4
	2:00	7:30	CN IIP (YoY)		-	5.6	5.3	8.5
	8:30	14:00	UK CPI Y/Y	%	1.87	2.00	1.81	1.90
	9:00	14:30	EU CPI (YoY)	%	0.72	1.40	1.31	1.30
	9:00	14:30	EU Trade Bal	EUR Bln	-	16.8	17.4	19.5
	12:30	18:00	US Trade Balance	$ Bln	-53.1	-53.5	-51.1	-49.4
	12:30	18:00	CA Inflation Y/Y	%	1.4	1.4	1.5	1.6
18-Apr-19	1:30	7:00	Australia Labour Force	K	15.5	15.2	10.72	25.65
	12:30	18:00	US Retail Sales (MoM)	%	0.14	0.90	-0.28	1.68
	12:30	18:00	US Philifed Index		5.29	11.2	13.7	8.5
19-Apr-19	23:30	5:00	JP CPI	%	0.31	-	0.20	0.50
	12:30	18:00	US Housing Starts	K	1228	1230	1142	1139
22-Apr-19	14:00	19:30	US Existing Home Sales	K	5532	5310	5510	-
23-Apr-19	14:00	19:30	US New Home Sales	K	678	647	667	-
24-Apr-19	1:30	7:00	AU CPI	%	0.52	0.20	0.53	-
	8:00	13:30	GER IFO Business Climate		99.7	99.9	99.6	-
	8:00	13:30	GER IFO Business Situations		103.1	108.7	103.8	-
	8:00	13:30	GER IFO Business Expectations		95.3	94.7	95.6	-
	14:00	19:30	BOC Meeting	%	-	1.75	1.75	-
25-Apr-19	3:00	8:30	BOJ Meeting	%	-	-0.10	-0.10	-
	12:30	18:00	US Durable Goods Orders	%	1.24	0.70	-1.63	-
26-Apr-19	1:30	7:00	AU PPI	%	-	0.4	0.5	-
	12:30	18:00	US GDP	%	1.50	2.20	2.15	-
29-Apr-19	9:00	14:30	EU Biz Climate
29-Apr-19	12:30	18:00	US Personal Income	%

Download 2019 Economic Calendar

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WHAT'S NEW?

Apr'19 Quarterly Forecast

Our Apr'19 Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

Apr'19 EURUSD Report

The directional clearance arrived last month in our Mar'19 report seems to have worked well so far. Will it continue to hold on? Does the macro factors remain the same or have changed? ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Apr'19 USDJPY Report

Crucial factors affecting Dollar Yen seem to indicate an upcoming sharp movement in the coming months, giving some cues to ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Apr'19 Calendar Wallpaper

The Rupee has appreciated in 2019, in line with lower CPI. Now need to see if the current rally in Brent tapers off, leading to lower CPI and stronger Rupee.... Download Apr'19 Wallpaper

WHAT'S NEW?

Apr'19 Crude Oil Report

Brent has risen beyond the resistance mentioned in our Mar'19 report. Now, what next? How far the rally can sustain? Is a reversal on the cards? We analyse the possibilities in our Apr'19 report. ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Mar'19 US Treasury Report

US data has weakened over the past few months and the best that can be expected is that the data stabilizes for the next few months ... Read More

APRIL - 2019
MONDAY		TUESDAY		WEDNESDAY		THURSDAY		FRIDAY
1	AU PMI	2	RBA Mtg	3	AU Trade Bal	4	IN Svcs PMI	5	CN
	JP Tankan		IN Manf PMI		EU Retail Sales		RBI Mtg		US NFP
	JP PMI		CH CPI		US ADP Emp				US Unemp
	CH PMI		US Dur Goods						US Avg Hrly Earnings
	UK PMI								CA Lab Force
	EU PMI
	EU Unemp
	US ISM
	CA PMI
	US ISM
	US Retail Sales

8		9		10	UK Trade Bal	11	US PPI	12	IN IIP
					ECB Mtg		US Core PPI		IN CPI
					US CPI		CN CPI (YoY)		EU Ind Prodn
					US Core CPI		CN PPI

15	In Trade Bal	16	UK Unemp	17	IN	18	AU Lab Force	19	AU,IN,CH,UK,EU,US,CA
	IN WPI		US Ind Prodn		CN GDP		US Philli Fed		JP CPI
	US TIC		US Cap Util		CN Retail Sales		US Retail Sales		US Hsg Starts
					CN IIP
					UK CPI
					EU CPI
					EU Trade Bal
					US Trade Bal
					CA CPI

22	AU,CH,UK,EU,US,CA	23	US New Home Sales	24	AU CPI	25	AU	26	AU PPI
22	US Ex Home Sales	23		24	GER IFO	25	BOJ Mtg		US GDP
					BOC Mtg		US Dur Goods

29	JP	30	JP Unemp
29	EU Biz Climate	30	UK Cons Conf
	US Pers. Inc.		EU GDP
	US PCE		EU Unemp
			US Cons Conf
			US Case Schiller
			CA GDP

06 Gudi Padwa		13 Ram Navami		14 Ambedkar Jayanti			17 Mahavir Jayanti		19 Good Friday