Kshitij Consultancy Services
Economic Calendar


Lower Crude suggests global growth to slow in 2020

The YoY (%) change in Crude is well correlated with global growth. Market consensus is for global growth to pick up in 2020 and 2021. But we expect Crude to dip further in 2020. As such the growth projections are likely to be revised lower which in turn can result in a strong sell-off in the global equities post March 2020.
FEBRUARY - 2020
DATE TIME ECONOMIC DATA UNIT EXPECTATIONS PREV ACTUAL
  GMT IST     KSHITIJ MARKET    
  1:30 7:00 JP PMI Index 48.1 49.3 49.3 48.8
  3:15 8:45 CN PMI Index - 51.0 51.5 51.1
  7:30 13:00 CH PMI Index 49.2 50.3 50.2 47.8
  9:00 14:30 EU PMI Index - 47.8 47.8 47.9
  14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM Index 47.5 48.5 47.2 50.9
  14:00 19:30 CA PMI   - - 50.4 50.6
  10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales % -0.4 -0.5 0.8 -1.6
  13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance $ Bln -45.9 -47.4 -43.7 -48.9
6-Feb-20 0:30 6:00 Australia Trade Balance A$ Bln - 5.60 5.52 5.22
13-Feb-20 13:30 19:00 US Core CPI (MoM) % - 0.2 0.1 0.2
  13:30 19:00 US CPI (MoM) % 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
17-Feb-20 23:50 5:20 JP GDP % - -1.0% 0.5% -1.6%
18-Feb-20 9:30 15:00 UK Unemp % 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
  21:00 2:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec) $ Bln - 31.4 27.1 85.6
19-Feb-20 9:30 15:00 UK CPI Y/Y % 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.7
  13:30 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM) % 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5
  13:30 19:00 US PPI % 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5
  13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts K 1626 1400 1626 1567
  13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y % 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.4
20-Feb-20 1:30 7:00 Australia Labour Force K - 10.0 28.7 13.5
  13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index   - 10.1 17.0 36.7
21-Feb-20 23:50 5:20 JP CPI   - 0.7 0.8 0.7
  10:00 15:30 EU CPI (YoY) % 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.4
  15:00 20:30 US Existing Home Sales K 5503 5480 5540 -
24-Feb-20 9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate   95.3 - 95.9 -
  9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations Index 98.3 - 99.1 -
  9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations Index 91.6 - 92.9 -
25-Feb-20 14:00 19:30 US Case Schiller % - - 2.6 -
  15:00 20:30 US Cons Conf   - - 131.6 -
26-Feb-20 14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales K - - 694.0 -
27-Feb-20 10:00 15:30 EU Biz Climate   - - 102.8 -
  13:30 19:00 US Durable Goods Orders % - - 2.4 -
  13:30 19:00 US GDP % - - 2.1 -
28-Feb-20 23:05 4:35 UK Cons Conf   - - -9.0 -
  23:30 5:00 JP Unemp % - - 2.2 -
  12:00 17:30 IN GDP % - - 4.50% -
  13:30 19:00 CA GDP % - - 0.1 -
  15:00 20:30 US Personal Income % - - 0.2 -
  15:00 20:30 US PCE Price Index M/M % - - 0.2 -
                 
                 
FEBRUARY - 2020
      Expectations    
22:30 4:00 AU PMI Index 48.8 - 48.3 45.4
1:30 7:00 JP PMI Index 48.1 49.3 49.3 48.8
3:15 8:45 CN PMI Index - 51.0 51.5 51.1
5:00 10:30 IN Manf PMI Index 52.7 52.8 52.7 55.3
7:30 13:00 CH PMI Index 49.2 50.3 50.2 47.8
9:00 14:30 EU PMI Index - 47.8 47.8 47.9
9:30 15:00 UK PMI Index 48.9 49.8 49.8 50.0
14:00 19:30 US Manf ISM Index 47.5 48.5 47.2 50.9
14:00 19:30 CA PMI   - - 50.4 50.6
GMT IST 4-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
3:30 9:00 RBA Meeting % - 0.75 0.75 0.75
GMT IST 5-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI Index 54.2 52.4 53.3 55.5
10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales % -0.4 -0.5 0.8 -1.6
13:15 18:45 US ADP Emp K 186 150 199 291
13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance $ Bln -45.9 -47.4 -43.7 -48.9
GMT IST 6-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
0:30 6:00 Au Trade Bal A$ Bln - 5.60 5.52 5.22
6:15 11:45 RBI Repo Rate % - 5.15 5.15 5.15
6:15 11:45 RBI Rev Repo Rate % - 4.90 4.90 4.90
6:15 11:45 RBI MSF % - - 5.40 5.40
GMT IST 7-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
13:30 19:00 US NFP K 627 160 147 225
13:30 19:00 US Unemp Rate % - 3.5 3.5 3.6
13:30 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earn   0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3
13:30 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees % - - 0.1 0.1
13:30 19:00 CA Labour Force K - 16.3 35.2 34.5
GMT IST 14-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
6:30 12:00 IN WPI % 3.06 2.92 2.59 3.10
10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal EUR Bln - 19.1 19.1 22.2
12:30 18:00 IN Trade bal $ Bln -11.5 -11.6 -11.3 -15.2
13:30 19:00 US Retail Sales (MoM) % 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1
14:15 19:45 US Industrial Production % -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3
14:15 19:45 US Capacity Utilization % 76.9 76.9 77.1 76.8
GMT IST 17-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
23:50 5:20 JP GDP % - -1.0% 0.5% -1.6%
GMT IST 18-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
9:30 15:00 UK Unemp % 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
21:00 2:30 US TICS $ Bln - 31.4 27.1 85.6
GMT IST 19-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
9:30 15:00 UK CPI Y/Y % 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.7
13:30 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM) % 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5
13:30 19:00 US PPI % 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5
13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts K 1626 1400 1626 1567
13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y % 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.4
GMT IST 20-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
1:30 7:00 Australia Lab Force K - 10.0 28.7 13.5
13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index   - 10.1 17.0 36.7
GMT IST 21-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
23:50 5:20 JP CPI   - 0.7 0.8 0.7
10:00 15:30 EU CPI (YoY) % 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.4
15:00 20:30 US Ex Home Sales K 5503 5480 5540 -
GMT IST 24-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
9:00 14:30 GER IFO Bus Clim.   95.3 - 95.9 -
9:00 14:30 GER IFO Bus Sitn Index 98.3 - 99.1 -
9:00 14:30 GER IFO Bus Expn Index 91.6 - 92.9 -
GMT IST 25-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
14:00 14:00 US Case Schiller % - - 2.6 -
15:00 15:00 US Cons Conf   - - 131.6 -
GMT IST 26-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
14:00 14:00 US New Home Sales K - - 694.0 -
GMT IST 27-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
10:00 10:00 EU Biz Climate   - - 102.8 -
13:30 13:30 US Dur Goods % - - 2.4 -
13:30 13:30 US GDP % - - 2.1 -
GMT IST 28-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
23:05 23:05 UK Cons Conf   - - -9.0 -
23:30 23:30 JP Unemp % - - 2.2 -
12:00 12:00 IN GDP % - - 4.50% -
13:30 13:30 CA GDP % - - 0.1 -
15:00 15:00 US Pers. Inc. % - - 0.2 -
15:00 15:00 US PCE Price Index % - - 0.2 -
               
               
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