Kshitij Consultancy Services
Economic Calendar


Lower Crude suggests global growth to slow in 2020

The YoY (%) change in Crude is well correlated with global growth. Market consensus is for global growth to pick up in 2020 and 2021. But we expect Crude to dip further in 2020. As such the growth projections are likely to be revised lower which in turn can result in a strong sell-off in the global equities post March 2020.
FEBRUARY - 2020
DATE TIME ECONOMIC DATA UNIT EXPECTATIONS PREV ACTUAL
  GMT IST     KSHITIJ MARKET    
  1:30 7:00 JP PMI Index 48.1 49.3 49.3 48.8
  3:15 8:45 CN PMI Index - 51.0 51.5 51.1
  7:30 13:00 CH PMI Index 49.2 50.3 50.2 47.8
  9:00 14:30 EU PMI Index - 47.8 47.8 47.9
  14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM Index 47.5 48.5 47.2 50.9
  14:00 19:30 CA PMI   - - 50.4 50.6
  10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales % -0.4 -0.5 0.8 -1.6
  13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance $ Bln -45.9 -47.4 -43.7 -48.9
6-Feb-20 0:30 6:00 Australia Trade Balance A$ Bln - 5.60 5.52 5.22
13-Feb-20 13:30 19:00 US Core CPI (MoM) % - 0.2 0.1 0.2
  13:30 19:00 US CPI (MoM) % 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
14-Feb-20 6:30 12:00 IN WPI % 3.06 2.92 2.59 3.10
  10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal EUR Bln - 19.1 19.1 22.2
  12:30 18:00 IN Trade bal $ Bln -11.5 -11.6 -11.3 -15.2
  13:30 19:00 US Retail Sales (MoM) % 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1
  14:15 19:45 US Industrial Production % -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3
  14:15 19:45 US Capacity Utilization % 76.9 76.9 77.1 76.8
17-Feb-20 23:50 5:20 JP GDP % - -1.0% 0.5% -1.6%
18-Feb-20 9:30 15:00 UK Unemp % 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
  21:00 2:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec) $ Bln - - 22.9 -
19-Feb-20 9:30 15:00 UK CPI Y/Y % 1.8 1.7 1.3 -
  13:30 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM) % 0.2 0.2 0.1 -
  13:30 19:00 US PPI % 0.0 0.1 0.1 -
  13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts K 1626 1400 1608 -
  13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y % 2.2 2.2 2.2 -
20-Feb-20 1:30 7:00 Australia Labour Force K - 10.0 28.9 -
  13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index   - 10.1 17.0 -
21-Feb-20 23:50 5:20 JP CPI   - 0.7 0.8 -
  10:00 15:30 EU CPI (YoY) % 2.0 1.4 1.3 -
  15:00 20:30 US Existing Home Sales K 5503 5480 5540 -
FEBRUARY - 2020
      Expectations    
22:30 4:00 AU PMI Index 48.8 - 48.3 45.4
1:30 7:00 JP PMI Index 48.1 49.3 49.3 48.8
3:15 8:45 CN PMI Index - 51.0 51.5 51.1
5:00 10:30 IN Manf PMI Index 52.7 52.8 52.7 55.3
7:30 13:00 CH PMI Index 49.2 50.3 50.2 47.8
9:00 14:30 EU PMI Index - 47.8 47.8 47.9
9:30 15:00 UK PMI Index 48.9 49.8 49.8 50.0
14:00 19:30 US Manf ISM Index 47.5 48.5 47.2 50.9
14:00 19:30 CA PMI   - - 50.4 50.6
GMT IST 4-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
3:30 9:00 RBA Meeting % - 0.75 0.75 0.75
GMT IST 5-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI Index 54.2 52.4 53.3 55.5
10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales % -0.4 -0.5 0.8 -1.6
13:15 18:45 US ADP Emp K 186 150 199 291
13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance $ Bln -45.9 -47.4 -43.7 -48.9
GMT IST 6-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
0:30 6:00 Au Trade Bal A$ Bln - 5.60 5.52 5.22
6:15 11:45 RBI Repo Rate % - 5.15 5.15 5.15
6:15 11:45 RBI Rev Repo Rate % - 4.90 4.90 4.90
6:15 11:45 RBI MSF % - - 5.40 5.40
GMT IST 7-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
13:30 19:00 US NFP K 627 160 147 225
13:30 19:00 US Unemp Rate % - 3.5 3.5 3.6
13:30 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earn   0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3
13:30 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees % - - 0.1 0.1
13:30 19:00 CA Labour Force K - 16.3 35.2 34.5
GMT IST 14-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
6:30 12:00 IN WPI % 3.06 2.92 2.59 3.10
10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal EUR Bln - 19.1 19.1 22.2
12:30 18:00 IN Trade bal $ Bln -11.5 -11.6 -11.3 -15.2
13:30 19:00 US Retail Sales (MoM) % 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1
14:15 19:45 US Industrial Production % -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3
14:15 19:45 US Capacity Utilization % 76.9 76.9 77.1 76.8
GMT IST 17-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
23:50 5:20 JP GDP % - -1.0% 0.5% -1.6%
GMT IST 18-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
9:30 15:00 UK Unemp % 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
21:00 2:30 US TICS $ Bln - - 22.9 -
GMT IST 19-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
9:30 15:00 UK CPI Y/Y % 1.8 1.7 1.3 -
13:30 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM) % 0.2 0.2 0.1 -
13:30 19:00 US PPI % 0.0 0.1 0.1 -
13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts K 1626 1400 1608 -
13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y % 2.2 2.2 2.2 -
GMT IST 20-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
1:30 7:00 Australia Labour Force K - 10.0 28.9 -
13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index   - 10.1 17.0 -
GMT IST 21-Feb-20   Kshitij Market Prev Actual
23:50 5:20 JP CPI   - 0.7 0.8 -
10:00 15:30 EU CPI (YoY) % 2.0 1.4 1.3 -
15:00 20:30 US Existing Home Sales K 5503 5480 5540 -
               
               
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