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Increasing Reliability: Weather forecasts and KSHITIJ.COM forecasts

Contrary to popular belief that weather forecasts are notoriously unreliable, they have actually become 72% reliable over the last 35 years. Similarly, contrary to the popular notion that currencies canot be predicted, the reliability of KSHITIJ.COM Dollar-Rupee forecast is now 71%. And this has been achieved in 11 years, as compared to the 35 years taken for increase in reliability of weather forecasts.

Table View | Calendar View | October-18 Calendar Story


OCTOBER - 2018
DATE	TIME		ECONOMIC DATA	UNIT	EXPECTATIONS		PREV	ACTUAL
	GMT	IST			KSHITIJ	MARKET
1-Oct-18	22:30	4:00	AU PMI		56.83	-	56.7	59.0
	23:50	5:20	JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index		-	22	21	19
	0:30	6:00	JP PMI		52.87	52.9	52.9	52.5
	5:00	10:30	IN Manufacturing PMI		51.83	-	51.7	52.2
	7:30	13:00	CH PMI		63.82	62.6	64.8	59.7
	8:00	13:30	EU PMI		-	-	53.3	53.2
	8:30	14:00	UK PMI		52.97	52.6	53.0	53.8
	9:00	14:30	EU Unemp	%	8.2	8.1	8.2	8.1
	13:30	19:00	CA PMI		57.17	-	56.80	54.8
	14:00	19:30	US Manufacturing ISM		63.08	60.1	61.3	59.8
2-Oct-18	4:30	10:00	RBA Meeting	%	-	1.50	1.50	1.50
3-Oct-18	9:00	14:30	EU Retail Sales	%	0.00	0.2	-0.6	-0.2
	12:15	17:45	US ADP Emp	K	125	187	168	230
4-Oct-18	0:30	6:00	Australia Trade Balance	A$ Bln	0.90	1.45	1.55	1.60
	5:00	10:30	IN Services PMI		53.09	-	51.50	50.90
5-Oct-18	7:15	12:45	CH CPI		-	-	1.19	0.99
	9:00	14:30	RBI Repo Rate	%	-	-	6.50	6.50
	9:00	14:30	RBI Reverse Repo Rate	%	-	-	6.25	6.25
	9:00	14:30	RBI MSF	%	-	-	6.75	6.75
	12:30	18:00	US NFP	K	153.25	185	270	134
	12:30	18:00	US Unemployment Rate	%	-	3.8	3.9	3.7
	12:30	18:00	US Average Hourly Earnings m/m	%	-	0.30	0.33	0.29
	12:30	18:00	US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees	%	-	-	0.35	0.26
	12:30	18:00	US Trade Balance	$ Bln	-51.0	-52.3	-50.0	-53.2
	12:30	18:00	CA Labour Force	K	-	25.0	-51.6	63.3
10-Oct-18	8:30	14:00	UK Trade Bal	GBP (Bln)	-10.56	-10.9	-10.4	-11.2
	12:30	18:00	US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)	%	0.33	0.2	-0.1	0.2
	12:30	18:00	US PPI	%	0.17	0.2	-0.1	0.2
11-Oct-18	12:30	18:00	US CPI (MoM)	%	0.35	0.2	0.2	0.1
	12:30	18:00	US Core CPI (MoM)	%	0.17	0.2	0.1	0.1
12-Oct-18	9:00	14:30	EU Ind Prodn (MoM)	%	0.65	0.4	-0.7	1.0
	12:00	17:30	IN IIP	%	5.31	-	6.53	4.34
	12:00	17:30	IN CPI		4.02	-	3.69	3.77
15-Oct-18	5:30	11:00	IN Trade bal	$ Bln	-13.44	-	-17.40	-13.98
	6:30	12:00	IN WPI	%	4.77	-	4.53	5.13
	12:30	18:00	US Retail Sales (MoM)	%	0.77	0.70	0.02	0.37
16-Oct-18	1:30	7:00	CN CPI (YoY)		-	2.5	2.3	2.5
	1:30	7:00	CN PPI		2.55	3.7	4.1	3.6
	8:30	14:00	UK Unemp	%	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.0
	9:00	14:30	EU Trade Bal	EUR Bln	-	15.0	12.6	16.6
	13:15	18:45	US Industrial Production	%	0.21	0.2	0.37	0.28
	13:15	18:45	US Capacity Utilization	%	78.27	78.2	78.1	78.1
	20:00	1:30	US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)	$ Bln	-20.86	-	66.66	131.82
17-Oct-18	8:30	14:00	UK CPI Y/Y	%	2.42	2.60	2.40	2.21
	9:00	14:30	EU CPI (YoY)	%	1.89	2.10	2.03	2.07
	12:30	18:00	US Housing Starts	K	1295	1210	1268	1201
18-Oct-18	1:30	7:00	Australia Labour Force	K	44.8	15.2	44.60	5.60
	12:30	18:00	US Philifed Index		29.48	21	22.90	22.20
19-Oct-18	23:30	5:00	JP CPI	%	1.40	1.00	1.30	1.19
	2:00	7:30	CN GDP		-	6.60	6.7	6.5
	5:30	11:00	CN Retail Sales		-	9.0	9.0	9.2
	5:30	11:00	CN IIP (YoY)		-	6.0	6.1	5.8
	12:30	18:00	CA Inflation Y/Y	%	2.6	2.9	2.8	2.2
	14:00	19:30	US Existing Home Sales	K	5373	5310	5340	5150
24-Oct-18	14:00	19:30	US New Home Sales	K	666	630	629	-
	14:00	19:30	BOC Meeting	%	-	1.75	1.50	-
25-Oct-18	8:00	13:30	GER IFO Business Climate		103.4	103.2	103.7	-
	8:00	13:30	GER IFO Business Situations		106.6	106.0	106.4	-
	8:00	13:30	GER IFO Business Expectations		101.6	100.3	101.0	-
	11:45	17:15	ECB Mtg	%	0.50	0.00	0.00	-
	12:30	18:00	US Durable Goods Orders	%	2.45	-1.10	4.45	-
26-Oct-18	12:30	18:00	US GDP	%	3.68	3.30	4.10	-
29-Oct-18	12:30	18:00	US Personal Income	%	0.27	0.40	0.30	0.34
29-Oct-18	12:30	18:00	US PCE Price Index M/M	%	1.75	0.1	0.17	0.04

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Shyam Group of Companies
Bengaluru

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MR RAVIN MODY
Marico Ltd.
Mumbai

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MR SURESH CHETTIAR
Lupin Ltd.
Mumbai

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OCTOBER - 2018
MONDAY		TUESDAY		WEDNESDAY		THURSDAY		FRIDAY
1	AU, CN	2	CN, IN	3	CN, EU	4	CN	5	CN
	AU PMI		RBA Mtg		EU Retail Sales	4	AU Trade Bal		RBI Mtg
	JP PMI				US ADP Emp		IN Svcs PMI		CH CPI
	JP Tankan								US NFP
	CN PMI								US Unemp
	IN Manf PMI								US Avg Hrly Earnings
	CH PMI								US Trade Bal
	UK PMI								CA Lab Force
	EU PMI
	EU Unemp
	CA PMI
	US ISM

8	JP, US, CA	9		10	UK Trade Bal	11	US Core CPI	12	IN IIP
					US Core PPI		US CPI		IN CPI
					US PPI				EU Ind Prodn


15	In Trade Bal	16	CN CPI (YoY)	17	UK CPI	18	IN	19	CN Retail Sales
	IN WPI		CN PPI		EU CPI		AU Lab Force		CN IIP
	US Retail Sales		UK Unemp		US Hsg Starts		US Philli Fed		CN GDP
			EU Trade Bal						JP CPI
			US Ind Prodn						US Ex Home Sales
			US Cap Util						CA CPI
			US TIC

22		23		24	US New Home Sales	25	GER IFO	26	US GDP
					BOC Mtg		ECB Mtg
							US Durable Goods

29	US Pers. Inc.	30	EU GDP	31	AU CPI
29	US PCE	30	EU Biz Climate	31	BOJ Mtg
			US Cons Conf		JP Unemp
			US Case Schiller		UK Cons Conf
					US ADP Emp
					EU Unemp