Kshitij Crude Oil Reports - Kshitij.com
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Crude Oil Reports

Overview

The Kshitij Crude Oil Report takes a deep look at Technical and Fundamental Factors driving Global Crude Oil prices, and provides a macro view for the next 2 to 4 quarters.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:
  • Technical Price Charts of Brent, WTI, Crude/Gold, Brent-WTI spread
  • Backwardation / Contango in Crude futures
  • Changes of Positioning in Crude Derivatives (CFTC)
  • Global Crude Demand-Supply Balance (as per OPEC, EIA & IEA)
  • Change in US Crude Inventories & Global Production Levels
We have also introduced a “Data View” section for our readers to stay updated on vital data points from the world of Crude Oil.
Crude Report

Aug ' 18 Crude Report

OPEC's supply increase agreement (June 22nd) hasn't been able to take Brent below 70. Is Crude now going to attempt new highs ($90?) this year? Or, will it see a correction below $70? We analyze a crucial technical break and delve into its historical validity to find some answers. Correlation trends between Crude and global GDP also throw up an interesting conclusion. This time, we also forecast the timing and nature of the next 'big move' in Crude. Monthly & Quarterly projections included.

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Crude Report

June ' 18 Crude Report

The Brent-WTI spread recently touched multi-year highs. What does this mean for Crude? Will the downturn in prices continue? We analyze the above questions in our June ’18 Crude report. We also introduce a Fiscal Breakeven Price index for major OPEC suppliers and an index for tracking Backwardation in Crude futures. The usability of EIA’s demand minus supply forecasts for predicting Crude price trends is also examined. Monthly price projections included.

Crude Report

May ' 18 Crude Report

In the backdrop of Brent and WTI both achieving new highs, we explore when our predicted bearish turn could happen. For the first time, we explore EIA’s Demand-Supply balance forecasts and also introduce a new Data View Section containing Production, Demand and Inventory data. Our projections for Dec ’18 are significantly revised.

Crude Report

March ' 18 Crude Report

We examine the emergence of a new support trendline on Crude charts and try to explore if it could be broken. We also revisit Backwardation charts and the derivatives’ positioning analysis to see if they provide any cues for possible bearishness. Also included is an interesting study on the “real price of Brent”.

Crude Report

February ' 18 Crude Report

We look at a combination of channel trendlines and moving averages to predict immediate upside resistances, medium term downside supports and long term targets. A counterintuitive, yet strong pattern followed by US Crude stocks during Mar-Sep is analyzed. We also predict the Global Demand – Supply Balance and its impact on prices this year corresponding to 2 likely scenarios: 1) OPEC maintaining last year’s supply levels and 2) OPEC surpassing those levels.

Crude Report

January ' 18 Crude Report

In our first Crude report for the year, we make predictions for the entire year based on quarterly and weekly technical charts. We study the onset of Backwardation since Sep ‘17 by looking at the spread between 1 and 6 month futures. We also chart WTI’s responsiveness to 2 factors: 1) derivatives’ positioning of money managers and 2) change in global demand-supply balance in the preceding quarter.