Kshitij Crude Oil Forecast

Crude Oil Forecast

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Overview
The Kshitij Crude Oil Forecast takes a deep look at Technical and Fundamental Factors driving Global Crude Oil prices, and provides a macro view for the next 2 to 4 quarters.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:

Technical Price Charts of Brent, WTI, Crude/Gold, Brent-WTI spread
Backwardation / Contango in Crude futures
Changes of Positioning in Crude Derivatives (CFTC)
Global Crude Demand-Supply Balance (as per OPEC, EIA & IEA)
Change in US Crude Inventories & Global Production Levels
We have also introduced a “Data View” section for our readers to stay updated on vital data points from the world of Crude Oil.

June ' 23 Crude Report

Brent has been ranged since Dec-22 within $90-70 region. OPEC production cut has been implemented this month and the impact can be assessed in the next OPEC meeting scheduled on 4th June 2023.Possibility of economic slowdown could weigh on the crude prices. Other factors closely correlated to crude prices are discussed in the June23 report in detail

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May ' 23 Crude Report

The Net long short position ratio has risen strongly but has not reflected in a rise in crude prices so far. Will crude prices continue to remain lower while the net position is up? Or will sustained sideways consolidation bring down the long position in the market?

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Apr ' 23 Crude Report

The markets have been strongly short positioned with continued sharp fall in crude prices seen in March-23. It would be crucial to see if the positioning turn towards the long in the coming months or continues to remain at low levels. The April-23 monthly crude report discusses the future path ahead in detail.

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Mar ' 23 Crude Report

Crude has been in a sideways consolidation but it would be important to know how long it would continue to remain ranged. Volatility is likely to remain low in Mar-23. Detailed analysis of the energy complex and other important factors are laid out in the Mar-23 report.

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Feb ' 23 Crude Report

Crude looks stuck within a specific range and needs to give directional clarity on a break on either side of the range. Till then we might have to take cues for near term movement from other commodity-metals, energy-commodities and from fundamental economic scenario. OPEC+ meeting today is crucial to watch for any cues on policy review. The proposed price cap by the EU on Russian Petroleum products and its impact would be crucial to watch this week. Overall if all factors together can keep Brent ranged or push it towards a specific direction will drive the next course of movement for the oil.

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Jan ' 23 Crude Report

Brent tested $75 as expected and has risen from there. Important factors to watch would be Russia's response to G7 price cap on crude in Jan'23 and impact of the planned ban on Russian petroleum products by Europe to be implemented from Feb-23. In addition, the proposed plan of repurchase of oil for filling up of US Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the next couple of quarters if plays out well could eventually help crude prices to rise in the longer run.

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Dec ' 22 Crude Report

December is a crucial month for Crude oil and energy sector. With G7 price cap and EU embargo on Russian oil to kick off from 5th December and OPEC meeting on 4th December, crude could remain volatile in the first half of December. Supply constraints, rising covid cases in China, overall global economic slowdown could have major impact on crude.

WHAT'S NEW?

May'23 Monthly Forecast

Our May'23 Monthly Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

May '23 EURUSD Report

EURINR has been holding below resistance near 90.60 and finding it difficult to break above 90.60. Will the pair hold and decline eventually giving more weightage to the resistance near 90.60? Or can the sideways movement be considered as a temporary pause post which we may see a sharp break out on the upside? ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

June'23 Crude Oil Report

WHAT'S NEW?

June'23 US Treasury Report

In our Apr-23 report (27-Mar-23, US10Yr @ 3.44%) we had said that (A) the FED’s 2% inflation target is an arbitrary number which was possibly based on the benign post-1980 world of economic co-operation and declining inflation. It is good to see our view being .... Read More

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