Kshitij Crude Oil Forecast - Kshitij.com
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Crude Oil Forecast
Overview
The Kshitij Crude Oil Forecast takes a deep look at Technical and Fundamental Factors driving Global Crude Oil prices, and provides a macro view for the next 2 to 4 quarters.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:
  • Technical Price Charts of Brent, WTI, Crude/Gold, Brent-WTI spread
  • Backwardation / Contango in Crude futures
  • Changes of Positioning in Crude Derivatives (CFTC)
  • Global Crude Demand-Supply Balance (as per OPEC, EIA & IEA)
  • Change in US Crude Inventories & Global Production Levels
We have also introduced a “Data View” section for our readers to stay updated on vital data points from the world of Crude Oil.
Crude Report

February ' 24 Crude Report

At Kshitij, we had been expecting Brent prices to move up sharply while above $70 over the last 3-months but the price showed low volatility and has been continuing to trade within $70-90 region over the last few months. With uncertainty and concerns looming in the Middle East, there could be chances of supply disruptions in future.

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Crude Report

January ' 24 Crude Report

Crude has been witnessing volatility but within a fixed range of $90-70 for the last couple of months. Whether it would continue to trade within the mentioned range or break on either side is to be seen. Any signs of bullishness for the long term will come in on a sustained or confirmed break above $90.

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Crude Report

December ' 23 Crude Report

Global oil demand-supply Gap is projected to be stable to slightly bearish for the next 5-quarters (by EIA) but the forecast remain at elevated levels above -0.50. Will this pull up crude prices in 2024?

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Crude Report

November ' 23 Crude Report

Brent crude has been largely seen to range below $96/95 over the last couple of months. With geopolitical tensions around Israel-Hamas group, crude prices have seen some volatility in Oct-23. It would be important to see how the war turns out in the coming months.

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Crude Report

October ' 23 Crude Report

Brent has risen sharply contrary to our expectation of seeing a fall from $90. Will it sustain trade above $90?

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Crude Report

September ' 23 Crude Report

Brent has been in a broad sideways range of $70-90 for quite some months now and has recently moved up towards the upper end of the range. Will it hold below $90 or can it break on the upside?

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Crude Report

August ' 23 Crude Report

Crude prices have moved up over the last couple of months from support at $70. Will it continue to move up? Market positioning and sentiment looks bullish just now but could it take crude prices significanty higher than current levels?

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Crude Report

July ' 23 Crude Report

Crude prices have been ranged within the broad $70-90 zone since Dec-22 and has recently narrowed down to $80-70 over the last few weeks. Can the range continue through the rest of the year? Or could volatility seep in and bring in sharp movement from current consolidative range?

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Crude Report

June ' 23 Crude Report

Brent has been ranged since Dec-22 within $90-70 region. OPEC production cut has been implemented this month and the impact can be assessed in the next OPEC meeting scheduled on 4th June 2023.Possibility of economic slowdown could weigh on the crude prices. Other factors closely correlated to crude prices are discussed in the June23 report in detail

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Crude Report

May ' 23 Crude Report

The Net long short position ratio has risen strongly but has not reflected in a rise in crude prices so far. Will crude prices continue to remain lower while the net position is up? Or will sustained sideways consolidation bring down the long position in the market?

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Crude Report

Apr ' 23 Crude Report

The markets have been strongly short positioned with continued sharp fall in crude prices seen in March-23. It would be crucial to see if the positioning turn towards the long in the coming months or continues to remain at low levels. The April-23 monthly crude report discusses the future path ahead in detail.

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Crude Report

Mar ' 23 Crude Report

Crude has been in a sideways consolidation but it would be important to know how long it would continue to remain ranged. Volatility is likely to remain low in Mar-23. Detailed analysis of the energy complex and other important factors are laid out in the Mar-23 report.

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Crude Report

Feb ' 23 Crude Report

Crude looks stuck within a specific range and needs to give directional clarity on a break on either side of the range. Till then we might have to take cues for near term movement from other commodity-metals, energy-commodities and from fundamental economic scenario. OPEC+ meeting today is crucial to watch for any cues on policy review. The proposed price cap by the EU on Russian Petroleum products and its impact would be crucial to watch this week. Overall if all factors together can keep Brent ranged or push it towards a specific direction will drive the next course of movement for the oil.

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Crude Report

Jan ' 23 Crude Report

Brent tested $75 as expected and has risen from there. Important factors to watch would be Russia's response to G7 price cap on crude in Jan'23 and impact of the planned ban on Russian petroleum products by Europe to be implemented from Feb-23. In addition, the proposed plan of repurchase of oil for filling up of US Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the next couple of quarters if plays out well could eventually help crude prices to rise in the longer run.

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Crude Report

Dec ' 22 Crude Report

December is a crucial month for Crude oil and energy sector. With G7 price cap and EU embargo on Russian oil to kick off from 5th December and OPEC meeting on 4th December, crude could remain volatile in the first half of December. Supply constraints, rising covid cases in China, overall global economic slowdown could have major impact on crude.



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