Kshitij Crude Oil Forecast - Kshitij.com
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Crude Oil Forecast
Overview
The Kshitij Crude Oil Forecast takes a deep look at Technical and Fundamental Factors driving Global Crude Oil prices, and provides a macro view for the next 2 to 4 quarters.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:
  • Technical Price Charts of Brent, WTI, Crude/Gold, Brent-WTI spread
  • Backwardation / Contango in Crude futures
  • Changes of Positioning in Crude Derivatives (CFTC)
  • Global Crude Demand-Supply Balance (as per OPEC, EIA & IEA)
  • Change in US Crude Inventories & Global Production Levels
We have also introduced a “Data View” section for our readers to stay updated on vital data points from the world of Crude Oil.
Crude Report

Dec ' 19 Crude Report

Crude prices continued to remain below 75 through 2019. With weak global economic scenario and OPEC and non-OPEC countries focusing on production cuts, we analyse the broad view for Crude in 2020. OPEC decision on production cuts and US-China trade deal would be crucial events for Crude in the coming year.

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Crude Report

Oct ' 19 Crude Report

Demand-Supply Gap is projected to fall over this quarter and the next 2-quarters before rising back from there according to the EIA's latest monthly report. OPEC's December meet would be important to watch. While US-China trade tensions continue amidst tensions of attacks in Saudi Arabia oil facilities, we lay out projections for Crude in the October report with overall long term view remaining intact.

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Crude Report

Sep ' 19 Crude Report

Crude oil has been trading volatile in a broad sideways range. Will this range continue to remain intact or are we nearing a breakout? We analyse the possibilities in this month's report.

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Crude Report

July ' 19 Crude Report

In the July'19 report we emphasise on the broad outlook on the US Shale oil growth rate taking into the factors of EIA's projected growth in production and historical data of Rig Counts. While the broad view remains the same, we revise our monthly forecasts slightly higher. We look at factors that could impact in the next few weeks while our long term view for Crude remains unchanged.

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Crude Report

June ' 19 Crude Report

Crude prices have fallen well, in line with our expectations in May. The current June report analyses the possible price action over the next few months. The OPEC+ meeting due at the end of this month will be something to watch for, for clarity on supply cuts by major producers.

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Crude Report

May ' 19 Crude Report

May'19 report projects a mixed view for Crude price as the technical charts on one hand indicate room for a corrective dip over the coming weeks while the fundamentals and global scenario indicates possible room on the upside going forward. We analyse demand-supply situation, and possible production capability of Saudi Arabia to cater to the supply glut due to Iran and Venezuela.

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Crude Report

Apr ' 19 Crude Report

Brent has risen beyond the resistance mentioned in our Mar'19 report. Now, what next? How far the rally can sustain? Is a reversal on the cards? We analyse the possibilities in our Apr'19 report.

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Crude Report

Mar ' 19 Crude Report

Brent crude has been rising well from $53.8 in Dec'18 to current levels. In the March'19 report, we analyse chances of a further rise towards $71 and lay out revised quarterly Brent projections for 2019.

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Crude Report

Feb ' 19 Crude Report

Brent crude has broken above our expected resistance at $65 in Feb'19. We have reviewed our earlier projections in the Feb'19 report and analyse if the rise above $65 could sustain in the longer run or could it come off without moving up further from here.

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Crude Report

Jan ' 19 Crude Report

Crude prices are trading at crucial levels just now. Would it move higher back towards $70-80 or would it resume its downtrend targting $50-40? This we analyse in the Jan'19 report projecting possible movement in 2019.

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Crude Report

Dec ' 18 Crude Report

Brent continued to decline in Nov'18. Is there more room on the downside or is the bottom made for now? Getting into 2019, will we see a rise in Crude prices? This, we analyse in the Dec'18 report taking cues from a mix of technical and fundamental data. The report also includes projection estimates of Brent for 2019, considering EIA and Kshitij forecasts

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Crude Report

Oct ' 18 Crude Report

Brent has fallen from 86.74 to 76 in Oct. How much further could it fall in 2018? Will it rise to 85 again? Will 2019 be bearish or will Brent breach the 90 mark. We analyze the above in our Oct monthly forecast report and update our projections for 2019. Also included is a new study on the utility of EIA's Demand-Supply Balance forecasts.

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Crude Report

Sep ' 18 Crude Report

With our mix of near term and long term charts, we forecast if the upside might be capped for Brent in 2019 and beyond. We also analyze long term data (since 1980s) on the Global Demand-Supply Gap and Speculation Volatility (Crude futures) to form a basic understanding on how they might have historically impacted prices. A numerical estimate of price change brought about by a change in the Demand-Supply Gap by 0.1 mb/d is calculated. The updated data annexure contains interesting charts on global production, demand, inventory and reserves levels. Monthly projections till Aug '19 included.

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Crude Report

Aug ' 18 Crude Report

OPEC's supply increase agreement (June 22nd) hasn't been able to take Brent below 70. Is Crude now going to attempt new highs ($90?) this year? Or, will it see a correction below $70? We analyze a crucial technical break and delve into its historical validity to find some answers. Correlation trends between Crude and global GDP also throw up an interesting conclusion. This time, we also forecast the timing and nature of the next 'big move' in Crude. Monthly & Quarterly projections included.

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Crude Report

June ' 18 Crude Report

The Brent-WTI spread recently touched multi-year highs. What does this mean for Crude? Will the downturn in prices continue? We analyze the above questions in our June ’18 Crude report. We also introduce a Fiscal Breakeven Price index for major OPEC suppliers and an index for tracking Backwardation in Crude futures. The usability of EIA’s demand minus supply forecasts for predicting Crude price trends is also examined. Monthly price projections included.

Crude Report

May ' 18 Crude Report

In the backdrop of Brent and WTI both achieving new highs, we explore when our predicted bearish turn could happen. For the first time, we explore EIA’s Demand-Supply balance forecasts and also introduce a new Data View Section containing Production, Demand and Inventory data. Our projections for Dec ’18 are significantly revised.

Crude Report

March ' 18 Crude Report

We examine the emergence of a new support trendline on Crude charts and try to explore if it could be broken. We also revisit Backwardation charts and the derivatives’ positioning analysis to see if they provide any cues for possible bearishness. Also included is an interesting study on the “real price of Brent”.

Crude Report

February ' 18 Crude Report

We look at a combination of channel trendlines and moving averages to predict immediate upside resistances, medium term downside supports and long term targets. A counterintuitive, yet strong pattern followed by US Crude stocks during Mar-Sep is analyzed. We also predict the Global Demand – Supply Balance and its impact on prices this year corresponding to 2 likely scenarios: 1) OPEC maintaining last year’s supply levels and 2) OPEC surpassing those levels.

Crude Report

January ' 18 Crude Report

In our first Crude report for the year, we make predictions for the entire year based on quarterly and weekly technical charts. We study the onset of Backwardation since Sep ‘17 by looking at the spread between 1 and 6 month futures. We also chart WTI’s responsiveness to 2 factors: 1) derivatives’ positioning of money managers and 2) change in global demand-supply balance in the preceding quarter.

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