Kshitij Dollar-Yen Forecast - Kshitij.com
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Dollar-Yen Forecast
USDJPY Report
Overview
The Kshitij Dollar-Yen Report takes into consideration the impact of various variables across different asset classes both Technical and Fundamental to give a comprehensive macro view for the next 1-3 quarters.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:
  • Technical Price Charts of Dollar-Yen, and Nikkei
  • Price movements in major commodities
  • Price charts of Bond yields, yield differentials
  • Fundamental and macro-economic factors
USDJPY July'25 Report

July ' 25 Yen Report

In our 07-Jun-25 report (USDJPY 144.90), we expected the pair to extend the fall to 138-136 initially before ascending towards 150 in the longer run. Contrary to expectation, the pair rose to a high of 148.02 from 142.80 itself, followed by a fall to 142.68 before eventually rising again. The BOJ kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50% in its Jun-25 MPC meeting. Tokyo and Washington agreed to extend trade talks after failing to achieve a breakthrough during discussions on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Canada.

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USDJPY June'25 Report

June ' 25 Yen Report

In our 10-May-25 report (USDJPY 145.37), we expected the resistance near 147 to hold and initiate fall towards 140.00-136.50 before eventually turning bullish towards 160 in the long run. The pair initially surpassed the level of 147, tested 148.65 on 12-May-25 before turning lower, thereby falling to the low of 142.39 on 03-June-25.

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USDJPY May'25 Report

May ' 25 Yen Report

In our 05-Apr-25 report (USDJPY 146.90), a rise to 150-151 was expected before fall to 140 by Jul-Sep’25 qtr. As it turns out, the pair halted the rise at 148.29 itself on 09-Apr and started coming down. The fall met our downside target much sooner than anticipated as a low of 139.89 was seen on 22-Apr itself. The BOJ kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50% in its May-25 meeting.

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USDJPY Apr'25 Report

Apr ' 25 Yen Report

In our 11-Mar-25 report (USDJPY 147.04), we anticipated limited downside on the USDJPY to 145 and expected a bounce back in the coming months. In line with expectations, a sharp fall to 144.55 was witnessed before it eventually recovered back from there. BOJ kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50% in the Mar-25 meeting. US President Doland Trump imposed 24% tariffs on imports from Japan.

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USDJPY Mar'25 Report

Mar ' 25 Yen Report

In our 08-Feb-25 report (USDJPY 152.01), we anticipated that the USDJPY can remain ranged within 150-160 region in the coming months until further clarity. Our view turned out to be wrong as USDJPY has slipped below 150 to ae low of 146.55 so far due to the sharp fall in the Dollar Index below 106.

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USDJPY Feb'25 Report

Feb ' 25 Yen Report

In our 09-Jan-25 report (USDJPY 158.10), we mentioned that the USDJPY can rise towards 162 or 165 before eventually turning lower in the longer run. In actuality, USDJPY peaked at 158.88 itself and started coming off. The BOJ went ahead with the 25-bps rate hike, thereby bringing the policy rate up to 0.50%.

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USDJPY Jan'25 Report

Jan ' 25 Yen Report

In our 10-Dec-24 report (USDJPY 151.40), we mentioned that a narrow range of 150-156 and a broad range of 156-146.50 can hold in the coming months. In actuality, the range of 150-156 held for a while, until recently when a break past 156 was seen which led the pair to test 158.55 on 08-Jan-25. The FED and ECB both lowered the key interest rates by 25 bps each, thereby bringing the interest rates to 3.15% and 4.50% respectively. The BOJ kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.25%.



July '25 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast
WHAT'S NEW?
July '25 Quarterly Forecast
Our July '25 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
July'25 EURUSD Report
WHAT'S NEW?
July'25 EURUSD Report
The Dollar Index has high chances of rebounding from support at 96, in which case, it could limit the immediate upside for Euro and lead to a decline in the coming months ...Read More
July'25 USDJPY Report
WHAT'S NEW?
July'25 USDJPY Report
In our 07-Jun-25 report (USDJPY 144.90), we expected the pair to extend the fall to 138-136 initially before ascending towards 150 in the longer run. Contrary to expectation, the pair ... Read More
July'25 GOI Report
WHAT'S NEW?
July'25 GOI Report
In our 05-Jun-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.25%) we said that the 10Yr GOI downside is limited to 6.0% from where it can rise towards 6.5%. In line with that, although the 10Yr GOI dipped ... Read More
August'25 Crude Oil Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Aug'25 Crude Oil Report
Our August 2025 Crude Oil Monthly Report covers updates on OPEC+ production, inventory changes and cross-commodity correlations. Our analysis includes both technical setups and broader market indicators shaping the near-term outlook for Brent. ... Read More
Aug '25 US Treasury Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Aug '25 US Treasury Report
In our last report (28-Jun-25, UST10Yr 4.28%) we had highlighted the stagflation dilemma faced by the US FED (which still remains); had said that the Inflation Expectation could rise (it did indeed rise); that Inflation is .... Read More
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