Kshitij Dollar-Yen Forecast - Kshitij.com
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Dollar-Yen Forecast
USDJPY Report
Overview
The Kshitij Dollar-Yen Report takes into consideration the impact of various variables across different asset classes both Technical and Fundamental to give a comprehensive macro view for the next 1-3 quarters.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:
  • Technical Price Charts of Dollar-Yen, and Nikkei
  • Price movements in major commodities
  • Price charts of Bond yields, yield differentials
  • Fundamental and macro-economic factors
USDJPY October'25 Report

October ' 25 Yen Report

In our 12-Sep-25 report (USDJPY 147.96), we expected the USDJPY to limit the downside to 144 and ascend towards 155-158 in the coming months. In line with our view, USDJPY limited the downside to 145.59 (17-Sep-25) and has observed the high of 153 so far. Sanae Takaichi who supports looser fiscal and monetary policy, won as Japan’s first female Prime Minister on 04-Oct-25. BOJ kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50% in its Oct-25 meeting.

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USDJPY September'25 Report

September ' 25 Yen Report

In our 08-Aug-25 report (USDJPY 147.24), we expected the USDJPY to initially fall to 145-144, followed by a consolidation between 144-152 till Feb-26 before eventually ascending towards 155. In actuality, the pair limited the downside to 146.22 and remained ranged within 146-149 region for the entire month. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned on 07-Sep after losing majority in both houses of the parliament.

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USDJPY August'25 Report

August ' 25 Yen Report

In our 09-Jul-25 report (USDJPY 146.81), an initial rise to 150-152 was expected, followed by a fall to 144.50-143.50 before eventually rallying towards 155 in the long term. As anticipated, the USDJPY observed the high of 150.92 on 01-Aug before reversing lower. President Donald Trump announced 15% tariffs on auto imports from Japan in exchange for a $550 billion package of U.S. bound investment and loans.

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USDJPY July'25 Report

July ' 25 Yen Report

In our 07-Jun-25 report (USDJPY 144.90), we expected the pair to extend the fall to 138-136 initially before ascending towards 150 in the longer run. Contrary to expectation, the pair rose to a high of 148.02 from 142.80 itself, followed by a fall to 142.68 before eventually rising again. The BOJ kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50% in its Jun-25 MPC meeting. Tokyo and Washington agreed to extend trade talks after failing to achieve a breakthrough during discussions on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Canada.

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USDJPY June'25 Report

June ' 25 Yen Report

In our 10-May-25 report (USDJPY 145.37), we expected the resistance near 147 to hold and initiate fall towards 140.00-136.50 before eventually turning bullish towards 160 in the long run. The pair initially surpassed the level of 147, tested 148.65 on 12-May-25 before turning lower, thereby falling to the low of 142.39 on 03-June-25.

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USDJPY May'25 Report

May ' 25 Yen Report

In our 05-Apr-25 report (USDJPY 146.90), a rise to 150-151 was expected before fall to 140 by Jul-Sep’25 qtr. As it turns out, the pair halted the rise at 148.29 itself on 09-Apr and started coming down. The fall met our downside target much sooner than anticipated as a low of 139.89 was seen on 22-Apr itself. The BOJ kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50% in its May-25 meeting.

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USDJPY Apr'25 Report

Apr ' 25 Yen Report

In our 11-Mar-25 report (USDJPY 147.04), we anticipated limited downside on the USDJPY to 145 and expected a bounce back in the coming months. In line with expectations, a sharp fall to 144.55 was witnessed before it eventually recovered back from there. BOJ kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50% in the Mar-25 meeting. US President Doland Trump imposed 24% tariffs on imports from Japan.

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USDJPY Mar'25 Report

Mar ' 25 Yen Report

In our 08-Feb-25 report (USDJPY 152.01), we anticipated that the USDJPY can remain ranged within 150-160 region in the coming months until further clarity. Our view turned out to be wrong as USDJPY has slipped below 150 to ae low of 146.55 so far due to the sharp fall in the Dollar Index below 106.



September '25 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast
WHAT'S NEW?
Sep '25 Monthly Forecast
Our September '25 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
September'25 EURUSD Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Sep'25 EURUSD Report
In our August 2025 outlook (dated 11-Aug-2025, EURUSD at 1.1623), we projected the Euro to strengthen towards 1.19–1.20 over the following months, before retreating to 1.14 by December 2025 and further easing to ...Read More
Oct'25 USDJPY Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Oct'25 USDJPY Report
In our 12-Sep-25 report (USDJPY 147.96), we expected the USDJPY to limit the downside to 144 and ascend towards 155-158 in the coming months. In line with our view, USDJPY limited the downside to ... Read More
October'25 GOI Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Oct'25 GOI Report
In our 10-Sep-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.48%) we expected the RBI to be on pause in its next MPC meeting on 01-Oct. This is to be seen tomorrow. We had also said there was room for the FOMC to cut rates by 25-50bp, and accordingly they ... Read More
October'25 Crude Oil Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Oct'25 Crude Oil Report
The WTI Net Long/short position has remained below 2 for about 2-months now, the longest time since 2006. The market sentiment continues to be bearish on crude prices for the near term. ... Read More
Sep '25 US Treasury Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Sep '25 US Treasury Report
In our last report (29-Jul-25, UST10Yr 4.42%) we expected the FED to remain on hold and said that since data was inconclusive the US10Yr was likely to be indecisively ranged in August, with a bit of .... Read More
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