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May ' 25 GOI Report

As expected in our 08-Apr-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.49%) the RBI did cut the Repo by 25bp in its 09-Apr meeting and the 10Yr GOI has fallen from 6.49% to a low of 6.30% instead of rising towards 6.60%. This is contrary to the sharp rise in US10Yr after the imposition of tariffs by the USA led to an exodus from US Bonds and the US Dollar. Surprisingly, despite the fall in Brent to a low of $58.20, the FOMC has refused to lower rates citing increased risk of stagflation in the USA. In our last report we had also said that the RBI it may be on a wait and watch mode in its 06-June meeting. Let us see now.

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July '25 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast

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July '25 Quarterly Forecast

Our July '25 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

July'25 EURUSD Report

The Dollar Index has high chances of rebounding from support at 96, in which case, it could limit the immediate upside for Euro and lead to a decline in the coming months ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

July'25 USDJPY Report

In our 07-Jun-25 report (USDJPY 144.90), we expected the pair to extend the fall to 138-136 initially before ascending towards 150 in the longer run. Contrary to expectation, the pair ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

July'25 GOI Report

In our 05-Jun-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.25%) we said that the 10Yr GOI downside is limited to 6.0% from where it can rise towards 6.5%. In line with that, although the 10Yr GOI dipped ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Aug'25 Crude Oil Report

Our August 2025 Crude Oil Monthly Report covers updates on OPEC+ production, inventory changes and cross-commodity correlations. Our analysis includes both technical setups and broader market indicators shaping the near-term outlook for Brent. ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Aug '25 US Treasury Report

In our last report (28-Jun-25, UST10Yr 4.28%) we had highlighted the stagflation dilemma faced by the US FED (which still remains); had said that the Inflation Expectation could rise (it did indeed rise); that Inflation is .... Read More

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