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US Treasury Report
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February ' 25 US Treasury Report

Assuming greater chances of a slowdown rather than a recession, we project the US10Yr to rise towards 5.25% (May-25), followed by a dip towards 4.55% (Jul-25) and then another rise back towards 5.25% (Jan-26). The 10-2Yr Spread can steepen. Some factors suggesting a slowdown are discussed. Yet, the US10Yr may rise as it has a positive correlation with Inflation Expectations, which is in an uptrend.
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