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February ' 25 US Treasury Report

Assuming greater chances of a slowdown rather than a recession, we project the US10Yr to rise towards 5.25% (May-25), followed by a dip towards 4.55% (Jul-25) and then another rise back towards 5.25% (Jan-26). The 10-2Yr Spread can steepen. Some factors suggesting a slowdown are discussed. Yet, the US10Yr may rise as it has a positive correlation with Inflation Expectations, which is in an uptrend.

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May '25 Monthly Forecast

Our May '25 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

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In our last report (04-Apr-25, UST10Yr 3.89%) we had said that the US10Yr could fall to 3.90-80% within April-May and then be ranged between 3.90-4.40% for a few months before falling further towards 3.4% by Nov-25. As expected, the US 10Yr rose from 3.86% to as high as 4.59%, surpassing the projected range high of 4.4%, as there was .... Read More

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