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December' 24 US Treasury Report

In our Nov-24 report (31-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 4.26%), we had said that it was possible that the FED may cut rates by at least another 50bp in 2024; that the fall in the US10Yr from 5.02% is over and an immediate dip from 4.4% to 4.0-3.8% could give way to an eventual rise past 4.8% towards 5.0%. In line with that, the FED did cut rates by 25bp in November. Although the US 10Yr rose to 4.50% during November on the back of strong US data, it has also fallen back to 4.26%, in line with our expectation of a fall towards 4.0-3.8%.

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