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December' 24 US Treasury Report

In our Nov-24 report (31-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 4.26%), we had said that it was possible that the FED may cut rates by at least another 50bp in 2024; that the fall in the US10Yr from 5.02% is over and an immediate dip from 4.4% to 4.0-3.8% could give way to an eventual rise past 4.8% towards 5.0%. In line with that, the FED did cut rates by 25bp in November. Although the US 10Yr rose to 4.50% during November on the back of strong US data, it has also fallen back to 4.26%, in line with our expectation of a fall towards 4.0-3.8%.

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January '25 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan '25 Quarterly Forecast

Our January '25 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'25 EURUSD Report

In our Dec-24 edition (12-Dec-24, EURUSD @ 1.0505), we expected the Euro to limit its downside to 1.0333 and bounce back towards 1.0650-1.08 by Feb-25 followed by an eventual rise to 1.09-1.11 by mid of 2025. But contrary to our expectations, Euro broke below 1.0333 and sustained lower towards 1.01. ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'25 Crude Oil Report

With the US economic data strong and stable, the earlier expected US slowdown has not played out, resulting in the crude price trading higher while above $70 (Brent). While there is uncertainty in the long-term direction for crude, as long as it stays within the range of $67-80 (Brent), we have kept our earlier forecasts intact this month. Supply from the OPEC countries is also likely to remain tight for the next couple of months. Additionally, a rising Dollar could keep the crude at the higher end of its sideways range for now. ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan '25 US Treasury Report

Yields have risen across the Curve in line with the anticipations in our Dec-24 report (30-Nov-24, UST10Y 4.18%).Both the US5Yr and US10Yr have risen well as expected. Even the US2Yr has risen, but the rise is a little .... Read More

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