Morning BriefingThe US Treasury Yields have risen back well. The inflation data release has aided this bounce back. However, the yields have to rise past their immediate resistance in order to gain strength and go further higher. The US CPI rose 4.17% (YoY) in May from 3.78% in April. High inflation is likely to aid in limiting the downside for the Treasury Yields going forwards. The German Yields have moved up. A further rise from here can take them higher and will avoid the chances of falling back. The ECB meeting outcome today evening will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has bounced back well from its support. Need to see if it is getting a strong follow-through rise from here to avoid the danger of seeing an extended fall. We will have to wait and watch. GMT 12:15 IST 17:45 ECB Mtg
Our June '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
WHAT'S NEW?
June'26 EURUSD Report
In our May 2026 report (11-May-26, EURUSD 1.1762), we expected the Euro to rise to 1.1950 by May-26 before falling towards 1.16-1.14 in the coming months. We delayed the fall to 1.10 from the earlier expected Aug-26 to Mar-27 as the Dollar Index remained within a broad range for more than expected... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 USDJPY Report
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
June'26 GOI Report
In our 11-Apr-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.03%) we had retained our bullish view on Brent towards $134 by Sep-26, while allowing for a near term dip to $95 on hopes of a US-Iran resolution. Brent fell to $89.93, lower than... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
June'26 Crude Oil Report
In our May 2026 report (4-May-26, Brent @ $110.75), we expected Brent to test $90.50 by Jul-26, followed by a
rise to $145.13 by Sep-26 and $161.93 by Dec-26. Sustained trade below $100 was expected to be seen only on a credible resolution of the US-Iran war, which looked unlikely. ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
June '26 US Treasury Report
In our last report (29-Apr-26, UST10Yr 4.35%), we had said that the FED was likely to leave rates unchanged, which it did. We had also said that “once Kevin Warsh comes in, the FED is more likely to cut, responding to .... Read More
