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Archive Dec-25:You have to set the example

Some 18 years ago we started measuring the performance of our forecasts as well as of our hedging advice. If we are not ready to stand up to measurement and scrutiny, who is?
EcoComic Calendar 2025
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DECEMBER - 2025
DATE TIME ECONOMIC DATA UNIT EXPECTATIONS PREV ACTUAL
1-Dec-25 0:30 06:00 JP PMI   48.4 48.8 48.2 48.7
  1:45 07:15 CN PMI   50.6 50.5 50.6 49.9
  5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI   57.6 57.4 59.2 56.6
  9:00 14:30 EU PMI   - 49.8 50.0 49.6
  9:30 15:00 UK PMI   47.5 50.2 49.7 50.2
  12:00 17:30 IN IIP % 3.1 3.6 4.6 0.4
  14:30 20:00 CA PMI   - - 49.6 48.4
  15:00 20:30 US Manufacturing ISM   48.0 49.0 48.7 48.2
2-Dec-25 10:00 15:30 EU Unemp % 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.4
  10:00 15:30 EU CPI Flash Estimate (YoY) % 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.1
3-Dec-25 22:30 04:00 AU PMI   -18.3 - -22.0 -18.0
  0:30 06:00 AU GDP % - 0.7 0.7 0.4
  5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI   59.4 59.9 58.9 59.8
  7:30 13:00 CH CPI   0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
  13:15 18:45 US ADP Emp K 133.3 19.0 47.0 -31.0
  14:15 19:45 US Industrial Production % 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.1
  14:15 19:45 US Capacity Utilization % 77.0 77.3 76.1 75.9
4-Dec-25 0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance A$ Bln - 4.4 3.4 -6.3
  8:30 14:00 CH PMI   48.6 49.0 48.2 49.7
  10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales % 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0
  13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance $ Bln - -65.5 -55.6 -52.8
  15:00 20:30 US New Home Sales K 789 716 711 738
5-Dec-25 4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate % - 5.25 5.50 5.25
  4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate % - - 3.35 3.35
  4:30 10:00 RBI MSF % - - 5.75 5.5
  10:00 15:30 EU GDP % - 0.2 0.2 0.3
  13:30 19:00 US Personal Income % 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4
  13:30 19:00 US PCE Price Index M/M % 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
  12:30 18:00 US Core PCE % 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
  13:30 19:00 CA Labour Force K - -7.6 66.6 53.6
8-Dec-25 23:50 05:20 JP GDP % - 0.1% 0.6% 0.2%
9-Dec-25 3:30 09:00 RBA Meeting % - 3.60 3.60 3.60
10-Dec-25 1:30 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)   - 0.7 0.2 0.7
  1:30 07:00 CN PPI   - -2.0 -2.1 -2.2
  14:00 19:30 BOC Meeting % - 2.3 2.3 2.3
  18:00 23:30 US FOMC Meeting % - <3.75 <4.00 <3.75
11-Dec-25 0:30 06:00 Australia Labour Force K - 20.3 41.2 -21.4
  8:30 14:00 SNB Mtg % - 0.0 0.0 0.0
  13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance $ Bln - -65.5 -55.6 -52.8
12-Dec-25 7:00 12:30 UK Trade Bal GBP (Bln) -21.4 -19.0 -20.8 -22.5
  12:00 17:30 IN CPI   0.60 0.70 0.25 0.71
15-Dec-25 23:50 05:20 JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index   - 15 14 15
  2:00 07:30 CN Retail Sales   - 3.0 2.9 1.3
  2:00 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)   - 5.0 4.9 4.8
  6:30 12:00 IN WPI % -0.75 -0.60 -1.02 -0.32
  10:00 15:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM) % 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.8
  9:30 15:00 IN Trade bal $ Bln - - -41.7 -24.5
  13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y % - 2.4 2.2 2.2
16-Dec-25 7:00 12:30 UK Unemp % 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1
  10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal EUR Bln - 18.3 18.7 14.0
  13:30 19:00 US NFP K 53 50 86 64
  13:30 19:00 US Unemployment Rate % - 4.5 4.4 4.6
  13:30 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings   0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
  13:30 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees   - - 0.2 0.3
  13:30 19:00 US Retail Sales (MoM) % 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1
17-Dec-25 7:00 12:30 UK CPI Y/Y % 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.3
  9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate   87.7 88.2 88.0 87.6
  9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations Index 85.7 85.7 85.6 85.6
  9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations Index 89.7 91.0 90.5 89.7
  10:00 15:30 EU CPI (YoY) % 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.1
18-Dec-25 12:00 17:30 BOE Mtg % - 3.75 4.00 3.75
  12:00 17:30 UK BOE Minutes   - 0-5-4 0-4-5 0-5-4
  13:15 18:45 ECB Mtg % 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15
  13:30 19:00 US CPI (MoM)   0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
  13:30 19:00 US Core CPI (MoM) % 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2
  13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index   3.6 2.5 -1.7 -10.2
  14:00 02:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec) $ Bln - 122.7 177.5 17.5
19-Dec-25 23:30 05:00 JP CPI   3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9
  0:05 05:35 UK Cons Conf   -17.8 -18.0 -19.0 -17.0
  3:00 08:30 BOJ Meeting % - 0.75 0.50 0.75
  14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales K 4147 4150 4110 4130
22-Dec-25 7:00 12:30 UK GDP % - 0.1 0.4 0.1
23-Dec-25 13:30 19:00 US GDP % - 3.3 3.8 4.3
13:30 19:00 US Durable Goods Orders % 0.4 0.2 0.7 -2.2
  13:30 19:00 CA GDP % - -0.3 0.2 -0.3
  14:15 19:45 US Industrial Production % 1.0 0.1 0.2 0.2
  14:15 19:45 US Capacity Utilization % 75.6 75.9 76.1 76.0
  15:00 20:30 US Cons Conf   88.3 91.7 92.9 89.1
26-Dec-25 23:30 05:00 JP Unemp % 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
29-Dec-25 10:00 15:30 EU Biz Climate   96.8 97.0 97.1 96.7
29-Dec-25 12:00 17:30 IN IIP % 3.5 2.5 0.5 6.7
30-Dec-25 14:00 19:30 US Case Schiller % - 1.1 1.4 1.3
31-Dec-25 1:45 07:15 CN PMI   - 52.0 49.9 -
                 
January '26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan '26 Quarterly Forecast
Our January '26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
January'26 EURUSD Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 EURUSD Report
Brent and EU Inflation has been low in the last few months. If both the EU Inflation and Brent see a gradual rise in 2026, the upside could be ...Read More
January'26 USDJPY Report
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Jan'26 USDJPY Report
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More
January'26 GOI Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 GOI Report
In our 04-Dec-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.54%) we conceded that RBI may cut the Repo due to the unexpectedly sharp fall in the Oct-25 CPI to 0.25%. The RBI then indeed ... Read More
January'26 Crude Oil Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 Crude Oil Report
Crude prices have been steady and tilted to the downside over the last few months. Hovering near $60, can it gradually move up towards $70? Or could there be room for more fall towards $55/50? ... Read More
Jan '26 US Treasury Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan '26 US Treasury Report
As expected in our last report (09-Dec-25, UST10Yr 4.16%) the US Fed indeed reduced the Fed Rate further by 25bp to 3.75%. We had also said that we expect another .... Read More
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