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Archive Nov-25:Currencies CAN be forecasted

Conventional wisdom says currencies cannot be forecasted. However, we at KSHITIJ had faith that we could do the impossible. And we did, with an 18 year track record of 60% Reliability
EcoComic Calendar 2025
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NOVEMBER - 2025
DATE TIME ECONOMIC DATA UNIT EXPECTATIONS PREV ACTUAL
3-Nov-25 1:45 07:15 CN PMI   51.6 50.7 51.2 50.6
  5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI   58.7 58.4 57.7 59.2
  7:30 13:00 CH CPI   0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1
  8:30 14:00 CH PMI   49.9 47.7 46.3 48.2
  9:00 14:30 EU PMI   49.2 50.0 49.8 50.0
  9:30 15:00 UK PMI   45.1 49.6 46.2 49.7
  14:30 20:00 CA PMI   47.7 48.2 47.7 49.6
  15:00 20:30 US Manufacturing ISM   50.2 49.4 49.1 48.7
4-Nov-25 0:30 06:00 JP PMI   49.0 48.3 48.5 48.2
  3:30 09:00 RBA Meeting % - 3.6 3.6 3.6
  13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance $ Bln - -61.4 -78.2 -59.6
5-Nov-25 22:30 04:00 AU PMI   -10.4 - -13.2 -22.0
  13:15 18:45 US ADP Emp K -53.9 28.0 -29.0 42.0
6-Nov-25 0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance A$ Bln - 3.9 1.1 3.9
  5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI   60.1 59.9 60.9 58.9
  10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales % 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1
  12:00 17:30 BOE Mtg % - 4.0 4.0 4.0
  12:00 17:30 UK BOE Minutes   - 0-1-8 0-2-7 0-4-5
7-Nov-25 13:30 19:00 CA Labour Force K - -5.0 60.4 66.6
9-Nov-25 1:30 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)   - -0.2 -0.3 0.2
  1:30 07:00 CN PPI   - -2.3 -2.3 -2.1
11-Nov-25 7:00 12:30 UK Unemp % 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.0
12-Nov-25 12:00 17:30 IN CPI   1.27 0.48 1.44 0.25
13-Nov-25 0:30 06:00 Australia Labour Force K - 20.3 12.8 42.2
  7:00 12:30 UK Trade Bal GBP (Bln) -18.6 -20.8 -19.5 -18.9
  10:00 15:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM) % 0.1 0.8 -1.1 0.2
14-Nov-25 2:00 07:30 CN Retail Sales   - 2.7 3.0 2.9
  2:00 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)   - 5.5 6.5 4.9
  6:30 12:00 IN WPI % -1.40 -0.60 0.13 -1.21
  9:00 14:30 EU Flash GDP % - 0.2 0.2 0.2
  10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal EUR Bln - 8.8 10.6 18.7
  13:30 19:00 US PPI % 0.0 0.3 -0.1 0.3
  13:30 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)   0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.1
  13:30 19:00 US Retail Sales (MoM) % 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.1
17-Nov-25 23:50 05:20 JP GDP % - -0.6% 0.5% -0.4%
  9:30 15:00 IN Trade bal $ Bln - -29.4 -32.2 -41.7
  13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y % - 2.1 2.2 2.2
18-Nov-25 13:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec) $ Bln - 125.9 39.0 179.8
19-Nov-25 7:00 12:30 UK CPI Y/Y % 4.2 3.6 3.8 3.6
  10:00 15:30 EU CPI (YoY) % 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.1
  13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance $ Bln - -61.4 -78.2 -59.6
20-Nov-25 13:30 19:00 US NFP K 59 58 -4 119
  13:30 19:00 US Unemployment Rate % - 4.3 4.3 4.4
  13:30 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings   0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2
  13:30 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees   - - 0.3 0.3
  13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index   -33.0 0.1 -12.8 -1.7
  15:00 20:30 US Existing Home Sales K 4154 4090 4050 4100
21-Nov-25 23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf   -19 -18 -17 -19
  23:30 05:00 JP CPI   2.5 3.0 2.8 3.0
24-Nov-25 9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate   88.0 88.6 88.4 88.1
  9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations Index 85.3 85.5 85.3 85.6
  9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations Index 91.1 91.4 91.6 90.6
25-Nov-25 13:30 19:00 US PPI % 0.0 0.3 -0.1 0.3
  13:30 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)   0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.1
  13:30 19:00 US Retail Sales (MoM) % 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.1
  14:00 19:30 US Case Schiller % 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.4
  15:00 20:30 US Cons Conf   99.7 93.4 95.5 88.7
  13:30 19:00 US Personal Income % 0.5 0.3 0.4 -
  13:30 19:00 US PCE Price Index M/M % 0.4 0.2 0.2 -
26-Nov-25 13:30 19:00 US Durable Goods Orders % 1.7 0.3 3.0 0.5
  13:30 19:00 US GDP % - - 3.8 -
  15:00 20:30 US New Home Sales K 789 710 800 -
27-Nov-25 10:00 15:30 EU Biz Climate   96.5 97.0 96.8 97.0
28-Nov-25 23:30 05:00 JP Unemp % 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6
  8:00 13:30 CH GDP % - -0.5 0.2 -
  12:00 17:30 IN GDP % 7.2% 7.3% 7.8% 8.2%
  13:30 19:00 CA GDP % - 0.2 -0.1 0.2
                 
                 
January '26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan '26 Quarterly Forecast
Our January '26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
January'26 EURUSD Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 EURUSD Report
Brent and EU Inflation has been low in the last few months. If both the EU Inflation and Brent see a gradual rise in 2026, the upside could be ...Read More
January'26 USDJPY Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 USDJPY Report
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More
January'26 GOI Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 GOI Report
In our 04-Dec-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.54%) we conceded that RBI may cut the Repo due to the unexpectedly sharp fall in the Oct-25 CPI to 0.25%. The RBI then indeed ... Read More
January'26 Crude Oil Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 Crude Oil Report
Crude prices have been steady and tilted to the downside over the last few months. Hovering near $60, can it gradually move up towards $70? Or could there be room for more fall towards $55/50? ... Read More
Jan '26 US Treasury Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan '26 US Treasury Report
As expected in our last report (09-Dec-25, UST10Yr 4.16%) the US Fed indeed reduced the Fed Rate further by 25bp to 3.75%. We had also said that we expect another .... Read More
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