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Archive July-24:A natural hedge can lose you money

You might be paying more for imports than earning on exports with your natural hedge. Have you checked?
EcoComic Calendar 2024
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JULY- 2024
DATE TIME ECONOMIC DATA UNIT EXPECTATIONS PREV ACTUAL
  GMT IST     KSHITIJ MARKET    
1-Jul-24 23:50 05:20 JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index   - 11 11 13
  0:30 06:00 JP PMI   50.3 50.1 50.4 50.0
  1:45 07:15 CN PMI   51.9 51.5 51.7 51.8
  5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI   57.8 58.5 57.5 58.3
  7:30 13:00 CH PMI   44.2 45.2 46.4 43.9
  8:00 13:30 EU PMI   - 45.6 47.3 45.8
  8:30 14:00 UK PMI   51.5 51.4 51.2 50.9
  14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM   49.3 49.2 48.7 48.5
2-Jul-24 9:00 14:30 EU Unemp % 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4
  9:00 14:30 EU CPI Flash Estimate (YoY) % 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5
  13:30 19:00 CA PMI   - - 49.3 49.3
3-Jul-24 22:30 04:00 AU PMI   - - -31.1 -26.5
  5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI   59.7 60.4 60.2 60.5
  12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp K - 156 157 150
  12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance $ Bln -73.3 -76.0 -74.5 -75.1
4-Jul-24 0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance A$ Bln - 6.20 5.69 5.77
  6:30 12:00 CH CPI   1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
5-Jul-24 9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales % 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.1
  12:30 18:00 US NFP K 236 189 218 206
  12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate % 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1
  12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings   0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3
  12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees   -3.3 - 0.4 0.3
  12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force K - 24.5 26.7 -1.4
10-Jul-24 1:30 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)   - 0.4 0.3 0.2
  1:30 07:00 CN PPI   - -0.8 -1.4 -0.8
11-Jul-24 6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal GBP (Bln) -18.5 -15.6 -19.4 -17.9
  12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)   0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1
  12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM) % 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
12-Jul-24 12:00 17:30 IN IIP % 3.1 4.9 5.0 5.9
  12:00 17:30 IN CPI   4.80 4.80 4.75 5.08
  12:30 18:00 US PPI % -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
  12:30 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)   0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4
15-Jul-24 6:30 12:00 IN WPI % 2.5 - 2.6 3.4
  9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM) % -0.4 - 0.0 -0.6
  10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal $ Bln -23.4 - -23.8 -21.0
16-Jul-24 9:00 14:30 EU Trade Bal EUR Bln - 18.0 18.5 12.3
  12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM) % 0.1 - 0.2 -0.1
  12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y % - - 2.9 2.7
17-Jul-24 6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y % 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0
  9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY) % 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5
  12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts K 1198 1300 1314 1353
  13:15 18:45 US Industrial Production % -0.1 - 0.9 0.7
  13:15 18:45 US Capacity Utilization % 78.5 - 78.3 78.8
18-Jul-24 1:30 07:00 Australia Labour Force K - 19.9 39.5 50.2
  6:00 11:30 UK Unemp % 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4
  11:45 17:15 ECB Mtg % 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25
  12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index   1.9 2.7 1.3 13.9
  13:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec) $ Bln - 98.4 123.1 -54.6
19-Jul-24 23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf   -14 -12 -14 -13
  23:30 05:00 JP CPI   3.0 2.7 2.9 2.9
  9:00 14:30 EU GDP % - 0.2 0.31 0.3
23-Jul-24 14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales K 4105 3990 4110 3890
24-Jul-24 14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales K 586 643 621 617
  14:00 19:30 BOC Meeting % - 4.50 4.75 4.50
25-Jul-24 8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate   88.1 88.9 88.6 87.0
  8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations Index 87.0 88.5 88.3 87.1
  8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations Index 88.1 89.0 88.8 86.9
  12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders % 1.2 0.4 0.1 -6.6
  12:30 18:00 US GDP % - 1.9 1.4 2.8
26-Jul-24 12:30 18:00 US Personal Income % 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2
  12:30 18:00 US PCE   0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1
  12:30 18:00 US Core PCE Price Index M/M % 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2
30-Jul-24 23:30 05:00 JP Unemp % 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5
  13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller % 6.9 6.5 7.2 6.8
  14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf   102.5 99.8 97.8 100.3
31-Jul-24 1:30 07:00 AU CPI % 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.8
  3:00 08:30 BOJ Meeting % - 0.10 0.10 0.25
  9:00 14:30 EU CPI Flash Estimate (YoY) % 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6
  12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp K - 166 155 122
  12:30 18:00 CA GDP % - 0.1 0.3 0.2
  18:00 23:30 US FOMC Meeting % 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50
                 
                 
November '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast
WHAT'S NEW?
Nov '24 Monthly Forecast
Our November '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
November '24 EURUSD Report
WHAT'S NEW?
November '24 EURUSD Report
After Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, will the Dollar Index fall in the coming months aiding Euro strength? Or will aggressive rate cuts by the ECB and political uncertainity in Germany and France continue to put downside pressure on the Euro? ...Read More
November'24 Crude Oil Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Nov'24 Crude Oil Report
In our Oct-24 report (3-Oct-24, Brent $74.98), we had expected Brent to trade within $80-60 in the coming months. We had laid out a possibility of downside extension to $55-50 in case of a US recession in the Jan-Mar’25 quarter. Else a shallow recession or slowdown could limit the downside to $60. Brent remained above the Sep-24 low of $68.68 through Oct-24 trading within the broad $81.16-69.91 region, in line with our broader mentioned range of $80-60. ... Read More
November '24 US Treasury Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Nov '24 US Treasury Report
In our Oct-24 report (01-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 3.79%), we had said that in contrast with history, there were no immediate signs of a US recession and the earlier it could set in might be in Jan-Mar 2025, or maybe even later. We also favored just a slowdown, or at most a shallow recession. In accordance with this, the US data in October has been mixed to strong .... Read More
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