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Archive July-24:A natural hedge can lose you money

You might be paying more for imports than earning on exports with your natural hedge. Have you checked?
EcoComic Calendar 2024
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JULY- 2024
DATE TIME ECONOMIC DATA UNIT EXPECTATIONS PREV ACTUAL
  GMT IST     KSHITIJ MARKET    
1-Jul-24 23:50 05:20 JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index   - 11 11 13
  0:30 06:00 JP PMI   50.3 50.1 50.4 50.0
  1:45 07:15 CN PMI   51.9 51.5 51.7 51.8
  5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI   57.8 58.5 57.5 58.3
  7:30 13:00 CH PMI   44.2 45.2 46.4 43.9
  8:00 13:30 EU PMI   - 45.6 47.3 45.8
  8:30 14:00 UK PMI   51.5 51.4 51.2 50.9
  14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM   49.3 49.2 48.7 48.5
2-Jul-24 9:00 14:30 EU Unemp % 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4
  9:00 14:30 EU CPI Flash Estimate (YoY) % 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5
  13:30 19:00 CA PMI   - - 49.3 49.3
3-Jul-24 22:30 04:00 AU PMI   - - -31.1 -26.5
  5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI   59.7 60.4 60.2 60.5
  12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp K - 156 157 150
  12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance $ Bln -73.3 -76.0 -74.5 -75.1
4-Jul-24 0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance A$ Bln - 6.20 5.69 5.77
  6:30 12:00 CH CPI   1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
5-Jul-24 9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales % 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.1
  12:30 18:00 US NFP K 236 189 218 206
  12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate % 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1
  12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings   0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3
  12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees   -3.3 - 0.4 0.3
  12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force K - 24.5 26.7 -1.4
10-Jul-24 1:30 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)   - 0.4 0.3 0.2
  1:30 07:00 CN PPI   - -0.8 -1.4 -0.8
11-Jul-24 6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal GBP (Bln) -18.5 -15.6 -19.4 -17.9
  12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)   0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1
  12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM) % 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
12-Jul-24 12:00 17:30 IN IIP % 3.1 4.9 5.0 5.9
  12:00 17:30 IN CPI   4.80 4.80 4.75 5.08
  12:30 18:00 US PPI % -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
  12:30 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)   0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4
15-Jul-24 6:30 12:00 IN WPI % 2.5 - 2.6 3.4
  9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM) % -0.4 - 0.0 -0.6
  10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal $ Bln -23.4 - -23.8 -21.0
16-Jul-24 9:00 14:30 EU Trade Bal EUR Bln - 18.0 18.5 12.3
  12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM) % 0.1 - 0.2 -0.1
  12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y % - - 2.9 2.7
17-Jul-24 6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y % 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0
  9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY) % 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5
  12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts K 1198 1300 1314 1353
  13:15 18:45 US Industrial Production % -0.1 - 0.9 0.7
  13:15 18:45 US Capacity Utilization % 78.5 - 78.3 78.8
18-Jul-24 1:30 07:00 Australia Labour Force K - 19.9 39.5 50.2
  6:00 11:30 UK Unemp % 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4
  11:45 17:15 ECB Mtg % 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25
  12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index   1.9 2.7 1.3 13.9
  13:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec) $ Bln - 98.4 123.1 -54.6
19-Jul-24 23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf   -14 -12 -14 -13
  23:30 05:00 JP CPI   3.0 2.7 2.9 2.9
  9:00 14:30 EU GDP % - 0.2 0.31 0.3
23-Jul-24 14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales K 4105 3990 4110 3890
24-Jul-24 14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales K 586 643 621 617
  14:00 19:30 BOC Meeting % - 4.50 4.75 4.50
25-Jul-24 8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate   88.1 88.9 88.6 87.0
  8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations Index 87.0 88.5 88.3 87.1
  8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations Index 88.1 89.0 88.8 86.9
  12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders % 1.2 0.4 0.1 -6.6
  12:30 18:00 US GDP % - 1.9 1.4 2.8
26-Jul-24 12:30 18:00 US Personal Income % 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2
  12:30 18:00 US PCE   0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1
  12:30 18:00 US Core PCE Price Index M/M % 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2
30-Jul-24 23:30 05:00 JP Unemp % 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5
  13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller % 6.9 6.5 7.2 6.8
  14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf   102.5 99.8 97.8 100.3
31-Jul-24 1:30 07:00 AU CPI % 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.8
  3:00 08:30 BOJ Meeting % - 0.10 0.10 0.25
  9:00 14:30 EU CPI Flash Estimate (YoY) % 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6
  12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp K - 166 155 122
  12:30 18:00 CA GDP % - 0.1 0.3 0.2
  18:00 23:30 US FOMC Meeting % 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50
                 
                 
September '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast
WHAT'S NEW?
Sep '24 Monthly Forecast
Our September '24 Monthly Dollar-Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
September '24 EURUSD Report
WHAT'S NEW?
September '24 EURUSD Report
With EU Inflation within reach of its 2% target, will ECB cut rates today ahead of the FED policy meeting next week? Or will it skip and target a rate cut in Oct-24? ...Read More
September'24 Crude Oil Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Sep'24 Crude Oil Report
Brent has held above $74 and risen slightly. It may continue to move within the sideways range for some more time. Thereafter, will it break higher? Or fall lower below $74? Also will US actually see a recession? Or will data improve over the next few months and reduce recession chances? ... Read More
September '24 US Treasury Report
WHAT'S NEW?
Sep '24 US Treasury Report
In our Aug-24 report (31-Jul-24, US10Yr @ 4.14%), we were looking for the US10Yr to consolidated between 4.1-4.4% in August, before falling to 4.0-3.8% by Sep-Oct. As it turns out, there was no consolidation in August and the 10Yr has already fallen to 3.8%. Powell has signalled a rate cut in September as .... Read More
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