GOOD MORNING!
FOREX
Dollar Index continues to look weak towards 98.50/98.00 while Euro can rise in the coming sessions towards 1.17 or higher. Aussie and Pound have risen well, while Dollar-Yen may stay capped below 160 for the very near term. EURINR and EURJPY look bullish toward higher targets of 112.50 and 186-188 while USDCNY remains weak heading towards 6.70. USDINR is likely to stay range-bound below 95.80 for now but medium term looks unclear at the moment.
Dollar Index (98.84) continues to trade below 99 and looks bearish towards 98.50-98.00, while EURUSD (1.1681) may have scope to test 1.17 and a break higher can bring in 1.18 into the picture. There is enough room on the upside above 1.17.
Dollar-Yen (158.87) is holding below 160 and has some chances of falling towards 158.50-158 before rebounding. A decisive break above 160 is necessary for USDJPY to rise towards 161.
EURINR (111.7113) looks bullish towards 112.50 in the near term, a break above which, will open up chances of a further rally towards 114/115.
EURJPY (185.54) holds above 185, targeting 186-188 while USDCNY (6.7234) is bearish towards 6.70.
Aussie (0.7165) and Pound (1.3646) are rising and can target 0.72-0.7250 and 1.37-1.38 respectively in the near term.
USDINR (95.68) could trade in a sideways range between 95.80-95.60 region. A break on the upside, if seen will trigger further rise to 96-96.30 else the Rupee can see some strength towards 95.50/30. Watch price action for the next few sessions.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury Yields hold higher. The bullish view is intact to see more rise going forward. Any intermediate dips can be short-lived as supports are there to limit the downside. The German Yields sustain higher but remain stable. The view remains bullish for the yields to rise further from here. The 10Yr GoI has dipped. The upside remains open to see higher levels before the broader downtrend resumes.
The US 10Yr (4.72%) and 30Yr (5.25%) yields hold higher. The 10Yr can break its 4.59%-4.75% range and go up to 4.8% initially and then to 5% eventually. The 30Yr can rise to 5.4% while above 5.15%-5.1%.
The German 10Yr (3.26%) and 30Yr (3.76%) Yields have been stable over the last few days. We expect a rise to 3.3%-3.35% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) on the upside. Thereafter we have to see if a correction is happening or not.
The 10Yr GoI (6.8495%) has come down. 6.8%-6.9%/6.95% can be the broad trading range within which the yield can move for now. While below 6.95%, we retain our bearish view of seeing 6.7%-6.6%.
STOCKS
Dow has bounced from 52800 and can rise towards 53500-54000, while DAX can move towards 26250-26500 above 26000. Nifty remains positive above 24100 and can rise towards 24300-24400. Nikkei remains vulnerable below 66000, with downside towards 64500-64000, while Shanghai has broken below 3900 and can decline towards 3850-3800.
Dow (53361.71, +0.03%) has bounced back above 53000 from the mentioned support. While the support near 52800 holds, a further rise towards 53500-54000 can be seen in the coming sessions.
DAX (26153.28, -0.12%) has bounced back above 26000. While it holds above this level, a further rise towards 26250-26500 can be seen.
Nifty (24,252.00, +0.08%) failed to sustain above 24300 on Friday. As long as it remains above the support at 24100, it can move higher towards 24300-24400.
Nikkei (65840.66, -0.14%) is hovering below 66000 and remains vulnerable to a decline towards 64500-64000 in the near term.
Shanghai (3889.86, -0.41%) has broken below 3900, as cautioned earlier, and if it sustains below this level, a further decline towards 3850-3800 can be seen.
COMMODITIES
Latest developments remain focused on Middle East supply risks, with stalled US-Iran talks and expected US sanctions on Iran keeping oil markets volatile. Brent and WTI are likely to remain range-bound within $80-$95 and $75-$90 respectively until a breakout provides further direction. Gold remains bullish above $4200 and can rise further towards $4650-$4700, while Silver can advance towards $70-$75. Copper remains positive and can rise towards $6.65-$6.75. Natural Gas has dipped but can move towards $2.80 and higher in the coming sessions.
Brent ($92.61) and WTI ($85.31) are likely to remain broadly range-bound between $80-$95 and $75-$90 respectively for some time. A break above the mentioned ranges would trigger further bullishness.
Gold ($4688.30) has risen above $4600 in line with our expectations and can move further higher towards $4650-$4700 in the near term.
Silver ($68.87) is inching higher and can rise further towards $70-$75 in the near term.
Copper ($6.56) can rise further towards $6.65-$6.75 in the near term.
Natural Gas ($2.7270) has dipped but can move towards $2.80 and higher in the coming sessions.
DATA TODAY
No major data release today.
FRIDAY'S DATA:-
_______________
UK Cons Conf
...Expected -18 ...Previous -17 ... Actual-14
JP CPI
...Expected 1.8 ...Previous 1.7 ...Actual 1.9
IN Flash Manufacturing PMI
...Expected 53.9 ...Previous 53.5 ...Actual 52.9
IN Flash Services PMI
...Expected 53.8 ...Previous53.3 ...Acgtual 54.5
EU Flash PMI
...EXpected 51.8 ...Previous 51.9 ...Actual52.8
UK Flash PMI
...Kshitij Expn. 51.9 ...Expected51.6 ...Previous 51.9 ...Actual 51.5
DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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