Kshitij Consultancy Services
Morning Briefing Daily forecasts on global Stocks, Commodity, Forex and Interest Rates markets
17 Nov 17. 0906 IST or 0336 GMT or 2236 EST
GOOD MORNING!
STOCKS

Dow (23458.36, +0.80%) has bounced back sharply from above 23200 levels contrary to our expectation of testing slightly lower levels before resuming the bounce. While there is still scope to test 23000 on the downside, while that holds a rally to 23600-23700 looks likely in the medium term.

Dax (13047.22, +0.55%) managed to stay above 12800 and has traded in the narrow 13000-13050 region yesterday. While above 12800, a test of 13200 or higher looks possible.

Nikkei (22458.28, +0.48%) has moved up sharplyin the last couple of sessions and could re-attempt levels of 23000 and higher. Although Dollar Yen (112.55) is trading below 114.50-113.00 levels, Nikkei looks strong just now for the near term.

Shanghai (3385.64, -0.40%) continues to trade in the 3380-3450 region as expected. Range bound trade is likely to continue in the coming sessions.

Immediate support on the daily candles is holding well for Nifty (10214.75,+0.96%). While above 10100, there is scope for a rise towards 10400 in the coming sessions. Near term looks bullish while above 10100

COMMODITIES

Gold (1283.34) is trying to eventually move up towards 1300. Near term looks bullish.

Brent (61.16) is trading above immediate support of 61.00-60.85 levels mentioned yesterday. If that holds, price could bounce back towards 62-63 in the near term; else a break below 60.85, if seen could open up chances of testing 60 in the medium term.

WTI (55.25) is quiet above 54.80 and may remain stable for a couple of sessions before bouncing back towards 56 and higher. A break below 54.90/80, if seen could open up chances of 54-53 in the next 2-weeks.

Copper (3.0605) is almost stable. While below 3.10, there is some scope of testing 2.95-3.00 in the near term.

FOREX

EURO (1.1817) has broken above immediate down channel seen in the 3-day and weekly candle chart. While above 1.1780-1.1800, there is scope of testing higher levels of 1.1850-1.1900 before again coming off towards 1.17 or lower in the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (112.50) could test 112.00-111.60 levels if it does not immediately bounce back from current levels. Decent support is visible at current levels but that will have to hold to push the price back towards 113.00 and higher.

The Euro-Yen (132.92) is trading within the broad 134-131 channel and is right in the middle just now. While resistance near 134 holds, price may come off towards 131 eventually.

The Pound (1.3236) is on a rise targeting 1.3250-1.3300 levels for the coming sessions from where a sharp rejection back towards 1.32 or lower is possible.

The Aussie (0.7593) has immediate support near 0.7560 and while that holds, the price could gradually start moving up towards 0.7622-0.7650. Failure to sustain above 0.7560 could take it lower to test 0.75.

Dollar-Rupee (65.33) could see strength today as the Asian currencies look positive. The increase in ratings of the sovereign bonds by Moddy could bring in significant strength in the Rupee may be towards 65.00 or lower. The Korean Won (1096.7) has strengthened sharply from levels near 1120 in the last 3-days and could possibly impact the Rupee also in the near term.

INTEREST RATES

The German-Us 10Yr (-1.97%) could move up to -1.96% to -1.95% in the near term taking up the Euro to slightly higher levels. Thereafter a corrective fall towards -1.98% or lower is possible indicating some correction in Euro as well in the medium term.

The US Bond yields are almost stable. The US-10Yr (2.35%) and US-30Yr (2.80%) have risen by 1bps and 2bps respectively. While immediate support holds, the yields are likely to move up soon towards 2.40% and 2.90% respectively.

DATA TODAY

13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts
...Expected 1190 K ...Previous 1127 K

13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
...Previous 1.6 %


DATA YESTERDAY:-
------------
Australia Labour Force
...Expected 18.9K ...Previous 23.00K ...Actual 3.70 K

EU CPI (YoY)
...Expected 1.40 % ...Previous 1.53 % ...Actual 1.38 %

US Philifed Index
...Expected 24.5 ...Previous 27.9 ...Actual 22.7

US Industrial Production
...Expected 0.5 % ...Previous 0.4 % ...Actual 0.9 %

US Capacity Utilization
...Expected 76.3 % ...Previous 76.4 % ...Actual 77.0 %


DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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