GOOD MORNING!
FOREX
Due to a technical issue, the mail could not be sent this morning. Apologies for the delay in sharing it, and thank you for your understanding.
The Dollar index looks bullish for the near term while the Euro is bearish below 1.13. USDJPY can rise slowly towards 159 while EURJPY looks weak. EURINR could have limited downside and could soon bounce back in the coming sessions, while USDCNY is closed today. USDINR has scope to test 96.00-95.80 while below 96.35/50. A decisive break above 96.50 could turn bullish. Aussie and Pound could hold above crucial supports at 0.69 and 1.32 respectively and move up slowly.
Dollar Index (102.078) tested 102.535 before coming off from there. We may expect a slight pull back towards 101.50-101 in the near term but overall if the index sustains above 102 in the longer run, it could indicate medium term bullishness towards 104 or higher.
EURUSD (1.1236) tested 1.1161 before recovering back to current levels above 1.12. Overall view looks bearish while below 1.13.
Dollar-Yen (157.84) has scope to see a slow rise to 159 while above 157.
EURJPY (177.23) has risen slightly from levels seen yesterday. If the rise continues, we may expect a rise back above 178 else while below 178, view continues to remain bearish.
EURINR (108.1628) has also recovered well from the recent lows. The price needs to sustain above 108 to rise back slowly towards 109 or higher else can trade within 107-109 region for sometime.
USDCNY (6.7040) is closed today.
Aussie (0.6971) is holding above crucial support at 0.69. While the level holds, we may expect a bounce back towards 0.70/71 in the coming weeks. Similarly, Pound (1.3230) also has crucial support at 1.32 above which we may expect a sharp rebound for the medium term back towards 1.34/35.
USDINR (96.30) could see a dip back towards 96-95.80, if resistance near 96.35/50 holds immediately. Else a straight rise to 97 could be on the cards. Watch price action near 96.35 and 96.50.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury Yields continue to rise. The bullish view is intact. They can rise further and test their intermediate resistance. From a long-term perspective, there is potential to see much higher levels. The German Yields have risen back well from near their support. That keeps intact the broader uptrend. A follow-through rise from here can take them higher. The 10Yr GoI sustains higher. It has room to rise further from here. RBI’s monetary policy outcome tomorrow will need a close watch.
The US 10Yr (5.31%) and 30Yr (5.66%) yields have risen back well. 5.35%-5.4% (10Yr) and 5.7%-5.75% (30Yr) can be tested now. From a long-term perspective, there is potential to see much higher levels. Support is at 5.15%-5.1% (10Yr) and 5.55%-5.5% (30Yr).
The German 10Yr (3.49%) and 30Yr (3.86%) Yields have risen back. The support at 3.35% (10Yr) and 3.75% (3Yr) are holding well. That keeps intact our bullish view to see 3.7% (10Yr) and 4%-4.1% (30Yr) on the upside.
The 10Yr GoI (7.2108%) remains higher but stable. There is room for a rise to 7.25%-7.3%. Support is at 7.15% and 7.1%
STOCKS
Dow and DAX need to break 51500 and 25500 for further upside, otherwise downside risks remain. Nifty may open flat and needs to sustain above 22600 for a move toward 23000, while failure to hold could drag it toward 22200–22000. Nikkei remains bullish above 70000 with scope toward 72000, while a break below 70000 would expose 66500–66000. Shanghai remains closed for the Golden Week holiday and will resume trading on October 8.
Dow (51273.12, +0.18%) edged higher after testing the session low of 50868 before closing. A sustained move above 51500 is required to unlock further upside toward 52000 or higher. Failure to clear this level keeps the path open for a decline toward 50000–49800.
DAX (25254.84, +0.09%) must break and hold above 25500 to turn decisively bullish and open the way toward 25800 or higher. While capped below 25500, the bearish bias remains intact with downside risk toward 25000 in the coming session.
Nifty (22555.75, +0.60%) may open flat today and needs a sustained move above 22600 to extend higher toward 23000 over the week. Failure to hold this level leaves ample room for a pullback toward 22200–22000.
Nikkei (70163.93, +0.32%) continues to hold above 70000, keeping the bullish structure intact and supporting further gains toward 72000 in the weeks ahead. Only a decisive break below 70000 would shift the bias lower and open the way toward 66500–66000.
Shanghai (3842.19, +0.31%) remains closed for the Golden Week holiday and will resume normal trading on Thursday, October 8, 2026.
COMMODITIES
Brent and WTI remain positive above support and can rise towards $105-$110 and $95-$100. Gold needs to hold $4100 for a rise towards $4300-$4400. Silver needs to sustain above $60 for a rise towards $63-$65. Copper remains positive and can rise towards $6.75-$6.80. Natural Gas remains positive and can rise towards $3.10-$3.20.
Brent ($100.44) and WTI ($89.51) have dipped, but the direction remains upwards above their respective support levels. A rise towards $105-$110 and $95-$100, respectively, can be seen in the coming weeks.
Gold ($4158.80) needs to hold above immediate support near $4100 for a rise towards $4300-$4400. Otherwise, a break below $4100 could extend the fall towards $4000 or lower.
Silver ($61.06) needs to hold above $60 to keep alive the chances of a rise towards $63-$65. Otherwise, a break below $60 would trigger further bearishness.
Copper ($6.66) has risen in line with our expectations and can rise further towards $6.75-$6.80 in the near term.
Natural Gas ($3.08) is moving higher in line with our expectations and can rise further towards $3.10-$3.20.
DATA TODAY
5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
...Expected 55.8 ...Prevvious 55.8
9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
...Expected 0.30 %...Previous -0.57 %
12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
...shiti Expnn -76.6 A$bn ...Expected -95.2 A$bn ...Previous -88.6 A$bln
DATA YESTERRDAY:-
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No major data release yesterday.
DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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