Kshitij Consultancy Services
Morning Briefing Daily forecasts on global Stocks, Commodity, Forex and Interest Rates markets
24 Mar 17. 0851 IST or 0321 GMT or 2321 EST
GOOD MORNING!
STOCKS

Almost all equities globally has bounced yesterday as expected. Some stable movement is possible in the near term with attempts of rising further in the coming sessions.

Dow (20656.58, -0.02%) is holding above the channel support on the daily and if it continues to hold, we may see the index inch up towards 21000-21200 in the near term.

Dax (12039.68, +1.14%) has also bounced in line with expectation and could re0test resistance near 12200 in the coming sessions before again coming off towards 11900. The channel on the daily candles holds good for now.

Nikkei (19275.18, +0.99%) bounced from levels near 19000 and could move up towards 19400 in the near term. Overall the broad 19600-18600 region is expected to hold for at least a couple of weeks.

Shanghai (3248.52, 0%) is in a clear channel uptrend and while it holds above 3225-3250, near term looks bullish. There is enough room on the upside towards 3300 and even higher for the long term.

Nifty (9086.30, +0.62%) has bounced back from support on the 3-day candles and while that holds, it could possibly re-test 9100-9150 in the near term.

COMMODITIES

Gold (1243) was almost unchanged and trading within a narrow range of 1240-51. We continue to look for a close below 1240 levels in the near term to take fresh sell positions. But before that it may spend a few sessions within the 1240-55 regions.

Silver (17.57) has tested its pivot at 17.45-48 since last few sessions but unable to gather momentum to close higher. Overall we need to wait for confirmation for immediate directional clarity.

Copper (2.62) is trading within a range of 2.57-2.70. Only above 2.70, higher resistances of 2.80 can come into consideration. In the medium term 2.55-57 are going to be a strong support now and a close below that could open up 2.49 levels respectively.

Brent (50.57) and WTI (47.34) has fallen in line with our expectation. Considering the short term oversold sate, we may see some profit taking rally towards their respective resistances of 52-53 for Brent and 48.50-49.80 for WTI respectively. But the trend is still bearish. Any corrective bounce may face selling pressure at the higher levels.


FOREX

The Republicans have delayed the voting on the health care bill which may take place tonight. The markets will determine the capability of the Trump administration to deliver its pro-growth promises from the outcome of this vote and the direction of the Dollar may depend on that.

Dollar Index (99.98) is in a minor bounce with the major trend remaining down. Another leg to the downside still may be left which may take it down to 99.00-98.50, the major support. Resistance remains unchanged at 100.50-70.

Euro (1.0762) has weakened slightly and now is close to the immediate support at 1.0750 below which it may drop to 1.0700-1.0670. Downside possibilities can’t be discarded until a break above 1.0830-50 is seen.

Dollar-Yen (111.29) has made a low at 110.59, not too far away from our target of 110.00 but no sign of any bottoming action is visible yet. Some sideways consolidation in the band of 110.50-112.00 may take place for the next few sessions, which may resolve to the downside.

Pound (1.2489) is digesting its recent gains but the higher target of 1.2650-1.2700 remains unchanged with support coming at 1.2440-20.

Aussie (0.7616) is close to the near term support of 0.7600-0.7585 which may hold and keep the currency in the range of 0.7600-0.7750 for a few sessions more.

Dollar Rupee (65.52) may end the week in the narrow range of 65.30-60 and may come out of the range next week only.

INTEREST RATES

The US yields have paused and is trying to rise from current levels. The 5yr (1.97%), 10YR (2.44%) and the 30Yr (3.04%) are trading slightly higher and could move up in the near term.

The US-Japan 10YR (2.37%) has bounced in line with our expectation and while it tries to move up in the near term, it could pull up Dollar-Yen along with itself.

The Japanese 5Yr (-0.15%) has risen from support just below current levels and could move higher towards -0.10% in the near term. The 10yr 90.0750 and the 30Yr (0.84%) have also slightly risen and could move higher in the near term.

DATA TODAY

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
...Expected 1.10 % ...Previous 1.97 %

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
...Previous 2.1 %


DATA YESTERDAY:-
--------------
US New Home Sales
...Expected 566 K ...Previous 558 K ...Actual 592 K

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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