Morning Briefing Daily forecasts on global Stocks, Commodity, Forex and Interest Rates markets
21 Oct 16. 0856 IST or 0326 GMT or 2326 EST

Dow (18162.35, -0.22%) traded lower and closed at lower levels. Resistance near 18300-18400 is likely to hold in the near term keeping prices in the 18300-18000 region.

Dax (10701.39, +0.52%) has moved up as expected and could face some rejection near 10800. In case it breaks above 10800 on the upside, it could target higher levels of 11000.

Nikkei (17285.53, +0.29%) moved up sharply yesterday but could come off from levels near 17400
in the near term.

Shanghai (3096.46, +0.39%) has paused above 3075 and while the support at 3075 holds, it could move higher towards 3100-3150 in the coming sessions.

Nifty (8699.40,+0.47%) is likely to continue trading in the 8750-8500 range in the near term.


Crude has seen a sharp correction while the precious metals remain weak.

Gold (1262.10) has been rejected exactly from our resistance of 1275-80, keeping the chances of a resumption of the major downtrend open for a retest of 1240 and even 1200 can’t be ruled out.

Silver (17.40) has failed to rise above 17.80 in the last few days and remains in the broader range of 17.00-18.00 in line with our expectations but the downside risk may be just a bit higher at this moment.

Brent (51.14) and WTI (50.34) have corrected sharply just as expected. Brent may test the lower levels of 50.30-49.50 and WTI may extend the decline to 49.30 or even 48.00 in the near term.

Copper (2.094) has tested the channel support of 2.08 and trying to bounce. The possibility of rising to 2.15 is still open as long as 2.08 hold.


The continuation of stimulus for a longer period by the ECB (98.54) has strengthened Dollar Index and weakened all other majors.

Euro (1.0900) has achieved our immediate downside target of 1.0900 after the ECB signal that the stimulus may continue after the Mar’17 deadline. As the bearish momentum doesn’t show any signs of slowing down yet, the deeper levels of 1.0820-1.0780 come into consideration now.

Pound (1.2233) has been trading in the narrow range of 1.2100-1.2350 for the last 8 sessions as expected and it may continue in the same way for the next few sessions in a slightly broader range of 1.2100-1.2500.

Aussie (0.7628) broke above the resistance of 0.77 but it turned out to be a false breakout only, increasing the importance of 0.7800. In the near term, the chances of further sideways consolidation in the broader range of 0.7500-0.7750 increase a lot.

Dollar-Yen (104.17) may have ended its immediate corrective phase in line with our expectations and may test 104.80-105.00 in the next 1-3 sessions. Even if the resistance of 105 is overcome, the long term resistance of 106 is expected to hold.

Dollar Rupee (66.81) is almost unperturbed by the ECB meet and may remain in the 66.50-67.00 region for a couple of sessions more.


The German-US 2Yr (-1.50%) has come off sharply from resistance levels as expected and could continue falling in the near term. The spread has been giving a good indication of the Euro falling in the near term Euro has fallen and is trading near 1.09. If the spread extends its fall, Euro might see lower levels of probably 1.08 in the coming sessions.

The German yields are coming off from resistance levels and looks bearish in the near term.

The UK gilts are almost stable and while the chances of Pound falling is still on the cards, there may be some chances that the gilts may start rising without seeing any more dips in the near term.

The UK 10-5Yr (0.51%) is testing resistance near current levels and could come off in the next couple of sessions.


12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
...Previous 1.8 %


Australia Labour Force
...Expected 15.20 K ...Previous -8.6 K ...Actual -9.8 K

EU EA (17) Curr Acct Bal
...Previous 27.7 EUR Bln ...Expected 24.3 EUR Bln ...Actual 29.7 EUR Bln

...Expected 0.00 ...Previous 0.00 % ...Actual 0.00 %

US Philifed Index
...Expected 5.2 ...Previous 12.8 ...Actual 9.7

US Existing Home Sales
...Expected 5360 K ...Previous 5300 K ...Actul 5470 K

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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