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Morning Briefing Sharp 200 pip upmove in the Euro after the ECB meeting and press conference as Draghi said that in September, the ECB will start discussing tapering the ongoing QE which is expected to run till December at least. The market is building in chances of the Taper starting from Jan '18 itself.
The Euro (1.1625) rose to 1.158, a little short of the 1.1713 horizontal Resistance, which was the high seen in Aug '15. If this Resistance continues to hold, we could see a dip towards 1.1450 again over the next couple of weeks. A straight rise past 1.1713 is also a possibility and will trigger a lot of stop loss buying if it happens. We will wait and watch.
Strength in the Euro has caused Dollar-Rupee to open lower near 64.35, after having peeped up above 64.40 yesterday.
Month Open High Low Close
Apr-17 1.0658 1.0951 1.0570 1.0895
May-17 1.0898 1.1268 1.0838 1.1243
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Vikram Murarka ["Vikram Murarka, Chief Currency Strategist at KSHITIJ.COM. Likes to look at the markets from many different angles. Weaves many conventional and unconventional technical analysis techniques and fundamental analysis into a global macro perspective. Likes to take the road less traveled."]
JUN 13, 2017 AT 10:48 AM

13Jun17, EURUSD 1.1195: First big break above 21-mth MA in last two mths, since 1.38.
~ Vikram Murarka