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Morning Briefing A slight uptick in the German-US 10Yr Spread (-1.81%, see Interest Rates below) has helped the Euro (1.1952) move up since yesterday. As such, the overall uptrend still remains intact and unless there is a sharp decline today, we have to be open to chances of further rise.
In line with yesterday's warning, the Aussie (0.7922), however, has broken rank with the Euro and has broken below 0.7950 as well, on dovishness from the RBA Governor. A clear top is in place now and the uptrend since 0.7329 (May '17) is broken. A slow dip to 0.7850 is possible now.
At the same time, the German-US 10Yr has moved up 3 bp, from -1.84% to -1.81%, as the German 10Yr (0.45%) has also moved up by 1 bp. Still, as mentioned yesterday, the uptrend in the German-US 10Yr Spread since -2.16% (April 2017) is clearly broken now. Upside may be limited to -1.77%, while the downside may be open to -1.85% and even -1.90%. We have to see how this impacts the Euro in the medium-term.
Month Open High Low Close
Aug-17 1.1835 1.2070 1.1662 1.1920
Sep-17 1.1920 1.2092 1.1838 1.1951
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Expert Speak

Vikram Murarka ["Vikram Murarka, Chief Currency Strategist at KSHITIJ.COM. Likes to look at the markets from many different angles. Weaves many conventional and unconventional technical analysis techniques and fundamental analysis into a global macro perspective. Likes to take the road less traveled."]
JUN 13, 2017 AT 10:48 AM

13Jun17, EURUSD 1.1195: First big break above 21-mth MA in last two mths, since 1.38.
~ Vikram Murarka