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Oct ' 25 US Treasury Report

In our last report (03-Sep-25, UST10Yr 4.22%) we expected the FED cut rates by 50bp in the rest of 2025 and the shortend of the Curve to move down with the US2Yr falling towards 3.4-3.0%. At the same time, the US10Yr could be ranged between 4.16-4.70% till Feb-26 and then rise towards 5.15% by Aug-26. As widely expected, the FED cut rates by 25bp to 4.25% keeping room for 1 or 2 more cuts in 2025. The US2Yr did dip a bit, but only to 3.58%, while the US10Yr fell more from 4.22% to a low of 3.99%, leading to a degree of Curve flattening instead of Curve steepening. In the meanwhile, Gold has continued to rise and Japanese Yields have also soared along with the rise in Gold.

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January '26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan '26 Quarterly Forecast

Our January '26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'26 EURUSD Report

Brent and EU Inflation has been low in the last few months. If both the EU Inflation and Brent see a gradual rise in 2026, the upside could be ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'26 USDJPY Report

In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'26 GOI Report

In our 04-Dec-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.54%) we conceded that RBI may cut the Repo due to the unexpectedly sharp fall in the Oct-25 CPI to 0.25%. The RBI then indeed ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'26 Crude Oil Report

Crude prices have been steady and tilted to the downside over the last few months. Hovering near $60, can it gradually move up towards $70? Or could there be room for more fall towards $55/50? ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan '26 US Treasury Report

As expected in our last report (09-Dec-25, UST10Yr 4.16%) the US Fed indeed reduced the Fed Rate further by 25bp to 3.75%. We had also said that we expect another .... Read More

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