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May ' 26 US Treasury Report

In our last report (28-Mar-26, UST10Yr 4.43%), we had assumed little chances of the USA being able to easily extricate itself from the US-Israel-Iran war, and we said that as long Brent remains above $80, we can look for a sharper rise in the US10Yr towards 5.5–5.6%, without a multi-month sideways consolidation between 4.00-4.60%. Since then, within the ongoing vacillation on the ceasefire and the on-off negotiations, Brent Crude dipped to $86.09 in mid-April but has bounced back well from there. The US10Yr had dipped to 4.2% in the beginning of April but has moved back up a bit since then. Economic data releases have been mixed.
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