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Mar ' 26 US Treasury Report

In our last report (28-Jan-26, UST10Yr 4.23%) we had established the linkage between higher Crude and higher Inflation leading onto higher Yields and had said Yields were likely to move up along with Crude prices. At the same time, given prospects of slowing growth there was room for at 25-50 bp Fed Rate cut in 2026. Surprisingly, despite higher Crude prices, there has been an across the Curve decline in Yields in February, attributed to “flight to safety” from declines in Silver, Gold and Stocks.

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May '26 Monthly Forecast

Our May '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

May'26 EURUSD Report

In our April 2026 report (13-Apr-26, EURUSD 1.1686), we expected the Euro to rise to 1.1950 by May-26 while retaining our long-term bearishness towards 1.10 by Aug’26. The main reasons were good chances of a rise in the Dollar Index and crude prices. The markets expect the ECB to move ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'26 USDJPY Report

In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More

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Apr'26 GOI Report

In our 09-Mar-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.69%) we had warned that the sharp rise in crude due to the US-Iran conflict could push Brent toward $134, which would lift CPI toward ~6.2%, eliminating any chance of RBI easing, and potentially force tightening. This inflation shock, along with higher US yields, was expected to push the 10Yr GOI up to ... Read More

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May'26 Crude Oil Report

In our April 2026 edition (7-Apr-26, Brent @ $111.48), we expected Brent to test $89.26 by Jun-26 followed by a rise to $145.13 by Sep-26 before consolidating between the two levels for the rest of the year. As expected, Brent did see a corrective dip to ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

May '26 US Treasury Report

In our last report (28-Mar-26, UST10Yr 4.43%), we had assumed little chances of the USA being able to easily extricate itself from the US-Israel-Iran war, and we said that as long Brent remains above $80, we can look for a sharper rise in the US10Yr towards .... Read More

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