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June ' 26 US Treasury Report

In our last report (29-Apr-26, UST10Yr 4.35%), we had said that the FED was likely to leave rates unchanged, which it did. We had also said that “once Kevin Warsh comes in, the FED is more likely to cut, responding to lower growth, pushing the Near-end lower, while the Far-end rises along with Crude induced inflation”. As per the market, the expectation for FED action has moved from one rate cut to one rate hike in 2026, so our call for a rate cut could be wrong.

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Nov '26 Monthly Forecast

Our November '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

Oct'26 EURUSD Report

In our September 2026 report (4-Sep-26, EURUSD 1.1620), we revised our Euro forecast upwards due to lack of followthrough selling below 1.14. We expected the Euro to range between 1.1980-1.13 for the next 1yr. However, in line with our earlier bearish outlook, the Euro fell sharply to ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'26 USDJPY Report

In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More

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Nov'26 GOI Report

In our 06-Oct-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.19%%), we examined the possibility of the RBI not raising the Repo rate, even though 91% of the market expected it to raise. We were barking up the wrong tree as the RBI did indeed raise the Repo on 07-Oct. Thankfully, our forecasted rise in Brent to $115-120 did materialize well with Brent touching a high of $118 on 30-Oct. We also forecasted that .... Read More

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Nov'26 Crude Oil Report

In our October 2026 report (5-Oct-26, Brent @ $101.71), we had stated Brent would be structurally bullish for the long term based on the technical analysis, within which a test of $115 was expected in Oct-26, followed by a test of $134 by Dec-26 and eventually targeting $145 in 2027. In line with our expectation, Brent did test $117.45, slightly higher than our expected $115 in Oct-26. ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '26 US Treasury Report

Our last report (03-Oct-26, UST10Y 5.28%) warned of increased chances of Brent rising towards $135-145, US Core PCE rising towards 4.5-5.0% and the US10Yr rising towards 5.80% (Dec-26) and 6.00% (Aug-27). While Brent has risen to nearly $117 and the Core PCE (Aug-27) has inched up to 3.01%, we find that US Yields have fallen across .... Read More

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