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Jan ' 26 US Treasury Report

As expected in our last report (09-Dec-25, UST10Yr 4.16%) the US Fed indeed reduced the Fed Rate further by 25bp to 3.75%. We had also said that we expect another 75bp of FED Rate cuts in 2026 on the back of rising Unemployment which has come in at 4.06% for Oct-25. The Core PCE dipped to 3.02% in Sep-25, down a bit from 3.07% in August. Economic data releases continue to be delayed in the aftermath of the federal shutdown from 01-Oct to 12-Nov, clouding projections and decision making. We also expected the US10Yr to rise to 5.25% by Sep-26 and the US10Yr-Fed Rate Spread to rise towards 1%+. So far, the US10Yr-Fed Rate Spread has risen to 0.41%, up from 0.02% in November.

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January '26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan '26 Quarterly Forecast

Our January '26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'26 EURUSD Report

Brent and EU Inflation has been low in the last few months. If both the EU Inflation and Brent see a gradual rise in 2026, the upside could be ...Read More

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Jan'26 USDJPY Report

In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More

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Jan'26 GOI Report

In our 04-Dec-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.54%) we conceded that RBI may cut the Repo due to the unexpectedly sharp fall in the Oct-25 CPI to 0.25%. The RBI then indeed ... Read More

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Jan'26 Crude Oil Report

Crude prices have been steady and tilted to the downside over the last few months. Hovering near $60, can it gradually move up towards $70? Or could there be room for more fall towards $55/50? ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan '26 US Treasury Report

As expected in our last report (09-Dec-25, UST10Yr 4.16%) the US Fed indeed reduced the Fed Rate further by 25bp to 3.75%. We had also said that we expect another .... Read More

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