As expected in our last report (09-Dec-25, UST10Yr 4.16%) the US Fed indeed reduced the Fed Rate further by 25bp to 3.75%. We had also said that we expect another 75bp of FED Rate cuts in 2026 on the back of rising Unemployment which has come in at 4.06% for Oct-25. The Core PCE dipped to 3.02% in Sep-25, down a bit from 3.07% in August. Economic data releases continue to be delayed in the aftermath of the federal shutdown from 01-Oct to 12-Nov, clouding projections and decision making. We also expected the US10Yr to rise to 5.25% by Sep-26 and the US10Yr-Fed Rate Spread to rise towards 1%+. So far, the US10Yr-Fed Rate Spread has risen to 0.41%, up from 0.02% in November.
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WHAT'S NEW?
Apr '26 Quarterly Forecast
Our April '26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
WHAT'S NEW?
Apr'26 EURUSD Report
The major rally in crude prices over the last 1-month and continued elevated prices through the year could lay major impact on the currencies. With the Dollar Index and Crude prices being elevated there could be little room for Euro on the upside. However, it would be interesting to see if any resolution is arrived at between US and Iran this year itself which could lead to some stability in prices.
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 USDJPY Report
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Apr'26 GOI Report
In our 09-Mar-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.69%) we had warned that the sharp rise in crude due to the US-Iran
conflict could push Brent toward $134, which would lift CPI toward ~6.2%, eliminating any chance of RBI easing, and
potentially force tightening. This inflation shock, along with higher US yields, was expected to push the 10Yr GOI up
to ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Apr'26 Crude Oil Report
The escalation of war between US and Iran throughout March-26 has led to a rally in Brent prices to as high as $119.50, exceeding our bullish targets by a large margin, much ahead of expected time. Will it remain bullish for the coming years? ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Apr '26 US Treasury Report
In our last report (27-Feb-26, UST10Yr 4.01%), which was published just one day before the start of the US-Israel-Iran War on 28-Feb, we had continued to target 4.60% on the US10Yr based on expectations of higher Crude. At that time, we were looking for Brent to rise .... Read More