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Aug ' 26 US Treasury Report

In our last report (29-Jun-26, UST10Y 4.39%) we had followed the fall in Crude to $73 to change our US10Yr forecast from a rise to 5.10% by Sep-26 to a slight dip to 4.30% by Sep-26; and instead of the earlier forecast of a rise to 5.4% by Jan-27, the changed forecast projected Jan-27 at 4.4%. However, July has seen a sharp rise in Brent to a high of $102 on 23-July as Trump first bombarded Iran for 10-12 days, followed by a fall to $84.64 on 27-July as Trump pulled back on the bombardment. During this period, the US10Yr has risen to a high of 4.72% last Thursday (23-July), proving our call for a fall in Yields to be wrong. The correlation between Crude, Inflation Expectations and Yields continues to be strong. Headline CPI dipped to 3.46% in June from 4.17% in May, possibly prompted by the fall in Crude in June. It is to be seen how July fares.
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