In our 05-Feb-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.65%) we had reasoned that the RBI would not cut rates (they did not) as there were chances of a rise in CPI in the coming months. We concluded that the 10Yr GOI has room to rise to 6.9-7.0%. Since then, the 1-mth TBill (5.01%) fell to a low of 4.47% but has risen back from there.
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WHAT'S NEW?
May '26 Monthly Forecast
Our May '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
WHAT'S NEW?
May'26 EURUSD Report
In our April 2026 report (13-Apr-26, EURUSD 1.1686), we expected the Euro to rise to 1.1950 by May-26 while retaining our long-term bearishness towards 1.10 by Aug’26. The main reasons were good chances of a rise in the Dollar Index and crude prices. The markets expect the ECB to move ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 USDJPY Report
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
May'26 GOI Report
In our 07-Apr-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.05%) we had assigned a 65-70% probability to Crude rising towards $145 by Sep-26 and had said that this could cause the CPI to move up to 6.2% by Nov-26 and the 10Yr GOI to target 7.37% by Feb-27. Since then, Brent has seen two short-lived dips below $100 but has... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
May'26 Crude Oil Report
In our April 2026 edition (7-Apr-26, Brent @ $111.48), we expected Brent to test $89.26 by Jun-26 followed by a
rise to $145.13 by Sep-26 before consolidating between the two levels for the rest of the year. As expected, Brent did see a corrective dip to ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
June '26 US Treasury Report
In our last report (29-Apr-26, UST10Yr 4.35%), we had said that the FED was likely to leave rates unchanged, which it did. We had also said that “once Kevin Warsh comes in, the FED is more likely to cut, responding to .... Read More