In our 09-Jan-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.63%) we had wondered if actual CPI would undershoot projections; and had said that the RBI might cut rates further. We expected the Yield Curve to steepen and 10Yr GOI to have limited upside. The Dec-25 CPI rose to 1.33%. How the CPI pans out from here will need to be seen. In the meanwhile the Yield Curve has indeed steepened with the 10Yr GOI – 1Mth TBill Spread rising to 1.9%.
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WHAT'S NEW?
Feb '26 Monthly Forecast
Our February '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
WHAT'S NEW?
Feb'26 EURUSD Report
Euro unexpectedly reached 1.2083 in Jan-26 on Dollar sell-off but recovered quickly back to lower levels. Will it again attempt to rise targeting 1.24? Or will it remain below 1.20/21 now and see an eventual decline to 1.10/08? ...Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 USDJPY Report
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Feb'26 GOI Report
The 10Yr GOI (6.6472%) had risen to a high of 6.78% on 01-Feb. It has dipped a bit from there but has good Support at ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Feb'26 Crude Oil Report
Having risen sharply in Jan-26 to $70.58, will Brent again rise past $70 and continue to rise in the coming months? Or is the rise over and the price can move back towards $60? ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Feb '26 US Treasury Report
In our last report (29-Dec-25, UST10Yr 4.12%) we had said the US2Yr could fall to 3.00%. However, contrary to our expectation, the US2Yr has moved up. The US10Yr has also risen, much earlier than .... Read More