In our 09-Jan-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.63%) we had wondered if actual CPI would undershoot projections; and had said that the RBI might cut rates further. We expected the Yield Curve to steepen and 10Yr GOI to have limited upside. The Dec-25 CPI rose to 1.33%. How the CPI pans out from here will need to be seen. In the meanwhile the Yield Curve has indeed steepened with the 10Yr GOI – 1Mth TBill Spread rising to 1.9%.
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WHAT'S NEW?
May '26 Monthly Forecast
Our May '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
WHAT'S NEW?
May'26 EURUSD Report
In our April 2026 report (13-Apr-26, EURUSD 1.1686), we expected the Euro to rise to 1.1950 by May-26 while retaining our long-term bearishness towards 1.10 by Aug’26. The main reasons were good chances of a rise in the Dollar Index and crude prices. The markets expect the ECB to move ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 USDJPY Report
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
May'26 GOI Report
In our 07-Apr-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.05%) we had assigned a 65-70% probability to Crude rising towards $145 by Sep-26 and had said that this could cause the CPI to move up to 6.2% by Nov-26 and the 10Yr GOI to target 7.37% by Feb-27. Since then, Brent has seen two short-lived dips below $100 but has... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
May'26 Crude Oil Report
In our April 2026 edition (7-Apr-26, Brent @ $111.48), we expected Brent to test $89.26 by Jun-26 followed by a
rise to $145.13 by Sep-26 before consolidating between the two levels for the rest of the year. As expected, Brent did see a corrective dip to ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
June '26 US Treasury Report
In our last report (29-Apr-26, UST10Yr 4.35%), we had said that the FED was likely to leave rates unchanged, which it did. We had also said that “once Kevin Warsh comes in, the FED is more likely to cut, responding to .... Read More