In our 09-Jan-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.63%) we had wondered if actual CPI would undershoot projections; and had said that the RBI might cut rates further. We expected the Yield Curve to steepen and 10Yr GOI to have limited upside. The Dec-25 CPI rose to 1.33%. How the CPI pans out from here will need to be seen. In the meanwhile the Yield Curve has indeed steepened with the 10Yr GOI – 1Mth TBill Spread rising to 1.9%.
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WHAT'S NEW?
June '26 Monthly Forecast
Our June '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
WHAT'S NEW?
June'26 EURUSD Report
In our May 2026 report (11-May-26, EURUSD 1.1762), we expected the Euro to rise to 1.1950 by May-26 before falling towards 1.16-1.14 in the coming months. We delayed the fall to 1.10 from the earlier expected Aug-26 to Mar-27 as the Dollar Index remained within a broad range for more than expected... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 USDJPY Report
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
June'26 GOI Report
In our 11-Apr-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.03%) we had retained our bullish view on Brent towards $134 by Sep-26, while allowing for a near term dip to $95 on hopes of a US-Iran resolution. Brent fell to $89.93, lower than... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
June'26 Crude Oil Report
In our May 2026 report (4-May-26, Brent @ $110.75), we expected Brent to test $90.50 by Jul-26, followed by a
rise to $145.13 by Sep-26 and $161.93 by Dec-26. Sustained trade below $100 was expected to be seen only on a credible resolution of the US-Iran war, which looked unlikely. ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
June '26 US Treasury Report
In our last report (29-Apr-26, UST10Yr 4.35%), we had said that the FED was likely to leave rates unchanged, which it did. We had also said that “once Kevin Warsh comes in, the FED is more likely to cut, responding to .... Read More