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April ' 26 GOI Report

In our 09-Mar-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.69%) we had warned that the sharp rise in crude due to the US-Iran conflict could push Brent toward $134, which would lift CPI toward ~6.2%, eliminating any chance of RBI easing, and potentially force tightening. As it turns out, the war has entered its 6th week, Brent has risen to a high of $119.50 already, the US10Yr has risen to a high of 4.476% and the 10Yr GOI has soared to a high of 7.14%, as even a ceasefire is unsure, leave alone cessation and resolution of the war.

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April '26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Apr '26 Quarterly Forecast

Our April '26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

Apr'26 EURUSD Report

The major rally in crude prices over the last 1-month and continued elevated prices through the year could lay major impact on the currencies. With the Dollar Index and Crude prices being elevated there could be little room for Euro on the upside. However, it would be interesting to see if any resolution is arrived at between US and Iran this year itself which could lead to some stability in prices.

WHAT'S NEW?

Jan'26 USDJPY Report

In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Apr'26 GOI Report

In our 09-Mar-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.69%) we had warned that the sharp rise in crude due to the US-Iran conflict could push Brent toward $134, which would lift CPI toward ~6.2%, eliminating any chance of RBI easing, and potentially force tightening. This inflation shock, along with higher US yields, was expected to push the 10Yr GOI up to ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Apr'26 Crude Oil Report

The escalation of war between US and Iran throughout March-26 has led to a rally in Brent prices to as high as $119.50, exceeding our bullish targets by a large margin, much ahead of expected time. Will it remain bullish for the coming years? ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Apr '26 US Treasury Report

In our last report (27-Feb-26, UST10Yr 4.01%), which was published just one day before the start of the US-Israel-Iran War on 28-Feb, we had continued to target 4.60% on the US10Yr based on expectations of higher Crude. At that time, we were looking for Brent to rise .... Read More

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