Kshitij Crude Oil Forecast - Kshitij.com

Kshitij Crude Oil Forecast - Kshitij.com

Crude Oil Forecast

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Overview
The Kshitij Crude Oil Forecast takes a deep look at Technical and Fundamental Factors driving Global Crude Oil prices, and provides a macro view for the next 2 to 4 quarters.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:

Technical Price Charts of Brent, WTI, Crude/Gold, Brent-WTI spread
Backwardation / Contango in Crude futures
Changes of Positioning in Crude Derivatives (CFTC)
Global Crude Demand-Supply Balance (as per OPEC, EIA & IEA)
Change in US Crude Inventories & Global Production Levels
We have also introduced a “Data View” section for our readers to stay updated on vital data points from the world of Crude Oil.

Crude Report

November ' 24 Crude Report

In our Oct-24 report (3-Oct-24, Brent $74.98), we had expected Brent to trade within $80-60 in the coming months. We had laid out a possibility of downside extension to $55-50 in case of a US recession in the Jan-Mar’25 quarter. Else a shallow recession or slowdown could limit the downside to $60. Brent remained above the Sep-24 low of $68.68 through Oct-24 trading within the broad $81.16-69.91 region, in line with our broader mentioned range of $80-60.

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Crude Report

October ' 24 Crude Report

Brent fell sharply to test $68.68 in Sep-24 and rose sharply to $76.14 on 2nd October 2024 on an escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Where will the price move next? Will it sustain above $70 and move higher or will it fall back below $70 towards $65/60?

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Crude Report

September ' 24 Crude Report

Brent has held above $74 and risen slightly. It may continue to move within the sideways range for some more time. Thereafter, will it break higher? Or fall lower below $74? Also will US actually see a recession? Or will data improve over the next few months and reduce recession chances?

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Crude Report

August ' 24 Crude Report

Geopolitical tensions in the middle east is a cause of concern and if escalates, could keep Crude prices above $70. Recent data releases on NFP and Unemployment data have been disappointing and has increased fears of a US recession. Will a US recession happen? Or can economic data releases recover over the coming months?

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Crude Report

July ' 24 Crude Report

Brent fell to test $76.76 in the beginning of June-24 after the OPEC extended its production cuts for Q3-2024 but the price has managed to rise from there by the end of the month. How long will the $70-90 sideways range hold? Thereafter which side is the breakout likely?

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Crude Report

June ' 24 Crude Report

Brent prices have been stable within a range of $70-90 and unless a breakout is seen on either side it is difficult to take a directional stance. How long is crude expected to trade within the range? Which side will it eventually breakout?

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Crude Report

May ' 24 Crude Report

Brent crude broke above $90 briefly but could not sustain higher and instead is falling sharply towards $80. Overall broad sideways range of $70/95 has been holding for the last 1-year and may continue so for a few more months before breaking out on either side. Find detailed analysis in our May-24 Crude report

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Crude Report

April ' 24 Crude Report

After breaking above the earlier range of $70-85, Brent has moved up higher. Will it sustain and break above $90? Or will it fall back to $80/70? Find detailed analysis with 12-month numerical projections for Brent in the April 24 Monthly Crude report.

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Crude Report

March ' 24 Crude Report

Low volatility is witnessed across commodities like Copper, Aluminium, coal and Natural Gas which continue to trade within narrow ranges for the past few months and show no sign of breakout or directional clarity for the future. Crude has also been stuck in a range. But how long can it remain ranged? Thereafter which way can it breakout? Find detailed analysis of Brent price and related factors in the March report.

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Crude Report

February ' 24 Crude Report

At Kshitij, we had been expecting Brent prices to move up sharply while above $70 over the last 3-months but the price showed low volatility and has been continuing to trade within $70-90 region over the last few months. With uncertainty and concerns looming in the Middle East, there could be chances of supply disruptions in future.

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Crude Report

January ' 24 Crude Report

Crude has been witnessing volatility but within a fixed range of $90-70 for the last couple of months. Whether it would continue to trade within the mentioned range or break on either side is to be seen. Any signs of bullishness for the long term will come in on a sustained or confirmed break above $90.

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Crude Report

December ' 23 Crude Report

Global oil demand-supply Gap is projected to be stable to slightly bearish for the next 5-quarters (by EIA) but the forecast remain at elevated levels above -0.50. Will this pull up crude prices in 2024?

November '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '24 Monthly Forecast

Our November '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

November '24 EURUSD Report

WHAT'S NEW?

November '24 EURUSD Report

After Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, will the Dollar Index fall in the coming months aiding Euro strength? Or will aggressive rate cuts by the ECB and political uncertainity in Germany and France continue to put downside pressure on the Euro? ...Read More

November'24 Crude Oil Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov'24 Crude Oil Report

In our Oct-24 report (3-Oct-24, Brent $74.98), we had expected Brent to trade within $80-60 in the coming months. We had laid out a possibility of downside extension to $55-50 in case of a US recession in the Jan-Mar’25 quarter. Else a shallow recession or slowdown could limit the downside to $60. Brent remained above the Sep-24 low of $68.68 through Oct-24 trading within the broad $81.16-69.91 region, in line with our broader mentioned range of $80-60. ... Read More

November '24 US Treasury Report

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '24 US Treasury Report

In our Oct-24 report (01-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 3.79%), we had said that in contrast with history, there were no immediate signs of a US recession and the earlier it could set in might be in Jan-Mar 2025, or maybe even later. We also favored just a slowdown, or at most a shallow recession. In accordance with this, the US data in October has been mixed to strong .... Read More

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