Kshitij Crude Oil Forecast - Kshitij.com

Kshitij Crude Oil Forecast - Kshitij.com

Crude Oil Forecast

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Overview
The Kshitij Crude Oil Forecast takes a deep look at Technical and Fundamental Factors driving Global Crude Oil prices, and provides a macro view for the next 2 to 4 quarters.

Following are few of the charts we analyze in these Reports:

Technical Price Charts of Brent, WTI, Crude/Gold, Brent-WTI spread
Backwardation / Contango in Crude futures
Changes of Positioning in Crude Derivatives (CFTC)
Global Crude Demand-Supply Balance (as per OPEC, EIA & IEA)
Change in US Crude Inventories & Global Production Levels
We have also introduced a “Data View” section for our readers to stay updated on vital data points from the world of Crude Oil.

March ' 25 Crude Report

Crude is headed towards the lower end of the sideways range. Will the range continue to hold and push the crude prices up with a limited downside in the near term? Or can prices break below the support levels and establish any fresh lows in the coming months?

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Crude Report

February ' 25 Crude Report

In our last report (10-Jan-25, Brent $76.95), we expected Brent to remain between $80-60 region with an initial test of $80 in Jan-25 itself before falling to $60 by Jun-25. Thereafter the price was expected to rise slowly in the second half of the year. Brent rose to a high of $82.63, past our Range Top of $80, but has fallen back below $80 from there.

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Crude Report

January ' 25 Crude Report

With the US economic data strong and stable, the earlier expected US slowdown has not played out, resulting in the crude price trading higher while above $70 (Brent). While there is uncertainty in the long-term direction for crude, as long as it stays within the range of $67-80 (Brent), we have kept our earlier forecasts intact this month. Supply from the OPEC countries is also likely to remain tight for the next couple of months. Additionally, a rising Dollar could keep the crude at the higher end of its sideways range for now.

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Crude Report

December ' 24 Crude Report

With recent US economic data coming out strong, there has been reduced chances for an immediate economic slowdown in the US. Will this reduce chances of a decline in the crude prices and continue to keep it ranged? Or can there still be a significant movement in crude in the coming months?

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Crude Report

November ' 24 Crude Report

In our Oct-24 report (3-Oct-24, Brent $74.98), we had expected Brent to trade within $80-60 in the coming months. We had laid out a possibility of downside extension to $55-50 in case of a US recession in the Jan-Mar’25 quarter. Else a shallow recession or slowdown could limit the downside to $60. Brent remained above the Sep-24 low of $68.68 through Oct-24 trading within the broad $81.16-69.91 region, in line with our broader mentioned range of $80-60.

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Crude Report

October ' 24 Crude Report

Brent fell sharply to test $68.68 in Sep-24 and rose sharply to $76.14 on 2nd October 2024 on an escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Where will the price move next? Will it sustain above $70 and move higher or will it fall back below $70 towards $65/60?

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Crude Report

September ' 24 Crude Report

Brent has held above $74 and risen slightly. It may continue to move within the sideways range for some more time. Thereafter, will it break higher? Or fall lower below $74? Also will US actually see a recession? Or will data improve over the next few months and reduce recession chances?

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Crude Report

August ' 24 Crude Report

Geopolitical tensions in the middle east is a cause of concern and if escalates, could keep Crude prices above $70. Recent data releases on NFP and Unemployment data have been disappointing and has increased fears of a US recession. Will a US recession happen? Or can economic data releases recover over the coming months?

March '25 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Mar '25 Monthly Forecast

Our March '25 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

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