74% of our Dollar-Rupee forecasts are reliable

This is based on statistical analysis of a 18+ years track record since 2006. Read on below for an overview of our performance.

More "Good" than "Bad"

We rate our monthly Dollar-Rupee forecasts as either Good [+1] or OK [0] or Bad [-1] based on a combination of the above two criteria and that is how we say our forecasts have a reliability of 74%.

Kshitij USDINR forecasts beat market consensus

Over the years, our forecasts have been closer to the actual market movement than the market consensus. This is why our Clients who have "Been There/ Done That" find our forecasts to be more reliable.

How much of 12-month movement in USDINR was captured by Kshitij.com

Can a Dollar-Rupee forecast tell you, reliably, where the market will be 12 months from today? Isn’t that something you need? Our forecasts have been right on the ball on this for every month since 2018, as seen in the chart above.

Our Forecast Reliability has increased over time

Our reliability has improved over the years from 35% in 2006 and 40% in 2008 to 74% now.

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Our forecasts are evaluated under 2 criteria

1. Directional Accuracy

How many times do we get the direction right? Earlier, during 2006-2008 we were correct only 37% of the times. Since 2008, however, we are right on average 57% of the time.

2. Numerical Accuracy

This measures how far, numerically, our forecasts are from the actual rates that prevail later.

Our current Forecast % error is at an all time low of 0.32% down from our average error of 4.04%.

We have been providing Reliability for the last 27 years and have been ranked #1 worldwide by Bloomberg for our Rupee forecasts in Sep 2018 and #4 for Euro Forecasts in March 2018. We have been ranked recently #3 by Bloomberg for Sep’24 USDINR Forecasts. You may read more about that here.

Ranked #3 worldwide by Bloomberg for USDINR Forecast

Ranked #5 worldwide by Bloomberg for EURUSD Forecast

November '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '24 Monthly Forecast

Our November '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

November '24 EURUSD Report

After Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, will the Dollar Index fall in the coming months aiding Euro strength? Or will aggressive rate cuts by the ECB and political uncertainity in Germany and France continue to put downside pressure on the Euro? ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov'24 Crude Oil Report

In our Oct-24 report (3-Oct-24, Brent $74.98), we had expected Brent to trade within $80-60 in the coming months. We had laid out a possibility of downside extension to $55-50 in case of a US recession in the Jan-Mar’25 quarter. Else a shallow recession or slowdown could limit the downside to $60. Brent remained above the Sep-24 low of $68.68 through Oct-24 trading within the broad $81.16-69.91 region, in line with our broader mentioned range of $80-60. ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '24 US Treasury Report

In our Oct-24 report (01-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 3.79%), we had said that in contrast with history, there were no immediate signs of a US recession and the earlier it could set in might be in Jan-Mar 2025, or maybe even later. We also favored just a slowdown, or at most a shallow recession. In accordance with this, the US data in October has been mixed to strong .... Read More

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