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September ' 24 US Treasury Report

In our Aug-24 report (31-Jul-24, US10Yr @ 4.14%), we were looking for the US10Yr to consolidated between 4.1-4.4% in August, before falling to 4.0-3.8% by Sep-Oct. As it turns out, there was no consolidation in August and the 10Yr has already fallen to 3.8%. The 2Yr has also fallen below 4% and the 10-2Yr Spread (-0.03%) hovers just below 0%. Powell has signalled a rate cut in September as the Unemployment Rate has risen to 4.3% and is now in the FED’s radar, more than Inflation. The market is grappling with the questions of recession – when it will kick in, how long and deep it will be etc.

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Mar '25 Monthly Forecast

Our March '25 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

Mar'25 EURUSD Report

The sharp fall in the Dollar Index over the last couple of months especially triggered by tariff announcements by Trump has weighed on most global currencies. Euro has correspondingly rallied much faster and quicker than expected. Will the Dollar Index pause its fall now or continue to decline? ...Read More

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Mar'25 Crude Oil Report

Crude is headed towards the lower end of the sideways range. Will the range continue to hold and push the crude prices up with a limited downside in the near term? Or can prices break below the support levels and establish any fresh lows in the coming months? ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Mar '25 US Treasury Report

As per the more preferred path in our last report (03-Feb-25, UST10Yr 4.55%) we were looking for the US10Yr to rise to 5.25% by May-25. This does not seem to be working out just. Rather, the alternative less preferred path, wherein the US10Yr could fall in Feb-25 itself .... Read More

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