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US Treasury Report
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September ' 24 US Treasury Report

In our Aug-24 report (31-Jul-24, US10Yr @ 4.14%), we were looking for the US10Yr to consolidated between 4.1-4.4% in August, before falling to 4.0-3.8% by Sep-Oct. As it turns out, there was no consolidation in August and the 10Yr has already fallen to 3.8%. The 2Yr has also fallen below 4% and the 10-2Yr Spread (-0.03%) hovers just below 0%. Powell has signalled a rate cut in September as the Unemployment Rate has risen to 4.3% and is now in the FED’s radar, more than Inflation. The market is grappling with the questions of recession – when it will kick in, how long and deep it will be etc.
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