In our Aug-24 report (31-Jul-24, US10Yr @ 4.14%), we were looking for the US10Yr to consolidated between 4.1-4.4% in August, before falling to 4.0-3.8% by Sep-Oct. As it turns out, there was no consolidation in August and the 10Yr has already fallen to 3.8%. The 2Yr has also fallen below 4% and the 10-2Yr Spread (-0.03%) hovers just below 0%. Powell has signalled a rate cut in September as the Unemployment Rate has risen to 4.3% and is now in the FED’s radar, more than Inflation. The market is grappling with the questions of recession – when it will kick in, how long and deep it will be etc.
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WHAT'S NEW?
Nov '24 Monthly Forecast
Our November '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
WHAT'S NEW?
November '24 EURUSD Report
After Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, will the Dollar Index fall in the coming months aiding Euro strength? Or will aggressive rate cuts by the ECB and political uncertainity in Germany and France continue to put downside pressure on the Euro? ...Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Nov'24 Crude Oil Report
In our Oct-24 report (3-Oct-24, Brent $74.98), we had expected Brent to trade within $80-60 in the coming months. We had laid out a possibility of downside extension to $55-50 in case of a US recession in the Jan-Mar’25 quarter. Else a shallow recession or slowdown could limit the downside to $60. Brent remained above the Sep-24 low of $68.68 through Oct-24 trading within the broad $81.16-69.91 region, in line with our broader mentioned range of $80-60. ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Nov '24 US Treasury Report
In our Oct-24 report (01-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 3.79%), we had said that in contrast with history, there were no immediate signs of a US recession and the earlier it could set in might be in Jan-Mar 2025, or maybe even later. We also favored just a slowdown, or at most a shallow recession. In accordance with this, the US data in October has been mixed to strong .... Read More