Since our Sep-24 report (29-Aug-24, US10Yr @ 3.84%), Crude (WTI $68.22) has remained below earlier support now resistance; Inflation is mixed (PCE down a bit from 2.65% to 2.37% but Core PCE up a bit to 2.82% to 2.86%); surprisingly Unemployment has inched lower from 4.3% to 4.2% and the US Fed has cut the FFR by 50bp to 5.0%. The Yield Curve has steepened with the US 10-2 Yield Spread moving up from -0.03% to +0.18%.
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WHAT'S NEW?
Feb '25 Monthly Forecast
Our February '25 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
WHAT'S NEW?
Feb'25 EURUSD Report
In our Jan-25 edition (18-Jan-25, EURUSD @ 1.0287), we expected the Euro to come down towards Parity by Mar-25 while below 1.0450 and then rise to 1.06 by Dec-25. In actuality, the EURUSD stayed above 1.025 and rose to 1.0534. ...Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Feb'25 Crude Oil Report
In our last report (10-Jan-25, Brent $76.95), we expected Brent to remain between $80-60 region with an initial test of $80 in Jan-25 itself before falling to $60 by Jun-25. Thereafter the price was expected to rise slowly in the second half of the year. Brent rose to a high of $82.63, past our Range Top of $80, but has fallen back below $80 from there. ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Feb '25 US Treasury Report
Assuming greater chances of a slowdown rather than a recession, we project the US10Yr to rise towards 5.25% (May-25), followed by a dip towards 4.55% (Jul-25) and then another rise back towards .... Read More