Since our Sep-24 report (29-Aug-24, US10Yr @ 3.84%), Crude (WTI $68.22) has remained below earlier support now resistance; Inflation is mixed (PCE down a bit from 2.65% to 2.37% but Core PCE up a bit to 2.82% to 2.86%); surprisingly Unemployment has inched lower from 4.3% to 4.2% and the US Fed has cut the FFR by 50bp to 5.0%. The Yield Curve has steepened with the US 10-2 Yield Spread moving up from -0.03% to +0.18%.
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WHAT'S NEW?
Jan '25 Quarterly Forecast
Our January '25 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'25 EURUSD Report
In our Dec-24 edition (12-Dec-24, EURUSD @ 1.0505), we expected the Euro to limit its downside to 1.0333 and bounce back towards 1.0650-1.08 by Feb-25 followed by an eventual rise to 1.09-1.11 by mid of 2025. But contrary to our expectations, Euro broke below 1.0333 and sustained lower towards 1.01. ...Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'25 Crude Oil Report
With the US economic data strong and stable, the earlier expected US slowdown has not played out, resulting in the crude price trading higher while above $70 (Brent). While there is uncertainty in the long-term direction for crude, as long as it stays within the range of $67-80 (Brent), we have kept our earlier forecasts intact this month. Supply from the OPEC countries is also likely to remain tight for the next couple of months. Additionally, a rising Dollar could keep the crude at the higher end of its sideways range for now. ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan '25 US Treasury Report
Yields have risen across the Curve in line with the anticipations in our Dec-24 report (30-Nov-24, UST10Y 4.18%).Both the US5Yr and US10Yr have risen well as expected. Even the US2Yr has risen, but the rise is a little .... Read More