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November ' 24 US Treasury Report

In our Oct-24 report (01-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 3.79%), we had said that in contrast with history, there were no immediate signs of a US recession and the earlier it could set in might be in Jan-Mar 2025, or maybe even later. We also favored just a slowdown, or at most a shallow recession. In accordance with this, the US data in October has been mixed to strong, with Unemployment falling and Average Hourly Earnings and Consumer Confidence rising. WTI rose to $77.50 but is falling again, retaining chances of a decline towards $65-63. Our forecasts of the US2Yr and US10Yr falling to 3.3% and 3.5% respectively have been wrong as the entire Yield Curve has risen strongly through October.

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WHAT'S NEW?

Mar '25 Monthly Forecast

Our March '25 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

Mar'25 EURUSD Report

The sharp fall in the Dollar Index over the last couple of months especially triggered by tariff announcements by Trump has weighed on most global currencies. Euro has correspondingly rallied much faster and quicker than expected. Will the Dollar Index pause its fall now or continue to decline? ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Mar'25 Crude Oil Report

Crude is headed towards the lower end of the sideways range. Will the range continue to hold and push the crude prices up with a limited downside in the near term? Or can prices break below the support levels and establish any fresh lows in the coming months? ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Mar '25 US Treasury Report

As per the more preferred path in our last report (03-Feb-25, UST10Yr 4.55%) we were looking for the US10Yr to rise to 5.25% by May-25. This does not seem to be working out just. Rather, the alternative less preferred path, wherein the US10Yr could fall in Feb-25 itself .... Read More

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