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May ' 24 US Treasury Report

In our last report (26-Mar-24, US10Yr @ 4.25%), we were looking for the US10Yr to fall towards 3.8-3.5%, based on expectations of a fall in Crude and softer US data. However, we were wrong on both counts as Brent Crude ($86.33) rose to a high of $92.18 and US data, especially inflation data, came out much stronger than expected. This has drastically reduced the market’s expectations of Fed rate cuts to only one cut by Dec-24 as against the March FOMC dot plot of 3 cuts and in sharp contrast to an expectation of 7 rate cuts back in Dec-23. As a result the US2Yr has risen to 5.04% and the US10Yr has risen to 4.69%, clearly proving our expectation of a fall to 3.8-3.5% to be wrong.

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November '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '24 Monthly Forecast

Our November '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

November '24 EURUSD Report

After Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, will the Dollar Index fall in the coming months aiding Euro strength? Or will aggressive rate cuts by the ECB and political uncertainity in Germany and France continue to put downside pressure on the Euro? ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov'24 Crude Oil Report

In our Oct-24 report (3-Oct-24, Brent $74.98), we had expected Brent to trade within $80-60 in the coming months. We had laid out a possibility of downside extension to $55-50 in case of a US recession in the Jan-Mar’25 quarter. Else a shallow recession or slowdown could limit the downside to $60. Brent remained above the Sep-24 low of $68.68 through Oct-24 trading within the broad $81.16-69.91 region, in line with our broader mentioned range of $80-60. ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '24 US Treasury Report

In our Oct-24 report (01-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 3.79%), we had said that in contrast with history, there were no immediate signs of a US recession and the earlier it could set in might be in Jan-Mar 2025, or maybe even later. We also favored just a slowdown, or at most a shallow recession. In accordance with this, the US data in October has been mixed to strong .... Read More

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