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May ' 24 US Treasury Report

In our last report (26-Mar-24, US10Yr @ 4.25%), we were looking for the US10Yr to fall towards 3.8-3.5%, based on expectations of a fall in Crude and softer US data. However, we were wrong on both counts as Brent Crude ($86.33) rose to a high of $92.18 and US data, especially inflation data, came out much stronger than expected. This has drastically reduced the market’s expectations of Fed rate cuts to only one cut by Dec-24 as against the March FOMC dot plot of 3 cuts and in sharp contrast to an expectation of 7 rate cuts back in Dec-23. As a result the US2Yr has risen to 5.04% and the US10Yr has risen to 4.69%, clearly proving our expectation of a fall to 3.8-3.5% to be wrong.

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September '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Sep '24 Monthly Forecast

Our September '24 Monthly Dollar-Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

September '24 EURUSD Report

With EU Inflation within reach of its 2% target, will ECB cut rates today ahead of the FED policy meeting next week? Or will it skip and target a rate cut in Oct-24? ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Oct'24 Crude Oil Report

Brent fell sharply to test $68.68 in Sep-24 and rose sharply to $76.14 on 2nd October 2024 on an escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Where will the price move next? Will it sustain above $70 and move higher or will it fall back below $70 towards $65/60? ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Oct '24 US Treasury Report

Since our Sep-24 report (29-Aug-24, US10Yr @ 3.84%), Crude (WTI $68.22) has remained below earlier support now resistance; Inflation is mixed (PCE down a bit from 2.65% to 2.37% but Core PCE up a bit to 2.82% to 2.86%); surprisingly Unemployment has inched lower .... Read More

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