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May ' 24 US Treasury Report

In our last report (26-Mar-24, US10Yr @ 4.25%), we were looking for the US10Yr to fall towards 3.8-3.5%, based on expectations of a fall in Crude and softer US data. However, we were wrong on both counts as Brent Crude ($86.33) rose to a high of $92.18 and US data, especially inflation data, came out much stronger than expected. This has drastically reduced the market’s expectations of Fed rate cuts to only one cut by Dec-24 as against the March FOMC dot plot of 3 cuts and in sharp contrast to an expectation of 7 rate cuts back in Dec-23. As a result the US2Yr has risen to 5.04% and the US10Yr has risen to 4.69%, clearly proving our expectation of a fall to 3.8-3.5% to be wrong.

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December '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Dec '24 Monthly Forecast

Our December '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

Dec'24 EURUSD Report

In line with our alternate view in our Nov-24 edition (13-Nov-24, EURUSD @ 1.0615), Euro did break below 1.06 and fell to a low of 1.0333 in Nov-24. However, it could not sustain at the lows and have bounced back well to ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Dec'24 Crude Oil Report

With recent US economic data coming out strong, there has been reduced chances for an immediate economic slowdown in the US. Will this reduce chances of a decline in the crude prices and continue to keep it ranged? Or can there still be a significant movement in crude in the coming months? ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Dec '24 US Treasury Report

In our Nov-24 report (31-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 4.26%), we had said that it was possible that the FED may cut rates by at least another 50bp in 2024; that the fall in the US10Yr from 5.02% is over and an immediate dip from 4.4% to 4.0-3.8% could give way to an eventual rise past 4.8% towards 5.0%. In line with that, the FED did cut rates by 25bp in November. Although the US 10Yr rose to .... Read More

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