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May ' 24 US Treasury Report

In our last report (26-Mar-24, US10Yr @ 4.25%), we were looking for the US10Yr to fall towards 3.8-3.5%, based on expectations of a fall in Crude and softer US data. However, we were wrong on both counts as Brent Crude ($86.33) rose to a high of $92.18 and US data, especially inflation data, came out much stronger than expected. This has drastically reduced the market’s expectations of Fed rate cuts to only one cut by Dec-24 as against the March FOMC dot plot of 3 cuts and in sharp contrast to an expectation of 7 rate cuts back in Dec-23. As a result the US2Yr has risen to 5.04% and the US10Yr has risen to 4.69%, clearly proving our expectation of a fall to 3.8-3.5% to be wrong.

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August '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

August '24 Monthly Forecast

Our August '24 Monthly Dollar-Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

August '24 EURUSD Report

The recent fall in the USDJPY from 162 has been a major trigger for Dollar weakness over the past few weeks which has taken Euro higher as well. Will Dollar Yen continue to decline in the coming months and remain a major influencer on the FX markets for other currencies as well? In that case, will it continue to support Euro strength and Dollar weakness going ahead? ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Sep'24 Crude Oil Report

Brent has held above $74 and risen slightly. It may continue to move within the sideways range for some more time. Thereafter, will it break higher? Or fall lower below $74? Also will US actually see a recession? Or will data improve over the next few months and reduce recession chances? ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Sep '24 US Treasury Report

In our Aug-24 report (31-Jul-24, US10Yr @ 4.14%), we were looking for the US10Yr to consolidated between 4.1-4.4% in August, before falling to 4.0-3.8% by Sep-Oct. As it turns out, there was no consolidation in August and the 10Yr has already fallen to 3.8%. Powell has signalled a rate cut in September as .... Read More

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