In our last report (26-Mar-24, US10Yr @ 4.25%), we were looking for the US10Yr to fall towards 3.8-3.5%, based on expectations of a fall in Crude and softer US data. However, we were wrong on both counts as Brent Crude ($86.33) rose to a high of $92.18 and US data, especially inflation data, came out much stronger than expected. This has drastically reduced the market’s expectations of Fed rate cuts to only one cut by Dec-24 as against the March FOMC dot plot of 3 cuts and in sharp contrast to an expectation of 7 rate cuts back in Dec-23. As a result the US2Yr has risen to 5.04% and the US10Yr has risen to 4.69%, clearly proving our expectation of a fall to 3.8-3.5% to be wrong.
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Sep '24 Monthly Forecast
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September '24 EURUSD Report
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Oct'24 Crude Oil Report
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Oct '24 US Treasury Report
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