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March ' 24 US Treasury Report

In our last report (26-Jan-24, US10Yr @ 4.14%), we had suggested that the rise in Yields since 2020 could be like the one seen in 1967-1972, with more upside possible in the long term going into 2025. Within that we also said that the fall in US10Yr since 5.01% (Oct-23)could be an A-B-C correction. Within that, again, the immediate ongoing rally from 3.82% (28-Dec) could be the B-leg which might extend up to 4.5% and thereafter the C-leg (yet to commence) can target 3.5%. The relation between CPI and WTI Y/Y% was highlighted. The Crude outlook for the next 12 months was shared. Since then, Yields have actually moved up further in line with the near term expectations. The FOMC kept rates unchanged on 31-Jan. Economic data has been mixed.

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December '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Dec '24 Monthly Forecast

Our December '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

Dec'24 EURUSD Report

In line with our alternate view in our Nov-24 edition (13-Nov-24, EURUSD @ 1.0615), Euro did break below 1.06 and fell to a low of 1.0333 in Nov-24. However, it could not sustain at the lows and have bounced back well to ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Dec'24 Crude Oil Report

With recent US economic data coming out strong, there has been reduced chances for an immediate economic slowdown in the US. Will this reduce chances of a decline in the crude prices and continue to keep it ranged? Or can there still be a significant movement in crude in the coming months? ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Dec '24 US Treasury Report

In our Nov-24 report (31-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 4.26%), we had said that it was possible that the FED may cut rates by at least another 50bp in 2024; that the fall in the US10Yr from 5.02% is over and an immediate dip from 4.4% to 4.0-3.8% could give way to an eventual rise past 4.8% towards 5.0%. In line with that, the FED did cut rates by 25bp in November. Although the US 10Yr rose to .... Read More

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