In our last report (26-Jan-24, US10Yr @ 4.14%), we had suggested that the rise in Yields since 2020 could be like the one seen in 1967-1972, with more upside possible in the long term going into 2025. Within that we also said that the fall in US10Yr since 5.01% (Oct-23)could be an A-B-C correction. Within that, again, the immediate ongoing rally from 3.82% (28-Dec) could be the B-leg which might extend up to 4.5% and thereafter the C-leg (yet to commence) can target 3.5%. The relation between CPI and WTI Y/Y% was highlighted. The Crude outlook for the next 12 months was shared. Since then, Yields have actually moved up further in line with the near term expectations. The FOMC kept rates unchanged on 31-Jan. Economic data has been mixed.
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July '24 Quarterly Forecast
Our July '24 Quarterly Dollar-Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
WHAT'S NEW?
July '24 EURUSD Report
The Euro has risen well in July, especially after a lower US CPI data as the Dollar Index declined sharply. Will the Euro continue its current rise beyond 1.09? EURJPY has fallen sharply from 175.42 last week. Will it continue to decline from here? Or could there be some more upside to 180/182 before reversing? ...Read More
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July'24 Crude Oil Report
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July '24 US Treasury Report
In our Jun-24 report (29-May-24, US10Yr @ 4.57%), we were looking for the US10Yr to dip to 4.1% in June and bounce back to 4.6% by October. In line with the short-term view, Yields have come down across the Curve and the US10Yr saw a low of 4.20% on 17-Jun. We had also said that .... Read More