In our last report (01-May-24, US10Yr @ 4.69%), we were looking for the US2Yr to dip towards 4.5% and the US10Yr to dip towards 4.2%. In line with our expectation, the 2Yr dipped to a low of 4.71% and the 10Yr came down to a low of 4.31% after the US Unemployment rose to 3.9% and Crude prices came down a bit and remained subdued through May till now. Thereafter, the US2Yr has risen back quite a bit after the dip to 4.71% and the US10Yr has also bounced a bit, as the market is debating whether the FED will deliver two rate cuts or one rate cut or none at all in 2024, and when it will begin to cut rates, if it does.
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WHAT'S NEW?
Dec '24 Monthly Forecast
Our December '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
WHAT'S NEW?
Dec'24 EURUSD Report
In line with our alternate view in our Nov-24 edition (13-Nov-24, EURUSD @ 1.0615), Euro did break below 1.06 and fell to a low of 1.0333 in Nov-24. However, it could not sustain at the lows and have bounced back well to ...Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Dec'24 Crude Oil Report
With recent US economic data coming out strong, there has been reduced chances for an immediate economic slowdown in the US. Will this reduce chances of a decline in the crude prices and continue to keep it ranged? Or can there still be a significant movement in crude in the coming months? ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Dec '24 US Treasury Report
In our Nov-24 report (31-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 4.26%), we had said that it was possible that the FED may cut rates by at least another 50bp in 2024; that the fall in the US10Yr from 5.02% is over and an immediate dip from 4.4% to 4.0-3.8% could give way to an eventual rise past 4.8% towards 5.0%. In line with that, the FED did cut rates by 25bp in November. Although the US 10Yr rose to .... Read More