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June ' 24 US Treasury Report

In our last report (01-May-24, US10Yr @ 4.69%), we were looking for the US2Yr to dip towards 4.5% and the US10Yr to dip towards 4.2%. In line with our expectation, the 2Yr dipped to a low of 4.71% and the 10Yr came down to a low of 4.31% after the US Unemployment rose to 3.9% and Crude prices came down a bit and remained subdued through May till now. Thereafter, the US2Yr has risen back quite a bit after the dip to 4.71% and the US10Yr has also bounced a bit, as the market is debating whether the FED will deliver two rate cuts or one rate cut or none at all in 2024, and when it will begin to cut rates, if it does.

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November '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '24 Monthly Forecast

Our November '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

November '24 EURUSD Report

After Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, will the Dollar Index fall in the coming months aiding Euro strength? Or will aggressive rate cuts by the ECB and political uncertainity in Germany and France continue to put downside pressure on the Euro? ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov'24 Crude Oil Report

In our Oct-24 report (3-Oct-24, Brent $74.98), we had expected Brent to trade within $80-60 in the coming months. We had laid out a possibility of downside extension to $55-50 in case of a US recession in the Jan-Mar’25 quarter. Else a shallow recession or slowdown could limit the downside to $60. Brent remained above the Sep-24 low of $68.68 through Oct-24 trading within the broad $81.16-69.91 region, in line with our broader mentioned range of $80-60. ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '24 US Treasury Report

In our Oct-24 report (01-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 3.79%), we had said that in contrast with history, there were no immediate signs of a US recession and the earlier it could set in might be in Jan-Mar 2025, or maybe even later. We also favored just a slowdown, or at most a shallow recession. In accordance with this, the US data in October has been mixed to strong .... Read More

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