In our Apr-23 report (27-Mar-23, US10Yr @ 3.44%) we had said that (A) the FED’s 2% inflation target is an arbitrary number which was possibly based on the benign post-1980 world of economic co-operation and declining inflation and that (B) it would seem difficult for CPI to keep coming down towards the Fed’s targets of 3.3% (2023), 2.5% (2024) and 2.1% (2025).It is good to see our view being echoed by marquee names like Mohamed A. El-Erian and Gita Gopinath, First MD of IMF.
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Sep'23 Monthly Forecast
Our September'23 Monthly Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
Sep '23 EURUSD Report
News from the ECB on hinting at possible pause in rate hikes earlier in July and then in September along with a higher US NFP data in early Sep-23 has aided Euro to fall and remain below 1.08 ...Read More
Sep'23 Crude Oil Report
Brent has been in a broad sideways range of $70-90 for quite some months now and has recently moved up towards the upper end of the range. Will it hold below $90 or can it break on the upside? ... Read More
Sep'23 US Treasury Report
We have been examining the market’s Inflation Expectation in our reports since May-23 and have said that the Breakeven Inflation Expectation can possibly remain above 2% and slowly rise towards 2.50-3.0% in the coming months. It is up from 2.18% in Apr-23. Can it rise further? .... Read More