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April ' 24 US Treasury Report

In our last report (23-Feb-24, US10Yr @ 4.25%), we had laid out our near term view (that the ongoing rise in the US10Yr may/ may not extend up to 4.5%), our medium term view (that the US10Yr can still fall to 3.5%) and our long term view of a rise towards 5.0% and higher going into 2025. Since then, inflation data has continued to be mixed (Feb CPI 3.17% up from 3.11% in Jan, but Feb Core PCE 2.85% down from 2.94% in Jan); Crude has risen (Brent $86.33, WTI $82.14) and the FOMC dot plot has reiterated three rate cuts in 2024. The Yield Curve has steepened a bit with the 2Yr down from 4.67% to 4.60% while the 10Yr is 4.24% as compared to 4.25% earlier.

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November '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '24 Monthly Forecast

Our November '24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

November '24 EURUSD Report

After Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, will the Dollar Index fall in the coming months aiding Euro strength? Or will aggressive rate cuts by the ECB and political uncertainity in Germany and France continue to put downside pressure on the Euro? ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov'24 Crude Oil Report

In our Oct-24 report (3-Oct-24, Brent $74.98), we had expected Brent to trade within $80-60 in the coming months. We had laid out a possibility of downside extension to $55-50 in case of a US recession in the Jan-Mar’25 quarter. Else a shallow recession or slowdown could limit the downside to $60. Brent remained above the Sep-24 low of $68.68 through Oct-24 trading within the broad $81.16-69.91 region, in line with our broader mentioned range of $80-60. ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Nov '24 US Treasury Report

In our Oct-24 report (01-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 3.79%), we had said that in contrast with history, there were no immediate signs of a US recession and the earlier it could set in might be in Jan-Mar 2025, or maybe even later. We also favored just a slowdown, or at most a shallow recession. In accordance with this, the US data in October has been mixed to strong .... Read More

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