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US Treasury Report
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April ' 24 US Treasury Report

In our last report (23-Feb-24, US10Yr @ 4.25%), we had laid out our near term view (that the ongoing rise in the US10Yr may/ may not extend up to 4.5%), our medium term view (that the US10Yr can still fall to 3.5%) and our long term view of a rise towards 5.0% and higher going into 2025. Since then, inflation data has continued to be mixed (Feb CPI 3.17% up from 3.11% in Jan, but Feb Core PCE 2.85% down from 2.94% in Jan); Crude has risen (Brent $86.33, WTI $82.14) and the FOMC dot plot has reiterated three rate cuts in 2024. The Yield Curve has steepened a bit with the 2Yr down from 4.67% to 4.60% while the 10Yr is 4.24% as compared to 4.25% earlier.
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