In our last report (23-Feb-24, US10Yr @ 4.25%), we had laid out our near term view (that the ongoing rise in the US10Yr may/ may not extend up to 4.5%), our medium term view (that the US10Yr can still fall to 3.5%) and our long term view of a rise towards 5.0% and higher going into 2025. Since then, inflation data has continued to be mixed (Feb CPI 3.17% up from 3.11% in Jan, but Feb Core PCE 2.85% down from 2.94% in Jan); Crude has risen (Brent $86.33, WTI $82.14) and the FOMC dot plot has reiterated three rate cuts in 2024. The Yield Curve has steepened a bit with the 2Yr down from 4.67% to 4.60% while the 10Yr is 4.24% as compared to 4.25% earlier.
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WHAT'S NEW?
July '24 Quarterly Forecast
Our July '24 Quarterly Dollar-Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
WHAT'S NEW?
July '24 EURUSD Report
The Euro has risen well in July, especially after a lower US CPI data as the Dollar Index declined sharply. Will the Euro continue its current rise beyond 1.09? EURJPY has fallen sharply from 175.42 last week. Will it continue to decline from here? Or could there be some more upside to 180/182 before reversing? ...Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
July'24 Crude Oil Report
Brent fell to test $76.76 in the beginning of June-24 after the OPEC extended its production cuts for Q3-2024 but the price has managed to rise from there by the end of the month. How long will the $70-90 sideways range hold? Thereafter which side is the breakout likely? ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
July '24 US Treasury Report
In our Jun-24 report (29-May-24, US10Yr @ 4.57%), we were looking for the US10Yr to dip to 4.1% in June and bounce back to 4.6% by October. In line with the short-term view, Yields have come down across the Curve and the US10Yr saw a low of 4.20% on 17-Jun. We had also said that .... Read More