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1/1 ErrorException in ReportController.php line 120: Undefined index: may-20

  1. in ReportController.php line 120
  2. at HandleExceptions->handleError(8, 'Undefined index: may-20', '/home/kshitij/kshitij-code-L53/app/Http/Controllers/ReportController.php', 120, array('whichmonth' => 'may-20', 'ustSettings' => array('mar-24' => array('month' => 'March \' 24', 'description' => 'In our last report (26-Jan-24, US10Yr @ 4.14%), we had suggested that the rise in Yields since 2020 could be like the one seen in 1967-1972, with more upside possible in the long term going into 2025. Within that we also said that the fall in US10Yr since 5.01% (Oct-23)could be an A-B-C correction. Within that, again, the immediate ongoing rally from 3.82% (28-Dec) could be the B-leg which might extend up to 4.5% and thereafter the C-leg (yet to commence) can target 3.5%. The relation between CPI and WTI Y/Y% was highlighted. The Crude outlook for the next 12 months was shared. Since then, Yields have actually moved up further in line with the near term expectations. The FOMC kept rates unchanged on 31-Jan. Economic data has been mixed.', 'report' => 'https://kshitij.com/images/us-treasuries-report-mar24.jpg', 'paylink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/r0OBeChmb', 'abroadlink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/IpKDPkW', 'package' => 'true'), 'feb-24' => array('month' => 'February \' 24', 'description' => 'In our last report (26-Dec-23, US 10Yr @ 3.88%) we were looking for US Yields to dip to 4.04% and 3.5% on the US2Yr and US10Yr respectively in the near term. Instead, the US2Yr remained more or less steady while the US10Yr rose a decent bit as the market found that it was possibly a little ahead of the FED in its expectations of when and how much the FED would cut rates in 2024. Currently both the market and the FOMC Members seem to be debating this question.', 'report' => 'https://kshitij.com/images/us-treasuries-report-feb24.jpg', 'paylink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/b7oBfkr', 'abroadlink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/fIC0IYZ48', 'package' => ''), 'jan-24' => array('month' => 'January \' 24', 'description' => 'In our last report (27-Nov-23, US 10Yr @ 4.425%) we were looking for US Yields to rise to 5.10% in the near term before falling again in H1-24. However, that did not happen and instead the Yields continued to fall without respite. In our Dec-23 report, we had become bullish on Crude compared to our Nov-23 report, but instead of rising, Brent broke below $80 to see a low of $72.29 before bouncing back a bit. In a bit of a “goldilocks” development, the Nov-23 Unemployment surprised by dipping to 3.7% from 3.9% in Oct-23 while the Nov-23 CPI dipped further to 3.12%.', 'report' => 'https://kshitij.com/images/us-treasuries-report-jan24.jpg', 'paylink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/x9aPXxwqwC', 'abroadlink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/ICCOHRx', 'package' => ''), 'dec-23' => array('month' => 'December \' 23', 'description' => 'In our last report (24-Oct-23, US 10Yr @ 4.85%) we had said that Brent can range between $80-100, the US 10Yr and 2Yr Yields can dip and the 10-2Yr Spread can rise. As it turns out, (A) Brent ($81.62) indeed saw a fall to the lower end of the $80-100 range and a false dip to $76.60 and has bounced back up from there, so the $80-100 range is still in play, (B) US Yields did indeed dip as expected, but the 10-2Yr Spread fell instead of rising.', 'report' => 'https://kshitij.com/images/us-treasuries-report-dec23.jpg', 'paylink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/lOBtEDD', 'abroadlink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/z0Nw0OJo', 'package' => ''), 'nov-23' => array('month' => 'November \' 23', 'description' => 'We see US Yields ripe for a fall. The US2Yr (5.08%) has Resistance at 5.25% and 5.35%. While these hold, there can be chances of a break below 5.0%. If so, the 2Yr can come down towards 4.5%, maybe 4.25%.', 'report' => 'https://kshitij.com/images/us-treasuries-report-nov23.jpg', 'paylink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/YWC0oe5vLg', 'abroadlink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/XAYpNnOKI', 'package' => ''), 'oct-23' => array('month' => 'October \' 23', 'description' => 'Since 2006, generally a rising Real Yield is accompanied by falling Gold and falling Real Yield by rising Gold, except for the periods marked in the two broken red boxes. In these two times we see Gold rising despite a sharp increase in the Real Yields.', 'report' => 'https://kshitij.com/images/us-treasuries-report-oct23.jpg', 'paylink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/IHZaDYdVXG', 'abroadlink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/0N4w9lBOL', 'package' => ''), 'sep-23' => array('month' => 'September \' 23', 'description' => 'We have been examining the market’s Inflation Expectation (as represented by the 10Yr Breakeven Inflation Expectation or BIE, currently at 2.33%) in our reports since May-23 and have said that the BIE can possibly remain above 2% and slowly rise towards 2.50-3.0% in the coming months. It is up from 2.18% in Apr-23. Can it rise further?', 'report' => 'https://kshitij.com/images/us-treasuries-report-sep23.jpg', 'paylink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/2WAlD2M0', 'abroadlink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/eAIwaMnWRn', 'package' => ''), 'aug-23' => array('month' => 'August \' 23', 'description' => 'The US Unemployment Rate is on the cusp of a rise. Whenever the Unemployment Y/Y% change has risen from sub-zero levels and moved higher (as in Dec-2000 and Jun-2007, see vertical green lines), Unemployment Rate has subsequently risen. ', 'report' => 'https://kshitij.com/images/us-treasuries-report-aug23.jpg', 'paylink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/dPMBuMefAr', 'abroadlink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/mZwpo48SD', 'package' => ''), 'july-23' => array('month' => 'July \' 23', 'description' => 'We’d said that the Hourly Earnings Growth Rate (HEGR) may remain above 3.5%. The HEGR has remained between 4.30-4.35% for March-May. It might dip to 4.25%-4.11% in June-July, but still remain above 3.5%. ', 'report' => 'https://kshitij.com/images/us-treasuries-report-july23.jpg', 'paylink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/BFM5FTS', 'abroadlink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/LoXuJe5XQV', 'package' => ''), 'june-23' => array('month' => 'June \' 23', 'description' => 'In our Apr-23 report (27-Mar-23, US10Yr @ 3.44%) we had said that (A) the FED’s 2% inflation target is an arbitrary number which was possibly based on the benign post-1980 world of economic co-operation and declining inflation and that (B) it would seem difficult for CPI to keep coming down towards the Fed’s targets of 3.3% (2023), 2.5% (2024) and 2.1% (2025).It is good to see our view being echoed by marquee names like Mohamed A. El-Erian and Gita Gopinath, First MD of IMF.', 'report' => 'https://kshitij.com/images/us-treasuries-report-june23.jpg', 'paylink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/TRNunmd', 'abroadlink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/0M4JdR7Jm', 'package' => ''), 'may-23' => array('month' => 'May \' 23', 'description' => 'Since our last report (27-Mar-23, US 10Yr @ 3.38%) US Yields have moved up across the Curve despite the FED raising rates by only 25bp instead of the expected 50bp. Can US10Yr dip to 3.0% before rise?', 'report' => 'https://kshitij.com/images/us-treasuries-report-may23.jpg', 'paylink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/kT0A7qfs', 'abroadlink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/UiUrcC97', 'package' => ''), 'apr-23' => array('month' => 'April \' 23', 'description' => 'Since our last report (01-Mar-23, US 10Yr @ 3.95%) the collapse of the SVB and other banks in the USA, the collapse of Credit Suisse in Switzerland, and the teetering of Deutsche Bank in Germany, along with the rescue plans for each of them, have dominated the news.', 'report' => 'https://kshitij.com/images/us-treasuries-report-apr23.jpg', 'paylink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/xfLQagYW', 'abroadlink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/BM8uvT1KZ', 'package' => ''), 'mar-23' => array('month' => 'March \' 23', 'description' => 'In our last report (30-Jan-23, US 10Yr @ 3.53%), we had said that a recession (which was the talk of the market at that time), might kick-in earliest by Oct-23 and as such, the FED may not cut rates in 2023. We had also said that the US 2Yr could still rise towards 5.25%, while the US 10Yr could still rise towards 4.00%. Since then, the talk of recession has faded away and instead the talk is about the persistence of inflation', 'report' => 'https://kshitij.com/images/us-treasuries-report-mar23.jpg', 'paylink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/kZFH5A0ku5', 'abroadlink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/g5OA9muO', 'package' => ''), 'feb-23' => array('month' => 'February \' 23', 'description' => 'Since our last report (27-Dec-22, US 10Yr @ 3.75%) the Core PCE (4.42%, Dec-22) has dipped further. The entire Yield Curve has shifted lower by 14-26 bp since the last report. In particular, the US 10Yr dipped to 3.36% on 19-Jan, almost in line with our expectation of a fall towards 3.25%. The 10-2Yr Spread (-0.69%) has dipped again seeing a of -0.72% in January, in line with our target of -1.0%.', 'report' => 'https://kshitij.com/images/us-treasuries-report-feb23.jpg', 'paylink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/mzG9JjBoZ7', 'abroadlink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/6JtiOlOqW', 'package' => ''), 'jan-23' => array('month' => 'January \' 23', 'description' => 'Since our last report (25-Nov-22, US 10Yr @ 3.67%) the US Fed Funds Rate has risen by 50bp in Dec, in line with expectation. The Core PCE (4.68%, Nov-22) has dipped below 5%, mirroring the dip in the Core CPI. The US 10Yr dipped to 3.46% on 08-Dec but has risen well since then, going against our expectation of a fall towards 3%. The 10-2Yr Spread (-0.57%) has surprised by bouncing well from -0.8% (02-Dec) instead of falling further towards our target of -1.0%.', 'report' => 'https://kshitij.com/images/us-treasuries-report-jan23.jpg', 'paylink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/lmmdHjON4', 'abroadlink' => 'https://rzp.io/l/ioTvj3Yg', 'package' => '')))) in ReportController.php line 120
  3. at ReportController->showUSTReport('may-20')
  4. at call_user_func_array(array(object(ReportController), 'showUSTReport'), array('whichmonth' => 'may-20')) in Controller.php line 55
  5. at Controller->callAction('showUSTReport', array('whichmonth' => 'may-20')) in ControllerDispatcher.php line 44
  6. at ControllerDispatcher->dispatch(object(Route), object(ReportController), 'showUSTReport') in Route.php line 203
  7. at Route->runController() in Route.php line 160
  8. at Route->run() in Router.php line 559
  9. at Router->Illuminate\Routing\{closure}(object(Request)) in Pipeline.php line 30
  10. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Routing\{closure}(object(Request)) in SubstituteBindings.php line 41
  11. at SubstituteBindings->handle(object(Request), object(Closure)) in Pipeline.php line 148
  12. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Pipeline\{closure}(object(Request)) in Pipeline.php line 53
  13. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Routing\{closure}(object(Request)) in VerifyCsrfToken.php line 65
  14. at VerifyCsrfToken->handle(object(Request), object(Closure)) in Pipeline.php line 148
  15. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Pipeline\{closure}(object(Request)) in Pipeline.php line 53
  16. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Routing\{closure}(object(Request)) in ShareErrorsFromSession.php line 49
  17. at ShareErrorsFromSession->handle(object(Request), object(Closure)) in Pipeline.php line 148
  18. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Pipeline\{closure}(object(Request)) in Pipeline.php line 53
  19. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Routing\{closure}(object(Request)) in StartSession.php line 64
  20. at StartSession->handle(object(Request), object(Closure)) in Pipeline.php line 148
  21. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Pipeline\{closure}(object(Request)) in Pipeline.php line 53
  22. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Routing\{closure}(object(Request)) in AddQueuedCookiesToResponse.php line 37
  23. at AddQueuedCookiesToResponse->handle(object(Request), object(Closure)) in Pipeline.php line 148
  24. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Pipeline\{closure}(object(Request)) in Pipeline.php line 53
  25. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Routing\{closure}(object(Request)) in EncryptCookies.php line 59
  26. at EncryptCookies->handle(object(Request), object(Closure)) in Pipeline.php line 148
  27. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Pipeline\{closure}(object(Request)) in Pipeline.php line 53
  28. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Routing\{closure}(object(Request)) in Pipeline.php line 102
  29. at Pipeline->then(object(Closure)) in Router.php line 561
  30. at Router->runRouteWithinStack(object(Route), object(Request)) in Router.php line 520
  31. at Router->dispatchToRoute(object(Request)) in Router.php line 498
  32. at Router->dispatch(object(Request)) in Kernel.php line 174
  33. at Kernel->Illuminate\Foundation\Http\{closure}(object(Request)) in Pipeline.php line 30
  34. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Routing\{closure}(object(Request)) in TransformsRequest.php line 30
  35. at TransformsRequest->handle(object(Request), object(Closure)) in Pipeline.php line 148
  36. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Pipeline\{closure}(object(Request)) in Pipeline.php line 53
  37. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Routing\{closure}(object(Request)) in TransformsRequest.php line 30
  38. at TransformsRequest->handle(object(Request), object(Closure)) in Pipeline.php line 148
  39. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Pipeline\{closure}(object(Request)) in Pipeline.php line 53
  40. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Routing\{closure}(object(Request)) in ValidatePostSize.php line 27
  41. at ValidatePostSize->handle(object(Request), object(Closure)) in Pipeline.php line 148
  42. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Pipeline\{closure}(object(Request)) in Pipeline.php line 53
  43. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Routing\{closure}(object(Request)) in CheckForMaintenanceMode.php line 46
  44. at CheckForMaintenanceMode->handle(object(Request), object(Closure)) in Pipeline.php line 148
  45. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Pipeline\{closure}(object(Request)) in Pipeline.php line 53
  46. at Pipeline->Illuminate\Routing\{closure}(object(Request)) in Pipeline.php line 102
  47. at Pipeline->then(object(Closure)) in Kernel.php line 149
  48. at Kernel->sendRequestThroughRouter(object(Request)) in Kernel.php line 116
  49. at Kernel->handle(object(Request)) in index.php line 59