Since our last report (25-Nov-22, US 10Yr @ 3.67%) the US Fed Funds Rate has risen by 50bp in Dec, in line with expectation. The Core PCE (4.68%, Nov-22) has dipped below 5%, mirroring the dip in the Core CPI. The US 10Yr dipped to 3.46% on 08-Dec but has risen well since then, going against our expectation of a fall towards 3%. The 10-2Yr Spread (-0.57%) has surprised by bouncing well from -0.8% (02-Dec) instead of falling further towards our target of -1.0%.
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May'23 Monthly Forecast
Our May'23 Monthly Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
May '23 EURUSD Report
EURINR has been holding below resistance near 90.60 and finding it difficult to break above 90.60. Will the pair hold and decline eventually giving more weightage to the resistance near 90.60? Or can the sideways movement be considered as a temporary pause post which we may see a sharp break out on the upside? ...Read More
June'23 Crude Oil Report
Brent has been ranged since Dec-22 within $90-70 region. OPEC production cut has been implemented this month and the impact can be assessed in the next OPEC meeting scheduled on 4th June 2023.Possibility of economic slowdown could weigh ... Read More
June'23 US Treasury Report
In our Apr-23 report (27-Mar-23, US10Yr @ 3.44%) we had said that (A) the FED’s 2% inflation target is an arbitrary number which was possibly based on the benign post-1980 world of economic co-operation and declining inflation. It is good to see our view being .... Read More