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February ' 23 US Treasury Report

Since our last report (27-Dec-22, US 10Yr @ 3.75%) the Core PCE (4.42%, Dec-22) has dipped further. The entire Yield Curve has shifted lower by 14-26 bp since the last report. In particular, the US 10Yr dipped to 3.36% on 19-Jan, almost in line with our expectation of a fall towards 3.25%. The 10-2Yr Spread (-0.69%) has dipped again seeing a of -0.72% in January, in line with our target of -1.0%.

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