In our June report, we had called for a fall towards 1.5090, as compared to the then rate of 1.5354. Our view proved correct, as the pair has subsequently plunged and is currently near 1.4200.
3-4 Months: Fall towards 1.3900 and then a bounce from there
USD-SGD has had a very sharp fall in the last 6 months, and is currently trading at its lowest level in over 10 years. The pair still looks bearish and a further fall towards its 1995 low of 1.3905 cannot be ruled out over the next 3-4 months.
However, one must also note that the pair is oversold and some upward correction towards 1.4500 cannot be ruled out also. As such, from the current levels, the risk-reward ratio is equal.
In any case, a move above 1.4500 is required to signal that a rally towards 1.4900 is underway. Our preferred view is of a fall towards 1.3900 before a rally towards 1.4500.
6 Weeks: towards 1.3905
USD-SGD is currently trading near its lowest level in 10 years and continues to be bearish. Further fall towards 1.3900 cannot be ruled out over the next 6 weeks, keeping in mind the strong downward momentum that the pair is having currently.
A sustained move above 1.4350 is needed to question the potential for further downside over the next few weeks.
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