Our reliability has improved over the years from 35% in 2006 and 40% in 2008 to 72% now.
How many times do we get the direction right? Earlier, during 2006-2008 we were correct only 36% of the times. Since 2008, however, we are right on average 62% of the time.
This measures how far, numerically, our forecasts are from the actual rates that prevail later.
Our average error is down from 65% earlier to 3.5% now. Peak error is also down drastically from 12% to 6%.
We rate our monthly Dollar-Rupee forecasts as either Good [+1] or OK  or Bad [-1] based on a combination of the above two criteria and that is how we say our forecasts have a reliability of 72%.
We have been providing Reliability for the last 20 years and were ranked #1 worldwide by Bloomberg for our Rupee forecasts in Dec 2015. You may read more about that here.
Copyright © 2016 Kshitij, All Rights Reserved