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FX Thoughts - Evening II - 16-May-2012 Evening Edition 1750 IST or 1220 GMT or 0820 EST

USD-CHF @ 0.9425/28...Bullish. Buy dips

R: 0.9460 S: 0.9400 / 0.9365 / 0.9300 Dollar-Swiss is not gaining strength to rise past its Resistance at 0.9460. At the same time we do not see much downside momentum as well. Our overall bullish view remains the same. We see Support at 0.9400 which is expected to hold. On the upside a strong rise past 0.9460 can open doors for fruther rally to 0.9800-9900 or even higher. Limit Buy Order: Buy USD 10K at 0.9400, SL 0.9330, TP Open

GBP-USD @ 1.5931/34...Trend Reversal?

R: 1.6000 / 1.6050 S: 1.5900-5880 / 1.5800 Cable extended its downmove further breaking below its 55-Week-MA (1.5940) to a low of 1.5889 and is now bouncing back from its low. The strong uptrend since Jan-12 has been broken now and a failure to bounce back above 1.6000 will confirm a reversal. On the downside some Support is there near 1.5880 and break below it can drag it further down towards 1.5800 or even 1.5700 going forward. We will have to wait and see. We got stopped out of the Short positions entered at 1.6005 and 1.5980 losing a total of 120 pips.

AUD-USD @ 0.9943/46...Immediate Resistance at 0.9950

R: 0.9950 / 1.0000-15 S: 0.9900 / 0.9800 Aussie has risen back above 0.9900. However, it has good Resistance near current levels at 0.9950 which needs to be broken for it to extend its bounce back move further. Failure to rise above 0.9950 can drag it down once again below 0.9900 and can see 0.9800-9700 on the downside. On the other hand a strong rise past 0.9950 can take the pair further up towards 1.0000-15 in the coming sessions. We will have wait and see what happens. Holding: AUD 10K Short at 0.9890, SL 0.9965, TP 0.9810 AUD 10K Short at 0.9935, SL 1.0015, TP 0.9810 Happy Trading!

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